South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

Three people killed in an attack in Pibor
May 27, 2010 (BOR) – Three people are dead and at least five are injured following a last week attack in Lokurnyang in Jonglei’s Pibor County, security sources said.
Speaking to Sudan Tribune from Bor, the capital of Jonglei, on Tuesday, a security official confirmed that armed men loyal to David Yauyay, the defeated legislative candidate of the United Democratic Front (UDF) carried out the attack on May 23.
The security official discussed intelligence reports on the condition of anonymity.
Other sources have stated that several other assaults blamed on followers of Mr. Yauyau have resulted in unconfirmed casualties and tensions remain high.
James Buret, a UDF member who contested and lost in the national elections in April, told the Sudan Tribune by phone from Pibor that Mr. Yauyau reactions to the electoral are unilateral.
"After the election results, everyone left for their area and whatever happens after that is not UDF’s decision," Mr. James said about Yauyau’s military complaints on alleged electoral fraud.
A source in Pibor says the number of youth supporting Yauyau is estimated at 10 but other reports put the marauding groups higher.
After attacking Lokurnyang, the group headed towards Gadiang , located between Twic East, Duk, Uror and Pibor Counties, another source claims. It appears that Mr. Yauyau is seeking to merge his men with General George Athor Deng of the SPLA who is also accused of confronting the regional army in the last few weeks.
Mr. Athor, a former deputy chief of staff in the Southern Sudan army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), was a main rival to Jonglei’s governer, Kuol Manyang , in April’s polls but lost with a wide margin to the incumbent leader from the SPLM that rules the semi-autonomous region. Athor is on the run after being accused of attacking an army base in Dolieb Hills, Upper Nile State on April 30.
Tension is mounting in Jonglei State following the elections as defeated politicians resort to military means to address their post-election frustrations.
Equally important, the Bor – Juba road has registered increasing raids. Two people were killed last Saturday when gunmen fired at a passenger’s car. The May 22 ambush between Mongala and Geimeza comes a week after similar attack left four people dead. As a result, land transport is loose and a number of business trucks are stranded in Juba.
Jonglei State was marred with inter-tribal cattle rustling in 2009 as well as attacks on Bor—Juba road that later fueled clashes between Mundari-Bor pastoralists leaving hundreds dead in both cases. The Government of Southern Sudan vowed at the time to halt similar future incidents.
With seven months left until the referendum on self-determination in the underdeveloped south Sudan, the journey to January 2011, at the moment, is shaky.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35216


The question here is: does nonkinetic approach fuel insurgencies?
A very actual debate in deed. Especially as it seems that Mr Yauyau has more than 10 armed supporters and is linking with General Athor.
If a national force has the capacity to crush an emerging insurgency why should they not do it? We do come back to the importance of populace as clausewitzian center. The only reason for a national force to not crush an emerging insurgency being the risk of loosing populace support and for the government its legitimacy.
The real question behind being: can a COIN afford electoral fraud?
Personnally, the answer would be no. Not because it is against my principles (it is) but because it does have much larger counter productive effects than having to deal with authorities actually representative and representing population. Also, it is against Thompson principles... But I leave this for the scholars.