South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan is now at a turning point. After a UN supported war, the country to be will experience elections in 2010 and a referendum on its independence in 2011.
For the UN, the direction is simple: now it’s time for development, stabilisation in other words.
For the Sudanese, the direction is less clear.
First of all, neither Khartoum nor Juba has interest in going for elections and even less for the referendum. Since last year, South is experiencing a backfire of ethnical violence. Every fingers are pointing to Khartoum, the big bad wolf. But a closer look to those violence shows that reality, as usual, is less simple.
- All clashes started when the SPLM, the political wing of SPLA, started to crack down. The creation of SPLM-DC, a dissident wing of SPLM seems to have been the fire starter.
- All clashes involved, at the early stage, Dinka, the SPLA major ethnic group, and former SAF supporter ethnic groups.
- If Khartoum has advantages to destabilize GoSS, SPLA also has good reasons to undermine the civil SPLM administration. The soldier time is ending and most of them may loose their place in the sun with the elections.
- After nearly 50years of war, traditional social mechanisms are completely dysfunctional. The youth is actually marginalised by the actual in power “mature”/pre elders’ class. As war has destabilise economy and put on their knees most of the population, the actual ruling age class is trying to recover by increasing dotes and traditional transactions. This leads to a de facto marginalisation of the youth that takes guns to recover what they are denied: the right to marry and be a man.
- Education in rural areas is extremely low among men and even lower among girls and women.
- The infamous LRA, the main source of organised violence, has been pushed away in neighbouring countries where they have a safe even in an inaccessible zone. They are now split in dozen of small groups hunted down by at least 3 armed forces.
- Guns and ammunitions are flying around all over the place. Some say it is Khartoum while others are saying, well Khartoum is just fuelling the fire and tacking advantage of the incapability of the GoSS to stabilise and impose law and order.
- While the house is falling apart, GoSS and NPC are preparing for war as rumours of unilateral declaration of independence from South Sudan are becoming the official speech. Not even talking about Darfur.
- Regional powers are looking at South Sudan with a melted opinion on the creation of that non ruled country. Egypt is looking at containing the Muslim Brotherhood and extremist opposition while democratic change could just bring them to power in his old friend North Sudan. Kenyan and Ugandan governments and criminal groups are looking at South Sudan as an open land ready for colonisation.
- The population is 90% rural living on agriculture with average revenues far below poverty level.
The list is long and this one is not exhaustive.
The US interest are not low in Sudan and stabilizing South Sudan is highly necessary for the region.
Somehow, it does remind me other conflicts, without the presence of international forces. As the time is to stabilisation, South Sudan is an open air laboratory for it.
The question is simple: can we just do it? And if yes: how?

[davidbfpo]

Not the best indicator, but a year ago in part of the UK there was a move amidst the entire Sudanese expatriate community to promote the elections and referendum. Rivalry alas led to some disorder and to the local police's bemusement it was all settled quickly and the unity tottered on.

I don't know if this expatriate community has influence back home; nor does it appear to be financially empowered.

Optimimsm here is very different to on the ground reality.

My questions are: will the UN contributors keep their military and civil contingents in place if violence escalates? Does their mandate involve an active role?

davidbfpo

[Tom Odom]

MA

as a longterm Sudan watcher, I would say the short answer is No, we cannot as long as we persist in supporting the illusion of a single Sudan.

Tom

[M-A Lagrange]

Well, the question of an active participation of the UN in security, even for stabilisation, is a pure theoretical one. The South Sudan mission is under chapter 6, with the possibility if there is huge deterrence of the situation to use chap 7 privileges.
But the SRSG reaffirmed that up to now and for the future, UNMIS would implement a full chap 6. In clear a wait and see UN mission. The other problem is manpower. No one is really ready to provide more troops for SS.
Also, if things go bad, UN will redraw. And that is what the oldschool UN South Sudan wants: to go back to Naerobi and its confort (we are far from people centric concerns). Basically if violence errupt, UN loose their mandate...

So UN tried to push, and is still trying, SPLA to intervene into cattle wars. But as said previously, there are numerous question marks on the role of SPLA into starting the clashes. For me, it looks like calling the incendiary guy to play fireman.
On the other side, GoSS is trying hard (they say) to show they do have control. But… If they are not as bad as FARDC, they not too far from them in terms of discipline. Sometime, I even wonder what they have in mind. They contracted Kenyan army to train them. I have pretty low knowledge of Kenyans army records, but still, SAF in Khartoum must be laughing.

[M-A Lagrange]

From Sudan tribune Who and what is militia in South Sudan?

In Warrap state, according the media reports, heavy artilleries were used in fighting involving two Dinka clans. In Lakes state Agar-Dinka had recently attacked the SPLA convoy destroying a number of their vehicles using Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs). In Juba’s weapons search it is reported that even anti-air craft weapons plus RPGs, PKMs, etc., were found in the hands of civilians. So if the Lou-Nuer attackers used such type of weapons it should not be something new to any body.


also, I was talking with people from Human Rights about LRA. They asked me my solution. I answered: hunt them, kill them and when you catch one alive put him in jail.
their solution has been: let's go for reintegration...

Why can't we call a dog a dog? A civil war a civil war and not development with pre-election difficulties or war criminals just misleaded youth?

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan denies recruiting former US officials as lobbyists

First announce with big highlights, North Sudan is denying now recruiting US officials as lobbyists. Well, once thing is sure, they need some in DC to be on their side.

Kiir accuses Sudan’s ruling NCP of arming Southern militias

On the other side, What ever President Kiir may say, the last reports from Small Arms Survey are pointing out the leakage of weapons and ammunition from SPLA Stock piles. When you want your dog dead: accuse him of rage…

Bentiu clashes purely SPLA affair: official spokesmanAnd just to confirm that they are really far from capable, SPLA started to fight each others, turning a so called army of clowns, into a gang of militia.

But we are going for elections, free and fair…

[Tom Odom]

And in the category of unending conflict

Africa’s Last, Next War
Darfur isn't the worst crisis in Africa. In fact, it's not even the worst crisis in Sudan.

Arab horsemen toting Kalashnikovs provided by the Sudanese government thunder into a town. Women are raped in their huts. Men are gunned down as they flee for the bush, and children are packed off on the back of the raiders' horses while stolen cattle are herded away to be sold.

It's a scene that's become all too familiar for those who've followed the crisis in the western Sudanese region of Darfur over the past five years. But this isn't Darfur circa 2005. It's any one of hundreds of villages in southern Sudan in the 1980s. Or 1992, or 1997, or 2003, and quite possibly 2010.

Before there were Save Darfur panties or George Clooney-led Darfur peace missions, Sudan was engulfed in a much longer and more destructive civil war between Khartoum's Islamist government and the country's animist and Christian south. The most recent phase of that war, from 1983 until 2005, killed an estimated 2 million civilians—more than six times the number thought to have been killed in Darfur over the past six years. Now, as U.S. attention wanders, it's coming back, and it will be worse than ever.

Good article and here is the money line:

But that argument assumes Sudan, as currently conceived, is a functioning state—which it isn't. Counting the two failed pacts signed with Darfur's Sudan Liberation Army and eastern Sudanese rebels in 2006, "the whole country has ceased to exist and become a collection of peace agreements," says Medhane Tadesse, an East Africa analyst for the Ethiopia-based Center for Policy Research and Dialogue. "And [Khartoum] knows these peace agreements won't be implemented.

[davidbfpo]

Moderators Note

In response to MA's critique that some disturbance in this thread by a series of posts speculating on the role of the external, or great powers in Africa, in places like Zimbabwe and what exactly will China do? I have created a new thread for the discussion and moved some of the posts to here and please discuss the issues there, not in this Sudanese thread.

The new thread is 'The role of non-African powers in Africa: a discussion':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=10188

[M-A Lagrange]

Some reactions from various countries in the world.
And sorry, still nothing from China. But does China reaction on democratic opening really count? Let say yes but not that much in fact as they just target natural resources and will support any kind of regime which is commercially favorable to them, democratic or not.

African and Arabs organisations praise the conduct of Sudanese elections

"We cannot say that the Sudanese elections have met international standards, but that does not reduce what has happened, which is an important transition," said Salah Halima the head of AL mission in Khartoum today.
"What happened in Sudan was a historical event and a great achievement for Sudanese people," said Kunle Adeyemi, who is spokesperson of the AU observer mission in Sudan chaired by John Kufuor the former President of Ghana. "Looking into the fact this is a country that had not had a multi-party election for almost a generation... to say they are free and fair, to the best of our knowledge we have no reason to think the contrary," he added.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34808

Russia says Sudan elections fair by ’African standards’
The elections that were concluded in Sudan last week should be judged by African standards and not European ones, a senior Russian official said.
"In particular, voting papers were delivered late to polling stations. And polling stations themselves did not open on time. The names of some candidates on the lists were distorted or had the wrong symbols," Margelov told Interfax news agency.
"This country is just emerging from a state of war. Moreover, it seems European experts shouldn’t be applying their observations to the whole country - there is information that for security reasons they did not go to Darfur," he added.
Margelov also said that the opinion of the EU’s observers to the effect that the elections "did not meet the key requirements of the electoral process" were too categorical.
Margelov said the elections in Sudan should be judged by African and not European standards.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34819

South Africa criticizes Sudan’s rush to elections at an "inopportune" time

"It is a great concern. Sudan shares borders with 10 other African states, therefore... if it implodes... it destabilizes many other African countries. So it is in our interests to contribute towards peace and stability in Sudan" Motlanthe said.
"A number of... parties pulled out of the election. That in itself already creates circumstances for the election outcomes not to be accepted by all because they have these concerns about aspects of the preparations. The conditions are not ideal," he said. "These elections could not have happened at a more inopportune time."
"One would have asked for more time for the peace process to take root, as well as the outstanding question relating to the comprehensive peace agreement with the South to be addressed. Then the country as a whole could have gone to a better election," he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34807

US says Sudan elections ’not fair and free’, shifts focus to 2011 referendum
"This was not a free and fair election," said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "It did not, broadly speaking, meet international standards."
"That said, I think we recognize that the election is a very important step" toward carrying out a 2005 peace deal that gave the south autonomy, a share of oil revenues and a route to independence via referendum by January 2011, he told reporters.
Crowley said many of those elected in the Sudanese poll, however flawed it may have been, would play important roles in whether "we have a credible referenda process that, quite honestly, is likely to yield the emergence of a new country."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34817


It is interresting to see our Russian friend complying with AU and Arab Union statement. Particion of Sudan is also for them an opportunity to retake ground in Africa and counter China in what used to be their play yard... Especially the "Arab" Africa.
It is interresting to see how Sudan destiny is becoming another Berlin conference of 21 century.


To please our ecowarriors friends and to look a little more on the non oil issues, as it was done before, I would like to have a look at water.
I did previously flag the issue of agriculture and will of Arab countries to turn North Sudan in a gigantic wheat plant country. This can only be done with water. And negociations around water are not that easy with non "arab" African countries of the Nil sub region.

Egypt and Sudan approach Nile basin countries on need for cooperation
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his Sudanese counterpart, Omar al-Bashir have sent messages to their counterparts in the Nile Basin countries to invite them to set up a commission for the development of relations between them and financing of joint projects, Egyptian media said here Thursday.

http://www.apanews.net/public/spip.php?article122374

That was on 16/04

Well, since the results of the negociations were not that good in fact.
Egypt, refering to the 1929 water sharing treaty signed with UK, claim to own Nil water. A 1959 treaty allows to Egypt nearly 87% of the nile water.
Egypt minister of Water even leveled the issue of Nil negociation to national security.
(sorry, the link is in French, I could not find one in English but it does exist, I think on Al Jazeera.)
http://www.leblogfinance.com/2010/04...nationale.html

Eco wars, as ecologicaly (ecology as politic agenda) protracted, may be the new African issue in the coming years. As I was describing in previous post, Sudan secession is not only a oil/ethnical question. It is also a regional ecological resources management question.
This aspect of the crises (in Sudan) is fairly new (please, no climat refugees comment. For those who may see something in this, please go back to your history books and you'll discover that Darfur issue is more than 20 years old.). Or at least not taken in account in the CPA and the signatories parties. But the world food crises passed by and Countries as Uganda or Kenya do neet to secure food production areas such as South Sudan green belt.
So do Egypt and the Arab countries from Arab peninsula.
Sudan secession is no more just a story of oil and religious rights...

[Jedburgh]

CIGI, 20 Apr 10: Security Sector Reform Monitor: Southern Sudan

This edition of the Security Sector Reform Monitor: Southern Sudan will explore disarmament and security issues in Southern Sudan with an emphasis on the community level, examining how internal and external dynamics contribute to human insecurity. Civilian disarmament is an intractable problem that was not addressed explicitly in the CPA. The problems posed by small arms in Southern Sudan are enormous and current measures to contain their impact are inadequate and, in fact, undermine the credibility of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS).

[JMA]

A quote: "The elections that were concluded in Sudan last week should be judged by African standards and not European ones, a senior Russian official said."...

That statement would be considered outrageously racist where I come from. Yet the Russians think they can get away with it?

[M-A Lagrange]

JMA,

I fully agree on the fact that it is racist. I am also ashamed that such statements are cautioned by African countries. The will to be seen different is a good reason to lower the standards. And this is one of the many problems in stabilization.
As long as standards will be seen as a foreign thing and process will be done to comply with foreigners view/interrest/funding opportunities, this cannot work. The ownership of a stabilization process starts will the recognition of egal needs/rights for any African populations (or any non "western like" culture).

In that sense the Sudan elections are interresting. Both North or South have agreed to have low standards. But they also agreed on the same level of low standards. And the worst, in Russia position, is that most of African countries will find this statement relevant and clever because it goes with their will to portrait them selves as different.
This is probably the main issue here: ownership of a non natural process at its highest level. How build ownership of a process which is seen as an artificial tool and obstacle to reach war end (secession in the case of South Sudan).

[M-A Lagrange]

If, as likely, South Sudan decides to secede from the North at its January 2011 self-determination referendum, it will need support from Sudan’s neighbours to ensure the decision is respected and new conflict is prevented.

http://www.presseafricaine.info/ext/...isisgroup.org/

The ICG on last elections: A MUST READ!!!!

[SWJ Blog]

Insurgencies in South Sudan: A Mandatory Path to Build a Nation?

Entry Excerpt:

Insurgencies in South Sudan:
A Mandatory Path to Build a Nation?
by Marc-Andre Lagrange

Download The Full Article: Insurgencies in South Sudan

The 2010 elections in Sudan were more than just a formal exercise for the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLM/A). It was for both of them the ultimate test of the capacity of SPLM to turn from an armed insurgent/liberation movement into a government supported by a national army and set the base for separation from Khartoum regime. Immediately after its first elections, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) had to face two small scale insurgencies in Jonglei State. Led by General George Athor and David Yaw Yaw, those two insurgencies, despite their apparent limited scale, had a serious destabilizing potential for the first elected government of South Sudan.

Download The Full Article: Insurgencies in South Sudan

Marc-Andre Lagrange is humanitarian and relief aid expert specializing in the conflict zones of Africa. He worked on the ground throughout the last decade mainly in Central Africa.



--------
Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/07/212383.htm

Political Situation in South Sudan
July 24, 2013

The United States is deeply concerned by the risk to stability posed by South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s decision to dismiss Vice President Riek Machar, the members of his cabinet, deputy ministers, and a number of police brigadier generals. President Kiir has also relieved Pa'gan Amum, the Secretary General of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.as...=#.UrZZ-Y2A1Ms

South Sudan: assailants attack UN base sheltering desperate civilians

19 December 2013 – Unknown assailants attacked a United Nations base in South Sudan today, possibly killing or injuring civilians who had sought refuge inside during violent clashes between Government forces and rebels, with the number of people fleeing to UN installations now reaching 35,000.

“UNMISS is doing everything it can, within its means and in a very fluid situation, to protect civilians, as well as United Nations and international personnel on the ground,” a statement issued by Mr. Ban’s spokesperson said. “There are indications that civilians may have been killed and wounded in the attack, but this remains to be verified. Should these reports prove true, those responsible must be held accountable for their crimes.”

At the time, 43 Indian peacekeepers, six UN police advisers and two UN civilian staffers were present at the base. About 30 South Sudanese had sought shelter from the turmoil plaguing areas of Akobo County, the Mission said in a statement.

[Bill Moore]

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...72022785976430

U.S. Military Aircraft Hit By Gunfire in South Sudan

Four Wounded on Mission to Evacuate Americans From Town Seized by Renegade Troops

The three Osprey aircraft were hit by gunfire as they approached the landing zone at Bor, a town seized by renegade troops earlier this week, said Wayne Perry, a spokesman for the U.S. Africa Command in Stuttgart, Germany. He said it wasn't clear what group had fired on the aircraft. The Osprey is a plane that turns into a helicopter for takeoff and landing.

The White House reported that the U.S. service members who were wounded are in stable condition.

Bor has been the scene of heavy fighting since Wednesday. On Thursday a U.N. base there was overrun by thousands of armed men. The attackers killed two Indian peacekeepers and at least 20 civilians, the U.N. peacekeeping mission said.

The American citizens in Bor aren't in immediate danger, Mr. Perry said, adding that he didn't know when the next evacuation attempt would take place. He didn't know how many U.S. citizens were stuck in the town.

He said the troops taking part in the evacuation mission were separate from a force of 45 that President Barack Obama ordered to South Sudan earlier in the week to help safeguard the embassy and citizens in Juba.

[carl]

Bill:

Can and/or do the Osprey's have door guns or ramp guns so they can shoot back?

[Bill Moore]

Carl,

They can mount a weapon on the ramp, and if memory serves me right they have door guns in the Air Force (Special Operations) version which is the CV-22, not sure what the Marines mount on their version of the V-22 which is the MV-22. They were just coming into Afghanistan during my tour there, so while I saw them, I never flew in one. No doubt lots of guys in SWJ have first hand experience with them and can answer your question. I do recall during the V-22 troubled development phase that one of the issues was how they should be armed.

Technology is always improving, so this comment may be outdated, but it has been my experience that suppressive fire from door gunners (both window and ramp) is just that, it is suppressive fire that isn't very accurate. I know you don't want to hear this, but if someone is shooting at you from within a crowd of unarmed civilians your options are somewhat limited, unless the rules of engagement allow that type of response.

I don't know if SOF or Marines mounted the non-combatant evacuation (NEO) in Sudan, so I don't what version of V-22 went in, and since the weapons are optional, I don't know if they had weapons mounted. Despite the troubled development period, by most accounts the V-22 does give us some pretty good capabilities we didn't have previously.

video link showing tail mounted weapon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZN1EBN5z1I

[davidbfpo]

A short backgrounder, from someone who has been working in South Sudan, this summary says enough:

A power-grab by rebels would come with huge civilian casualties and also set a bad precedent in a country with long ethnic rivalries, lacking a professional military and with an armed civilian population.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/john-on...acy-of-neglect

I note the UN peacekeepers have taken casualties, as they are Indian soldiers one wonders if this will affect the debate back home on participation. India contributes a third of UNMISS military mission, with battallion groups from: Kenya, Mongolia, Nepal & Rwanda. I note there are (were) four US military observers and twelve police officers.

BBC is now reporting the rebels have seized control of the province where the oil is. The link has six useful map:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25487084

[carl]

I know you don't want to hear this, but if someone is shooting at you from within a crowd of unarmed civilians your options are somewhat limited, unless the rules of engagement allow that type of response.

Bill:

I know a little about all that, so I don't mind hearing anything. Most is learned from things not wanted anyway.

Stan:

Merry Christmas too!