South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[William F. Owen]

The Sudan exemple is at contrary the perfect illustration of what you preach:

Well I hope I do not "preach." It does seem I have to repeat myself a lot because people do not seem to want to understand that killing is the primary instrument of warfare

If we extend that to the COIN theory and shift of battle field from politic to governance... The results may be fuzzy if you do not sustain you efforts defined at political level: adress people legitimate demands to win the battle of governance and build trust among the people on the government legitimacy.

a.) COIN Theory is a pseudo-science, composing a collection of very wholly concepts, that essentially fails to understand the enduring nature of war, and its relationship with politics based on fear, honour and interest.

b.) Rebels use "killing" to set forth a policy - NOTHING TO DO WITH GOVERNANCE, JUSTICE OR LEGITIMACY. It is killing for political gain.
The Government use force against the rebels is stop them gaining their political objective via violence.

We have to get over the "Oprah Winfrey" "Rebels have a Legitimate cause," crap. Rebels want political power and they want to use violence to get it.
When I was in Algeria in the mid-90's the GIA did not have a legitimate cause.
When I was in Sierra Leone, the RUF did not have a legitimate cause.
When I was in Thailand, the Rebels in the South did not have a legitimate cause.
Additionally, if you do have legitimate cause, the government should kill you, if you try to advance your cause via violence.

[M-A Lagrange]

SPLA chief calls on General Nyuol to bury election differences
In a meeting he had on Thursday in Khartoum with General Dau and Sultan Abdalbagi Ayii Akol, among other political leaders from Northern Bahr el Ghazal state, Kiir called for forgiveness saying the South had a lot of issues to resolve as a people with one identity.
“We have a lot to resolve together with one identity as South Sudanese people in order to create conducive political ground for conduct of the referendum and other post referendum arrangements,” he told Dau.
“I would prefer [that] you come to Juba to once again meet and discuss with you some other issues and how to forge new understanding,” Kiir said, adding that elections are now over.
Gen. Dau was just among other several independent candidates who contested for gubernatorial positions and lost in their respective states. Another General, George Athor Deng, has rebelled against the government after losing the race to his main rival, Kuol Manyang Juuk, in Jonglei state.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35447

General Athor says none of his soldiers were captured by SPLA
June 18, 2010, (AKON) – A former senior army general in the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has said none of his soldiers has been captured by the government forces in Southern Sudan.
“Before our forces clashed with the SPLA forces at the reconnaissance on Wednesday, we had information that SPLA forces were in the area three hours walk from our location gathering military information about us. They were beating and threatening to kill local people who refused to cooperate with [them] in lying about us,” he further explained.
“Others did [cooperate with the SPLA] and those who did not want to do so were accused, and I am told they were the ones arrested and reported to have been our forces. Nobody has been captured from our forces. I repeat nobody has been captured or surrendered,” he said.
He also denied killing of any one of his soldiers after the recent clashes with the SPLA forces. “Our forces met and just exchanged fire with SPLA forces and did not kill anybody on our side. Those who went for reconnaissance on Wednesday returned with slight injuries. Some of them are not gunshot [wounds],” he said.
He earlier claimed to have coordinated the rebellion with the former Police Colonel Gatluak Gai in Unity state and David Yauyau in Pibor County of Jonglei state, adding that he has also been coordinating with some other army senior officers across the region.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35430

Wait and see...
But it is clear that SPLA has difficulties to do the shift from military driven political organisation to national army in the service of a civil political power...

[JMA]

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35447

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35430

Wait and see...
But it is clear that SPLA has difficulties to do the shift from military driven political organisation to national army in the service of a civil political power...

And if we learn anything from history the SPLA will not be able to make this shift...

[M-A Lagrange]

And if we learn anything from history the SPLA will not be able to make this shift...

Yes, there is some kind of curse on the rebel movements trying to become a political party.
But I believe it also partly ecause the international community always tries to make some kind of inclusive agreement to sign one general peace agreement with everyone not trying to find out who is really what.

[jmm99]

such as Mustafa Kemal, who can take a chaotic army in a chaotic nation, and turn that army into that nation's constitutional protector. Of course, today, his methods would be regarded as "unsound".

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

such as Mustafa Kemal, who can take a chaotic army in a chaotic nation, and turn that army into that nation's constitutional protector. Of course, today, his methods would be regarded as "unsound".

Regards

Mike

History tells us that rather than become the "nation's constitutional protector" it is likely that these same people will believe that through their efforts the country "owes them big" and even in some cases to the extent that they "own the country" what will happen here will be a balance somewhere in between.

[M-A Lagrange]

History tells us that rather than become the "nation's constitutional protector" it is likely that these same people will believe that through their efforts the country "owes them big" and even in some cases to the extent that they "own the country" what will happen here will be a balance somewhere in between.

Actually they already made the choice: they own the country...
That's why Gen Akhol is so upset about the people's choice.

[M-A Lagrange]

Extension of the Dispatch of Japanese Self-Defense Forces Personnel to the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS)


TOKYO, Japan, June 23, 2010/African Press Organization (APO)/ — On June 22 , the Cabinet made a decision to extend the dispatch of the two personnel of the Self-Defense Forces to the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) for another year.
Under the International Peace Cooperation Law, Japan has dispatched two Self-Defense Forces personnel to UNMIS as staff officers since October 2008. In response to the UN Security Council’s decision in April 2010 to extend the mandate of UNMIS for another year, the Government of Japan decided to extend the dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces personnel.
As a responsible member of the international community, Japan will contribute to the Sudan peace process and to further strengthening of bilateral relations by this deployment of Self-Defense Forces personnel to UNMIS. In addition, the Mission is expected to make an important contribution to the peace and stability of Africa as a whole and is thus considered significant.
(Reference 1) Overview of the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS)
On January 9, 2005, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed, ending the civil conflict between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army. In response, in March 2005 the UNMIS was established with the main purpose of supporting the implementation of the CPA (consisting of up to 10,000 military personnel, United Nations Security Council resolution 1590). In order to deal with the significant challenges pertaining to implementation of the CPA (demarcation of a North/South border, Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR), conducting referenda, etc.) the continued involvement of the international community is required in addition to the efforts by the directly involved parties.
(1) Date of establishment: March 24, 2005 (United Nations Security Council resolution 1590)
(2) Expiry date of mandate: April 30, 2011 (United Nations Security Council resolution 1919)
(3) Mandate
(a) Supporting the implementation of the CPA;
(b)Facilitation and coordination for the voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons;
(c) Humanitarian demining assistance, technical advice and coordination;
(d) Contribution to and coordination of international efforts to protect promote human rights and to protect civilians; and others
(4) Troop and Police Contributors (as of the end of May 2010) 67 countries (including the G8 (except France and Italy*), China, and Republic of Korea) Approximately 10,600 troops (*France and Italy have contributed troops in the past)


(Reference 2) The posts of the Japanese staff officers with UNMIS.
(1) Staff officer in the Logistics Planning Office, Force Headquarters.
(2) Staff officer/Data Base Manager in the Joint Mission Analysis Cell under the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General.

SOURCE
Japan – Ministry of Foreign Affairs

http://appablog.wordpress.com/2010/0...n-sudan-unmis/

Well, Japan has interresting investments on the Red Sea State...
The new threat for China in Africa: Japan and Korea.

[M-A Lagrange]

Cyprus holding Sudan bound ship carrying tanks
June 22, 2010 (WASHINGTON) — The Cyprus government disclosed today that it is investigating a Barbuda flagged cargo vessel that stopped for refueling on June 11 at its port of Limassol on suspicion that it is carrying weapons heading to Sudan which could potentially be a violation to UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.
The daily Phileleftheros, which broke the story, said the vessel was transporting tanks and large quantities of explosives, and was blocked after a tip-off from the United States. A spokesman at the U.S. embassy in Nicosia said Washington was not involved.
Phileleftheros said that the authorities in Cyprus are awaiting for a convincing explanation from the ship’s captain on the nature and destination of the cargo. The port police customs officers searched the ship and confirmed the presence of weapons on board.
However, the captain furnished documents showing that the tanks were destined for Singapore while the explosives were headed to Algeria.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35470

Sudan says Cyprus ship contains mining explosives not arms
"The boat contains explosives destined for Port Sudan, for mining firm Ariab which needs them to work a gold mine," Abdel-Baqi Al Gailani, Sudan’s minister responsible for mining, told Agence France Presse (AFP).
"It has nothing to do with the military" he told Reuters in a separate interview.
"Sudan has been importing explosives since the early 1990s to work this gold mine, and has never had any problems in the past. It’s the first time this has happened. It’s absurd," he said.
The mine at Hassay, 450 kilometers northeast of the capital Khartoum, is Sudan’s first - and only - gold mine.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35479

We will see… But actually there is in Scandinavia the trial of an oil company for its participation to the Sudan civil war: LUNDIN PETROLEUM
http://www.romandie.com/infos/news2/...1.048jmgj6.asp
(Unfortunately in French)

[M-A Lagrange]

Cyprus releases Sudan bound ship after two-week holdup
June 25, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The Cypriot authorities finally cleared a Barbuda flagged cargo vessel containing an explosive shipment bound for Sudan following two week investigation into whether that is considered a violation of arms embargo imposed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the European Union (EU).

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35491

And Uganda visit its neighbour:

Ugandan Ambassador to Sudan visits W. Equatoria
The Ugandan Ambassador to Sudan Madam Akech Okullu Betty escorted by the Uganda Consul General to Juba, Mr. Busha Ndinyenga and the Kenyan Consul to Juba Mr. Ibrahim Khamis Adam were highly received by Western Equatoria State Governor, Col Bangasi Joseph Bakosoro.
Addressing, the regional guests in his office at the state secretariat, Col Bakosoro said he is honored and privileged to have them in the State with good gestures of respect towards WES with a sign of togetherness as the great lakes region.
Col Bangasi appreciated their congratulatory message saying their coming to WES gives hope to the people as people concerned and caring for their fellow brothers and sisters being terrorized by the notorious LRA rebels for the past five years.
The governor stressed that, "amongst the ten States of Southern Sudan, WES has never enjoyed and experienced the CPA signed in 2005 due to the havoc and atrocities imported by the brutal LRA rebels."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35471
And as a result:

South Sudan army vows to clear LRA rebels
The regional government of Southern Sudan has intensified its military operations to uproot the Ugandan rebels of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) from the state of Western Equatoria.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35498

All this while in North Libya and Khartoum are finding a way to neutralise JEM the last group who did not sign Doha agreement.
I do not know if peace is on the way but power consolidation on both sides is productive:
Sudan says Libya’s expulsion of JEM chief
Sudan’s SPLM & NCP sign MOU on post-referendum arrangements
http://www.sudantribune.com/

[M-A Lagrange]

Blackwater to reach settlement with U.S. DOJ on violating Sudan sanctions
June 27, 2010 (WASHINGTON) – The U.S. defense contractor Blackwater Worldwide is negotiating with federal authorities on a settlement regarding violations of Sudan sanctions that took place since 2005, McClatchy Newspapers said in an investigative report.
Sudan has been under U.S. sanctions since 1997 though in 2006 the Bush administration lifted them in the South of the country and other areas with limited exceptions. The U.S. has been attempting to make sure that ease the impact of the sanctions on South Sudan which enjoys Washington’s backing.
After negotiating a $2 million draft contract to train South Sudan president Salva Kiir’s personal security detail, Blackwater in early 2007 drafted a detailed second proposal, valued at more than $100 million, to equip and train southern Sudan’s army.
Because the south lacked ready cash, Blackwater sought 50% of its untapped mineral wealth, a former senior U.S. official said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35511


Unrealistic Expectations: Current Challenges to Reintegration in Southern Sudan

This paper takes a critical look at the first, ongoing phase of the DDR process in Southern Sudan, and specifically at the reintegration component. It briefly outlines how DDR is currently implemented as well as its progress to date. It discusses the dynamics and challenges of reintegrating ex-combatants into local communities in light of the current security environment, and considers how to minimize risks of further destabilization and insecurity due to DDR. The paper also looks at the feasibility of social and economic reintegration, considering both the socio-economic context and the specific social composition of the first group of ex-combatants to be reintegrated. In addition, it reflects on lessons learned from the reintegration of returnees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to highlight both the challenges and the opportunities ahead for the successful and sustainable reintegration of ex-combatants.

http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/...RecordId=33352

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan’s NCP hints at delaying the 2011 referendum over border demarcation

July 29, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) today suggested that the 2011 referendum in South Sudan may have to be delayed until the border demarcation process is completed.
"That is a condition for all referendums around the world that might lead to the creation of a new sovereign state," Ibrahim Ghandour, a senior official of the National Congress Party (NCP), told Agence France Presse (AFP) today.
Ghandour added that failure to agree on a border could lead to a new conflict and in a separate interview with the BBC gave examples of the conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35802

This is no good...

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan’s Kiir says referendum must take place with or without borders
July 31, 2010 (JUBA) – The referendum in Southern Sudan will take place as scheduled on 9th January 2011 whether or not the North-South borders are demarcated, says the President of the semi-autonomous region.
General Salva Kiir Mayardit, who also holds the position of the First Vice President of Sudan, while addressing thousands of people during the commemoration of Martyrs Day on Friday, said the referendum cannot be delayed because of the non completion of the borders demarcations.
“There are those who are saying the referendum cannot be conducted before the demarcation of the borders. This is a very big lie,” Kiir told the crowd who responded with ululations and hand claps.
He said the borders were supposed to be conducted even before the elections but the other partner dragged its feet on the implementation of it. The elections were however conducted without borders, he added.
Kiir, who also holds the same view with his other senior colleagues in his government, seemed to have directly responded to the suggestion by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) on Thursday that the 2011 referendum in Southern Sudan may have to be delayed until the border demarcation process is completed.
The SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum accused the northern dominant ruling party, NCP, of historical violations agreements on self-determination. He said it was not for the first time that Khartoum’s NCP signed an agreement on self-determination.
“It was not the first time in the CPA that they [NCP] agreed on self-determination. They [Khartoum] agreed for the first time on self-determination in the 1997 Khartoum Peace Agreement and Fashoda agreement, but they violated it,” he told the cheering crowd, adding that the NCP is now beginning to talk of postponing the self-determination exercise if the North-South borders are not demarcated.
He said this was a lie and warned that whether Khartoum likes it or not the referendum must be conducted by the 9th January 2011.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35818

This goes in the right direction for a "peacefull" process...
But:

Attacks on staff force MSF to evacuate parts of Jonglei state
Apart from a small medical facility belonging to the Ministry of Health in Pibor town, home to some 150.000 people, MSF is the only primary healthcare provider in that part of Jonglei State.
The organization’s decision will deprive thousands of people from access to the much-needed medical assistance and leave the fate of over 160 malnourished children in jeopardy.
A month ago, an unknown armed group reportedly raided Gumuruk clinic, stealing boxes of a therapeutic ready-to-use food needed to treat severely malnourished children. A similar attack allegedly occurred three days later.
MSF said that four of its staffs traveling by boat from Pibor to Gumuruk were violently robbed by armed men on 27 July.
A statement released yesterday by the head of the MSF’s mission in south Sudan, Mr. Rob Mulder, said that attacks on staff left the organization “with no other choice than to suspend all medical activities in the area.”
“Attacks on our staff and clinics prevent us from providing essential medical aid. These incidents are totally unacceptable as they stop us from accessing patients and put our staff at risk,” the statement read.
The statement declared that though “we are fully committed to providing emergency medical aid to Gumuruk community, we have been “left with no other choice than to suspend all medical activities in our outreach clinic,”
MSF has hitherto been operating a primary healthcare centre in Pibor town, Jonglei State, including two smaller outreach clinics in more remote areas of Lekwongole and Gumuruk; both of which are only accessible by plane or boat during rainy seasons.
According to MSF, Gumuruk outreach clinic renders basic medical care services to a population of more than 30,000 people. These services include general consultations, treatment for malnutrition, ante-natal care and vaccinations.
Gbane Mahama, MSF’s medical coordinator for Southern Sudan, said that apart from the cases of more than 160 malnourished children receiving treatment at Gumuruk clinic, the unit receives at least 20 new child-related cases weekly.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35820

When NGO pull out... This is never a good sign

[M-A Lagrange]

VP Taha says South Sudan independence will cause conflicts, disintegration
"All the experiences of secession in the African continent was doomed to fail; in Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Congo" Taha told a youth gathering for the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in the Sudanese capital.
"All the countries in the continent except two support North-South unity even the major powers hostile to Sudan" he added. "This means that there is no one is working for separation" Taha said describing pro-secession forces as "losers".
"Even if the South separates it is threatened with further split if it witnesses differences" the Sudanese VP added. Sudan’s referendum, a key provision of the 2005 peace deal which ended a devastating 22-year civil war between the north and south, is due next January, allowing southerners to choose independence or remain with a united Sudan.
Taha called for a national dialogue to focus on things that promote unity rather than encourage secession.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35827

Must say that I do have to agree with him somehow. But only on the principle.

NCP-SPLM meet in Cairo to discuss Sudan’s unity and Islamic Sharia’a laws
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35826

Discussing the implementation of sharia Law in South does not really participates to make Unity attractive…

[M-A Lagrange]

SPLM and NCP have agreed to conduct referendum without defining borders... Why not. This could mean that SPLM is secretly hoping referendum will go for unity... :rolleyes

While SPLM is sleeping, North is preparing separation:

Nomads Accused of Settling in Contested Region
The chief administrator of the region, Deng Arop Kuol, told reporters in Khartoum that Misseriya nomads have been moving into 20 locations in northern Abyei.
"We are getting information that they intend to settle 25,000 families in those areas and the number of people will go up to 75,000 in those areas. We believe it is something organised," Kuol said.
"The Misseriya are in no way meant to vote in the Abyei referendum, because they are not residents. They are meant to be nomads."
Meanwhile Manyiel told RFI the Misseriya had begun building houses and infrastructure, and that the neighbouring state of Southern Kordofan was also behind the settlement drive, working with Khartoum.
"The governor of Southern Kordofan, I am accusing him. He knows what is going on. He should stop these people from coming and settling," Manyiel said.
"He has a secret agreement with them to come and settle in the area."
"They are for war, they are not for peace. This area should by administered by Abyei, and the residents should be those from Abyei."

http://allafrica.com/stories/201008031106.html

Personnaly, I am not convicend by the idea that you can have a separation and creation of a new country without setting borders first. Seems like a recipy for desaster to me in close, medium or long range timeline...
Well, time will tell.

[JMA]

Personnaly, I am not convicend by the idea that you can have a separation and creation of a new country without setting borders first. Seems like a recipy for desaster to me in close, medium or long range timeline...
Well, time will tell.

You are so very correct. The problem is to reach agreement on the line of the border especially where it runs through oil fields. No matter what the demarcation is there will be one side aggrieved to the extent it will be prepared to go to war to have their way. Being in China's area of influence I watch their actions with interest.

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan signs oil exploration deal for new Block E
August 6, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Sudan’s oil ministry signed Friday a new deal with a small oil and gas exploration firm based in Luxembourg to explore a new block called E which runs through five states in southern Sudan and Darfur.
The long slim Block covers an area of approximately 50,000 km2, and has a potential estimated in 2 Billion Barrels of oil. It is located over the south margin of the Muglad basin where more than 10 billion barrels of oil have been discovered.
Block E traverses four southern states — Northern Bahr el-Ghazal, Western Bahr el-Ghazal, Lakes, Warrap — and South Darfur in north Sudan.
The contract was signed by the Sudanese oil minister Lual Deng and Farshad Zandi of Star Petroleum company which takes a 75 percent share of the block. Also were present at the signing ceremony Southern Sudan oil minister and the governors of the concerned states.
The Star company was candidate to join Total in Block B earlier this year to take the share of the American Marathon Inc after the withdrawal of the Emirate Mubadala, but the French operator was reluctant to work with this new partner.

http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35879

Sudan’s oil giant set to meet Ethiopia’s annual fuel demand
However, Earlier this year, a new benzene supplying agreement was signed between governments of Ethiopia and Sudan, extending their cooperation for another year.
The Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise has planned to import 2,176,188 tonnes of fuel including benzene with projected budget of 1.42 billion USD for the current fiscal year. The volume of the fuel projected to be imported this year exceeds that of last year by 500,000 tonnes.
In the past five years, benzene supplies from Sudan had accounted lessthan 10% of Ethiopia’s annual consumption. Currently, Sudan supplys 82 percent of Ethiopia’s annual benzene consumption
The Horn of Africa country had been spending massive costs for inspection and vessel prices to import Fuel all the way from the Middle East. This makes the benzene that comes from Sudan significantly cheaper.

http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35890

Interesting development of the Sudanese oil business.
While Sudan remains on the terrorist list of USA, it also strangely participates to the international effort to reduce Middle East oil market supremacy. Knowing Chinese dependency over Sudanese oil, I doubt all this was done without their agreement.
I also wonder how Uganda will react. In fact, a secession of South without clear borders defined and an increase of North Sudan oil production capacity might serve Museveni rather than the contrary.

[M-A Lagrange]

US special envoy to Sudan may soon depart: report

On Friday, the U.S. magazine Foreign Policy quoted multiple sources as saying that Gration “is considering taking the job of U.S. Ambassador in Nairobi.”
However, the sources said that Gration is lobbying to keep his Sudan portfolio even as ambassador to Kenya which the magazine said will likely become an uphill battle doomed to fail.
One administration source said that the plan had been to nominate Gration during the congressional recess, as to avoid a lengthy confirmation debate, but that plan was no longer operative and Gration would be nominated and confirmed through the usual process. Gration’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
John Prendergast, who leads the Enough Project, was quoted by Foreign Policy as saying, "During the last year and a half, we’ve seen increased violence in Darfur and the deadliest months in five years, we saw an election that was completely compromised without any resulting sanctions, we’ve seen a deepening of the rifts that could cause a resumption of war between the north and the south. None of these have elicited from the Obama administration anything more than an occasional statement. This has given a clear green light to the regime in Khartoum to pursue its warmongering as usual. Gration has overseen this policy.”

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35949

Well, his successor, if anyone is nominated, will have not get an easy task. After being criticised inside US and Sudan, the special representant will have a referendum to save.

Sudan’s referendum body chief threatens to resign

The secretary-general controls the funds and budget of the commission and south Sudan’s ruling party has warned the deadlock could derail the vote.
"If things continue like this I will just excuse myself that’s all," Khalil added.
"This [commission] can only work if we can get people to be cooperative, to have mutual trust ... and to approach things objectively from a national point, not from the point of view of north and south," Khalil said.
"With things as they are, all resolutions would be a foregone conclusion," he said. "The five [southern] members are determined to vote as a block — to me this is just not acceptable, it makes a nonsense of the whole process."
Khalil said of the 63 positions outlined in the Referendum Law, 59 had already been filled by southerners. He said he had left the problem for the presidency to decide.
"I am not prepared to head a commission that works this way. With things are they are, all resolutions would be a foregone conclusion," he said.
But SPLM official Pagan Amum said Khalil showed "tendencies of dictatorship" for ignoring the majority opinion in the body.
"If these problems are not resolved quickly the referendum commission will definitely fail to deliver on organising the referendum," he added.
On Friday, the commission chief lashed out at Amum questioning in an interview with the pro-government Al-Rayaam why the SPLM has failed to have the referendum law sooner. Khalil called on the Amum to find out for himself the obstacles facing the commission to resolve them.
This week, Sudanese media reported that the commission submitted a request to the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) demanding a postponement to the referendum date saying that it would be not be possible to complete all the deliverables by the due date which includes registering the voters.
The SPLM has rejected any delay to the referendum suggesting that it will take other measures if that occurs and some observers believe that would include a unilateral; declaration of independence by South Sudan legislative assembly. But the Northern ruling party said this would amount to an act of war.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35970


JEM denies reports of deal to setup military base in Uganda

On Saturday, Sudan Media Center (SMC), which is closely linked to the country’s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), carried a report alleging that a delegation of JEM comprising Ahmad Adam Bakhit, Mansur Arbab and Ahmad Nuqua Lisan had “secretly visited Kampala last week" and met with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni "in the presence of an SPLM’s representative".
According to SMC’s "reliable" sources, Museveni had pledged to setup a military base for JEM in Uganda and supply Darfur rebels with arms. SMC’s sources further elaborated that Museveni had agreed to assist JEM and provide it with all necessary support including “delivery of weapons, issuance of travelling documents and passports to facilitate easier moves for JEM members into other countries.”
Also, SMC sources reported that Museveni had proposed Salva Kiir in his capacity as Sudan’s first vice-president and president of south Sudan to restore JEM’s relations with the countries in the region, in reference to Chad which recently severed its longstanding ties with JEM after normalizing its relations with Khartoum. SMC sources suggested a link between JEM delegations’s alleged meeting with Ugandan president and the two-day visit of Slava Kiir to Kampala last week.
"JEM categorically denies the reports appearing in local press in Khartoum on Sunday 15 August, which says that a delegation of JEM met with the Ugandan president Museveni," declared a press release on JEM’s website.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35968
There is no smoke without fire... Well let see. What is interresting is that Khartoum is pointing Kampala as the one instigating "war" in Sudan now.

[M-A Lagrange]

First SPLM decided to play it harsh:

SPLM to boycott referendum meeting with Sudanese president
The Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) deputy secretary general Yasir Arman said in a statement today that the political bureau of the movement decided to skip the meeting with Bashir.
"This [meeting] appears more of an NCP leadership meeting than a joint meeting of political powers that allows everyone to reach a consensus and come with a joint vision" Arman said in the statement.
"Therefore the SPLM regrets that it will not be part of Thursday’s meetings and we hope to participate in an upcoming meeting that would have better preparation and agreement among its participants,".
It is not clear whether other parties will share the same position by the SPLM. Previously the Umma Party headed by Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi rejected Bashir’s invitation saying it was addressed to its leader and not to the party.
In a related issue, the NCP said that an arrangement known as the "four freedoms" cannot be put in place between the North and South in the event of secession.
The "four freedoms" is an accord signed between Sudan and Egypt that allows citizens from both countries to have the right to work, reside, own and move freely between the two countries. It has yet to be fully implemented between the countries due to objections from the Egyptian parliament.
A meeting hosted by Cairo last month between the NCP and the SPLM suggested a similar accord between the North and South for a post-separation state.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35995

Just to be able to make their point:

SPLM’s politburo rejects referendum delay
The final communiqué of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement’s (SPLM) politburo meeting in Juba, August 13 - 16, declared that, “there shall be no retreat from holding the referendum as scheduled on January 9, 2011.”
The South Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC), which is tasked with organizing the exercise, has been deadlocked over the appointment of a secretary-general.
On March 15, the SSRC’s chairman, Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil, threatened to resign, saying that the southern members of the commission were voting as a block to prevent any northerner from taking the disputed post.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36003
With a little US push:
U.S. special envoy hold talks with Sudanese officials
The U.S. State department spokesperson Philip J. Crowley told reporters today that Gration is seeking to push the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) to live up to all of the criteria under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and continue to move forward in preparation for the referendum next January".
Currently the referendum preparation process is lagging well behind the timeline stipulated by the CPA primarily because of the delay in adopting the referendum law and the formation of the commission primarily because of disagreements between the NCP and the SPLM.
The referendum panel has yet to pick its secretary general because of SPLM objections over whether it should be a figure from the North or the South. Furthermore, the commission does not have headquarters or regulations in place to begin functioning leading its chief Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil to suggest that the January 9, 2011 date for the key vote would not be attainable.
According to the government sponsored Sudanese Media Centre (SMC) Khalil briefed Gration today on the time constraints facing the commission to discharge its mandate. He told SMC that the U.S. special envoy was "understanding" to the need to push both sides to agree on a secretary general.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36005

But the real disagreement between North ans South lay most certainly there:

Sudan says committed to transparency in oil revenues
Under the 2005 peace accord between North and South Sudan, both sides agreed to share the country’s oil wealth, with the south receiving half the state revenues from the oil drilled from its territory.
"We hope to comfort all the Sudanese people that there will be transparency even if there was none in the past," said Deng, who is from the former southern rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) according to Reuters.
"The audit is basically to look at the production since 2005 — it will be done by an independent firm," Deng said. "Our preference is to accelerate the process so that the results are made available before the referendum," he added.
"It is the lack of transparency, or the perceived lack of transparency, that has fuelled mistrust between partners," Agence France-Presse (AFP) quoted him as saying. "We want to enhance trust between the north and south."
The state minister for oil Ali Ahmed Osman stressed the importance of providing facts on the Global Witness report through cooperation and coordination between the Government of National Unity (GoNU) and the Government of the South Sudan (GoSS) to inform the public on the correctness of the wealth sharing and the commitment of Global Witness to achieve transparency through its handling of the facts without distortion.
Furthermore, Azhari Abdul-Qadir Secretary General of the Ministry of Oil, described the Global Witness report as "false" emphasizing the need for tracking facts on the production and manufacture of oil in Sudan to achieve transparency.
The Sudanese oil minister also revealed that his country is working on boosting output to at least 600,000 bpd next year.
Deng said current average output is now between 450,000 and 470,000 bpd from the two blends — Nile and Dar. That could reach 650,000 bpd on the back of increased production from Block 6 and more efficient oil recovery techniques, he said.
"For next year, all things being equal, we expect between 500,000 and 600,000. We are aiming at 650,000" bpd.
The assertions by Deng contradicts a report released this month by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stating that oil output in Sudan is projected to peak in 2012 and to subsequently decrease gradually.
About 75 per cent of Sudan’s proven reserves of 6.3bn barrels are in the south but the pipeline that carries the oil to export terminals and refineries runs through the north.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36006

Not so much a political dispute in fine. Only 2 too hungry future dictatorial regimes trying to find an agreement on how to feed their clique…
Tom, I am not that optimist for democracy in a separated or even unified Sudan without a leader like Garang.
Let see what the wild Uganda card will do.

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan would face humanitarian crisis after referendum

"We have to be ready, we have to have plans," said Southern Sudan government Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management James Kok Ruea before UN officials and aid groups in a meeting held in Juba today.
"The needs will be enormous, so we will need your support," he added.
[…]
"If the Islamic system in the north (National Congress Party government) decided to interrupt the smooth running of the referendum, then what do you think the situation is going to be?" He asked. "There will be tension and likely it will go back to war," he further added.
"What happens when fighting takes place? People are killed, properties are lost, the most vulnerable group are children, women, and elderly people. There would be massive displacement," he warned.
The U.N. Deputy Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Southern Sudan, Lise Grande, said donors have been very generous with Southern Sudan but said many people in the south still suffer..
Tribal violence in Southern Sudan last year killed some 700 people and displaced over 150,000, the UN reported.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36012

Ok, that minister to keep his job needs a war. But in fact, he is so representative of South Sudan administration. SPLM and SPLA members do not know how to manage peace. If you give a close look at the situation, there is no police dispatch in rural areas, no real administration at county level… Then no real justice, no real understanding of the State and then democratic game by villagers.
The policemen are being kept as bodyguards by administrative staff in State/Province capital as if they were personal armies. They still manage the place as if they were in the bush fighting, securing road trades for personnal enrichment…
Even if South Sudan does not go at war with North, they will try to keep this place is state of emergency to have external powers to run it and flowed them with relief aid. What they do not get is that every body is tired of this, starting by the donors.
Still a long road to go for the people of South Sudan.