South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

Many tings have occurred in the past days in South Sudan. So 2 post in once cause otherwise I'll get crazy editing the stuff.

First of all, SPLM stepped back from its positions concerning the referendum commission.
In fact, some are saying that external players as Mr Gration are not for nothing in that...

SPLM concedes position of the referendum body SG
The veteran lawyer Omer Al-Sheik, who worked in the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), is expected to be tapped as the commission’s secretary general.
The SPLM launched a fierce media campaign against Al-Sheik, accusing him of "incompetence" and "failure" during his tenure in MINURSO and as such he is not fit to hold the SG position.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36046

US envoy Gration brokered breakthrough in referendum body deadlock

A source privy to the situation told Sudan Tribune yesterday on condition of anonymity that it was the US special envoy, Scott Gration who persuaded the SPLM’s leadership to concede the position. In return, the source says, Gration had promised the SPLM that the referendum would be held as scheduled and that it would get the position of the commission’s deputy secretary-general which will be based in the south.
Furthermore, the source revealed that officials of the UN and the International Foundation for Elections System (IFES), a body providing technical assistance to the referendum process, told Gration in a meeting on Friday, August 20, at a donor office in Juba that his estimates of holding the referendum on time were “legally impossible.”, in reference to the timing constraints stipulated in the referendum act.
But Yasir Arman said that the SPLM had also decided to alter the scheduling of some of the process’s phases.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36052

Now let’s go for the creeping part of the story:

SPLM Mobilizes Arms, Welcomes New Allies
Learnt sources said, according Sudan Media Center (SMC) delivery of the all aircrafts will be finalized late this August, after pilots and engineers have been trained in Uganda and the USA, who were trained to operate the aircrafts in advanced manner. The aircrafts are expected to be in operation before end of this; however SPLM's Atem Garang denied the deal, describing the reports as cheap propaganda. He affirmed that the movement was not in need of sweeping of said deal under the rug.
In its issue dated Aug. 23, Al-Ahdath Arabic daily reported that the ruling National Congress Party NCP wants SPLM to be at "the mercy and hegemony of the north".

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=60142

South is definitively on the path of war… Yes this comes from SUNA but the official discourses from South Sudan officials is clear: we will be independent, and North will do as we say. Otherwise we will have war. And if we do not get war, we willfind a reason to get a war.
South Sudan is actually topping up to come to the level of Kartoum which announced several weeks ago the construction of the first “African” jet fighter. (Knowing that Egypt did the same several decades ago and South Africa also…)
After tanks, SPLA is getting planes. Next step? A navy?

But the real creepy news comes from Khartoum:

Sudan Prepares to Instal First Nuclear Rector for Research Purpose SUNA
Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency, scientists of the Sudanese Authority for Atomic Energy Agency and representatives of the Ministry of Electricity and Dams, NSIS,
Civil Defense got engaged in intensive meetings at the Civil Defense Head Quarters in Khartoum yesterday to discuss the feasibility study of importing the first nuclear reactor in Sudan for the purposes of scientific research.
The feasibility study has started earlier this year, after the approval by the International Atomic Energy Agency on the possibility of Sudan to acquire two nuclear reactors for electricity generation and scientific research purposes.
Addressing the inaugural session, Director-General of the Sudan Atomic Energy Agency, Prof. Mohamed Ahmed Hassan Tayeb stressed the importance of having the technologies of peaceful uses of atomic energy as well as the instrumentality of the research reactor and its contribution to the national infrastructures.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=60124

North Sudan is willing to get the second nuclear reactor of African continent! Yes, the second one, because the first one is in… DRC! Chilling isn’t?

Well, I know a guy in Iran who just said the same. But launching air strikes from Juba or Uganda will be easier than from Tel Aviv…But may be not. Some lessons from 2006 Lebanon war still have not been learned may be.
Anyways, it's China who will be happy. Now they can openly do nuclear business. No need to sneek in nuclear material for Iran anymore, it's civilian Sudan nuclear plan business...

[M-A Lagrange]

And finally, I believe the GoSS does read our posts in SWJ or at least the same books:

The Chinese government is keen on investing in the oil and agricultural sectors in South Sudan.
Speaking upon her arrival from China where she attended the China African Agricultural Forum, the newly-appointed Government of Southern Sudan’s Minister for Agriculture and Forestry Dr Anne Itto told the press that China has expressed her interest in developing South Sudan.
“From the discussions we had with the Chinese government, it is interested in having more oil blocks. It also wants to invest in minerals. It also expressed real interest to further develop their relationships with the ruling party, the SPLM”, Dr Itto said.
She added that China’s primary interest is not political but a partnership that would allow them to invest for the benefit of South Sudanese.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...1/Default.aspx

GoSS Seeks to Promote Private Sector
“It is our collective responsibility, be it the government, private sector and individuals to ensure that business skills which have been paralysed by the 20 – year civil war is revived for the prosperity of this nation”, said Pan.
The Director General explained that South Sudan’s market is a free market economy hence the government cannot impose laws restricting prices.
“Unless people begin producing local commodities to impact prices on the market, the people will continue buying at the current prices”, he cautioned.
“It would be upon us to utilise the fertile lands for agriculture since the government would never settle all our needs. The role of the government is to provide security and create a conducive atmosphere for its citizens to explore their talents for survival”, he said.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...3/Default.aspx

Welcome to the ultra liberal popular republic of South Sudan!
We will see if it either generates some taxes incomes or just sunk the common people in a poverty hole. Economist should remember that before regulating or deregulating the market, you actually need a market. That means a minimum solvability among the population. And relief aid just does not provide that. I know, there are cash for aid programs were you distribute cash straight to the people so they suddenly become solvable. Which is not a so much great idea as when you earn money for nothing, then you wonder why you do not always get your check for free…
But if there is a market booming in South, it’s the one of beer! After 20 years of war for the right to drink, South Sudan beer market is over booming. May be we should assess the effect on the security sector…

SABMiller Doubles Output of S.Sudan Brewery
SABMiller said on Friday it would double output at its brewing operations in southern Sudan by the end of the year, a sign of the economic boom taking root in the former war zone.
The decision to lift capacity to 350,000 hectolitres from 180,000 when the Juba-based brewery opened in May 2009 also suggests confidence in the stability of the south, which is likely to vote for independence in a January referendum.
"Many people questioned our logic in building not only the first brewery that southern Sudan had seen for 50 years but also the first manufacturing facility in Juba," said Ian Alsworth-Elvey, managing director of Southern Sudan Beverages Ltd (SSBL).
"However, the business has had a very warm welcome to the country and our beer, soft drinks and water brands have found real traction with consumers," he said.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...9/Default.aspx

And finally, to come back to our main subject: how to destabilize a future neighboring country, Khartoum is practicing agressive economic warfare:

South Sudan bank running out of foreign currency
The finance minister for the semi-autonomous region of Southern Sudan said on Monday that the government there is running short in foreign currency because of Khartoum remitting the South’s share of oil revenue in local currency.
David Deng Athorbei, the regional minister of finance and economic planning, who made the revelation said the move by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) was deliberate.
“This is a clear and complete violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. It is one of the most serious violations of the CPA because it has dire consequences,” said Athorbei.
Under the 2005 landmark peace deal between the north and the south, the Government of Southern Sudan’s 50% share of revenues generated from oil within its territory should be paid in hard currency into accounts managed by the Bank of Southern Sudan.
Athorbei noted that this was not the first time the central bank had changed payments for the oil exported from foreign currencies to Sudanese pounds.
“The changing of the hard currencies especially dollars has political motivations and was intentionally coined to suppress [the] economy of south Sudan. This is not the first time it is happening. They have done a lot in the past but [… ] not to this extent”, said the minister.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36049

That’s all folks.

[M-A Lagrange]

Russia warns from new Somalia in South Sudan

"We as an international community and countries that are permanent Security Council members do not want a new Somalia in South Sudan"

http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36079

Mr Margelov made this comment after a meeting in Cairo with the Arab League. He resumed very clearly what South Sudan is facing and would face after the referendum.
But SPLM is trying to make it attractive, does it please you or not:

China must recognize referendum result to retain oil assets

The only way for China to retain its millions-worth of oil assets in Sudan is to cultivate a “strong” relationship with the semi-autonomous region of south Sudan and recognize the outcome of a referendum due in January 2011 on the region’s possible independence, says south Sudan official.
Anne Itto, south Sudan’s minister of agriculture, told reporters yesterday in the region’s capital Juba upon returning from China that the Chinese government fears that its assets in Sudan’s oil would be “a waster” if the south opts for secession.
“A lot of wild rumors have been getting to them, that if the south separates, there will be insecurity, and if there is insecurity, their assets worth billions of dollars in the form of pipelines and so on will have been a waste,” she said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36022

I wonder how much China is confident in SPLM to be capable to secure its investments in South. And I am not that sure that threatening them with USA in mind is the solution. Cause, like it or not, China will deal with who is in power.
Some were already saying that Darfur was a "cold war" between China and USA. Well, are the US really ready to extend it to South Sudan. The potential of doing more harm than good is extremely high and dam real.
It would be somehow sad that the new US strategy in the sub region can be resume to creating another Great Lakes war.

[M-A Lagrange]

First of all, some Kenyans are a little upset with Bashir visit. (Some Gration hand behind this already?)

Kenya’s PM party distances itself from Bashir’s visit as more details emerge on trip

“We would like to point out to Kenyans and the international community that this was indeed a very unfortunate visit that could put into question the commitment of the government to implement the Constitution of the second republic in letter and spirit,” Nyong told a news conference on Saturday according to Capital FM website.
SOUTH SUDAN ANGRY AT KENYA
"Our president was all set to travel to Nairobi for the ceremony and had even sent his advance team, only to be called by President Bashir on Thursday afternoon informing him that he would be in Nairobi. Mr Kiir had no choice but to cancel his trip because protocol does not allow them to travel out of the country at the same time,” said the head of the Southern Sudan referendum campaign, John Andruga Duku.

http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36107

Just this resumes so well the atmosphere in Sudan. And Kenya does have a lot to loose with getting angry with South Sudan. Many of the infrastructure companies working actually in South are Kenyan (well Uganda must be happy.)
But Kenya is trying very hard to push China to fund the new Lamu port (which includes an international airport and a pipeline to Sudan oil plants). So inviting Bashir over Kiir does make sense in fact. Especially as China is officially supporting the Khartoum road to referendum. I do believe that China does make huge efforts to seduce Juba but up to now, US and UK bounds remain the most important.
Once again, we have here in fact a diplomatic war between Uganda and Kenya (with US and China behind) on who will get the oil cake market. The one who’s got the most to loose anyways is Kenya as they do not have oil, unlike Uganda. But Kenya does have “secured” boundaries with South Sudan. Last year events in Nadapal have clearly shown who the boss in town. And it’s not South Sudan who still depends on Kenya for its heavy military equipments imports.

South Sudan refutes claims that oil revenues have been paid in hard currency
The central banks governor has also refuted the south’s claims that they are running out of foreign currency. According to Hassan the Bank of Southern Sudan (BoSS) has reserves of up to US$726 million, twice the amount he says that the Central Bank possesses.
Elijah Malok Aleng, deputy governor of the Central Bank of Sudan and a governor of BoSS denied this. After a briefing with south Sudan’s president on Friday, he told South Sudan TV (SSTV) that south Sudan’s reserves were less than half what the central bank claimed.
“We only have a reserve of about US$300 million”, he said.
On Monday 23 August, Athorbe the southern finance minister told a press conference that the central bank’s action was starving the economy of southern Sudan of the hard currency it desperately needs to operate.
“The foreign exchange needed by the business community to pay for imports and to meet their foreign currency obligations and commitments cannot be provided. Investor confidence in southern Sudan is eroded as we cannot meet their foreign exchange requirements. The public is unable to send money to their families abroad for school fees or any other purpose’’, Athorbei said.

http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36100

So if you were wondering what economical warfare impact does have, well here is a full open air demonstration.
Not that people could afford school fees in the first place but the impact in mainly on external investors and GoSS capacities.
In juba, you can pay in Sudanese Pounds but everyone will take (and prefer) dollars. The rate last month was 2.6 SP for 1US$ while on Uganda boarder, it was 2.75 or 2.8 for 1US$. Convert that in millions… Let say $426 millions. In Sudan Pounds at Juba rate (which was at the same level than Khartoum, 2.6), it makes SP 1107 million. Now go and convert it on regional market at 2.75 rate, it makes $402 million. Immediate loss: $24 millions. Ok, that was for 2 month only. So lets replicate it for 1 year, it makes a $144 million loss. On a South Sudan budget of 1.3 to 1.5 billion/year… That does make a difference. And we are talking on the fact that 50% (approximately) of the oil revenues are paid in hard currency. So in fact it’s a loss of $144 million on $750 millions, nearly 20% of expected revenues.
On a Khartoum point of view, this is all benefits: GoSS is either buying fewer weapons or building less infrastructures. In the end it affects South Sudan stability anyways.

Cause don't forget, South is not secure yet:
Lakes state cattle keepers tell government to protect them or give them back their guns
http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36099

[M-A Lagrange]

First of all the ICG report on the North South border.
As usual, thrilling...
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/region...th-border.aspx

And now the ugly trues: Bashir and Washington do cooperate, especially the CIA.
Shh, it's a secret.

Sudan’s spy agency acknowledges cooperation with CIA

The NISS and other Sudanese officials have long acknowledged relations with the CIA which started since the September 11 attacks in the United States or even before that. The former NISS chief Salah Gosh was ferried by the CIA to Washington in 2005 in a private plane for talks prompting fierce criticisms by Sudan advocacy groups.
U.S. media reports have revealed joint CIA-NISS work in the Horn of Africa and Iraq raising eyebrows even within the Islamist backed government.
In 2007 Gosh in an apparent bid to silence hard-line Islamist voices within the regime said that the cooperation with the CIA prevented a destructive backlash by the US against Sudan in the wake of the World Trade Centre attack in New York by Al-Qaeda.
The U.S. has defended its work with the NISS saying that it has not prevented it from being the most outspoken critic of human right violations in Sudan.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36165

[M-A Lagrange]

Is dam frustrating… Cause you see how everyone is making sure that things will not run smoothly.

Official: Southern Sudan Could Unilaterally Secede
"We have reached a point of no return," John Duku, Southern Sudan¹s former chief diplomat to East Africa, told CNN. "The independence of South Sudan cannot be stopped by anybody now."

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...6/Default.aspx

Funny how announcing something on CNN can be taken as an official declaration.

Some may have wonder why I have taken time to include elements on agriculture and Nile River in those posts on South Sudan.
Remember, I posted few times ago that GoSS has chosen the line of POP CENTRIC COIN.
In the past month, GoSS has been dealing with several insurgencies and used the non kinetic strategy of containment of insurgent groups. To finally decide them will crush them. And finally not doing it because it has probably too many internal politic implications. So back to POP CENTRIC COIN and to the development phase to prepare the independence.
Now that this is done, here comes the problematic of sustaining government apparatus. SPLM has a hand on all the key administrations and is the only credible party here in South Sudan. So now, to be comforted in their legitimate role of ruling the land, they have to deliver services and create economical wealth.
And that’s were the Nile River and agriculture problematic comes in.

South Sudan Plans 11 Hydroelectric Plants
"We have located more than 10 potential sites for hydro power, most are along the Nile and its tributaries," Liabwel said. "Developing this power is essential to build up industry ... for irrigation, agriculture."

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...1/Default.aspx

Will se what Egypt and North Sudan will say on this. But that is already one casus belli.

But now, let’s have a look on North and Egypt. Well agriculture there also is seen as an alternative.

Egypt to Grow 1m Feddans of Major Crops in Al Gezira Scheme
For his part, the advisor to the Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Dr. Saad Nassar, said the Sudan should have priority with respect to any external Egyptian investments in the agricultural sector. "This is particularly true when we know that there are adequate guarantees for the success of such projects, such as services, electric power, trained labor and a capable banking and legal system," Dr. Nassar added.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=60509

And here we have another potential casus belli.
Like South, Khartoum is trying to cope with the oil revenues decrease that will follow the separation. And if that does not work, well the temptation to enflame the border demarcation issue on oil field will come more and more attractive.

And finally this report that I cannot remember if I already did or not mentioned.
http://www.gurtong.net/LinkClick.asp...Q%3d&tabid=124

Even if insurgents are contained, well stable and secure environment is not yet granted.

[M-A Lagrange]

Some are talking about the idea of an island some of the idea of a war… All this in the name of peace:

Presidential adviser says Sudanese must prepare for war when the south secedes
A senior Sudanese official today called on the country’s youth and students to prepare for war to defend the country against challenges facing the nation if the southern Sudan secedes, the pro-government Akhir Lahza newspaper reported on Thursday.
Also last weekend, the Sudanese information minister Kamal Obeid warned that Southerners living in the North will immediately lose citizenship rights if the South votes for independence.
"They will not enjoy citizenship rights, jobs or benefits, they will not be allowed to buy or sell in Khartoum market and they will not treated in hospitals," Obeid said in statements carried by public radio.
"We will not even give them a needle in the hospital," he added.

http://www.tchadenligne.com/article-...-58064443.html

Sudanese president pledges to protect southerners living in the north
Al-Bashir remarks brush aside threats by his information minister Kamal Obeid who threatened to expel southerners saying they will not enjoy citizenship rights, jobs and they would not be treated in hospitals.
It comes also two days after comments by his first deputy and head of southern Sudan government Salva Kiir Mayardrit declaring his support for separation. He also criticized his northern partners for not making unity attractive.
Kiir slammed remarks made by Obeid, He also expressed concern that southern Sudanese in the north need to be protected and repatriated back to Southern Sudan. "They are saying that nobody will buy the houses of southerners in the north," he said
Addressing a youth forum on Sunday in Khartoum, Bashir affirmed his direct responsibility for the protection of southerners in the north. He emphasized that any citizen from southern Sudan or his property or his rights will not be affected whatever the outcome of the referendum.
"Their security is a government priority and direct responsibility that we bear entirely," he added.
Last Friday Salva Kiir accused the North of "cheating" the South in the sharing of oil revenues during the interim period, explaining that it has been giving only 26% of oil revenues and not 50% as provided for in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
Bashir said southern Sudan ruling party, which is cosignatory of the 2005 peace agreement, breached the CPA because of its calls for separation putting aside making unity attractive.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36479

SPLM slams calls for war by NCP official
Tension is building between north and south Sudan ahead of a referendum vote in which the latter is supposed to vote on whether to remain united with the north or secede to form an independent state.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36474

Nafie Refutes SPLM Allegation on Southern Citizenship in the North
He added, "We will preserve their rights in the north till adapting their situations."
He challenged the SPLM over its capability to preserve northerners' rights in the south.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=61220

War talks or talks on war are getting more and more loud those days in Sudan (north and South). The truth is that no one is actually trusting anyone.
Southerners are not even trusting South Sudanese living in North or South Sudanese living in neiboring countries.
The US did make an effort to determine the future border between North and South… To bad Khartoum did not agree. (May be neither did China?).

NCP Rejects US Proposal on Abyei Referendum
"We would expect that the parties should come to the meeting prepared to reach an agreement on Abyei," U.S. State Department spokesperson Phillip J. Crowley told reporters.
"We are very conscious of the fact that we have just about 100 days remaining (before the referendum), and Abyei is one of the central issues that has to be resolved before we can hope for a successful referendum early in 2011," he said.
The U.S. top diplomat urged Khartoum "to come to Addis Ababa on Sunday prepared to negotiate and to make sure that the negotiating team will have specific authority to reach agreement on Abyei," Crowley said.
The Obama administration’s special envoy for Sudan, Scott Gration, and Ambassador Princeton Lyman, a veteran U.S. diplomat recently drafted to help mediate the talks, will also participate in the Addis Ababa discussions, Crowley said.
A proposal put forward by the U.S. suggests that only Dinka Ngok will vote in the referendum as only those who resided continuously over the last year will be eligible to register. Furthermore, the oil produced in the region will be shared between the two sides.
The initiative also states that the Abyei referendum commission should be established no later than October 4th.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=61234

Basically, for the moment, the US proposition to have only the Dinka voting and not the Messiriyya is being rejected. Which is not that much surprising as the Messiriyya are basically supporting North while Dinka supports South. And if Messiriyya vote their is a chance that the oil fields remain in the hands of Khartoum...

All this is done naturally in the name of peace and people interrest and not in the name of the oil…
What ever the result of this referendum is, we will face chaos.

[M-A Lagrange]

U.S. special envoy meets Dinka and Misseriya delegations in Ethiopia
The U.S. sponsored talks appeared to have ran into major difficulties particularly on the issue of whether the Arab Misseriya tribe members should be allowed to take part in the referendum.
The NCP wants to ensure that the cattle-herding Misseriya tribe will have the right to vote in the referendum. The SPLM however, says that according to the 2008 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) which redefined the Abyei borders, the Misseriya have no right to vote in areas assigned to the Dinka Ngok by the tribunal.
Sudan official news agency (SUNA) quoted informed sources as saying that the Dinka Ngok and the SPLM rejected a U.S. proposal stating that the Misseriya are to be given a portion of the oil produced in Abyei and be allowed to use pastures south of the January 1 1956 borders, in the event that the South Sudan referendum results in the creation of a new state.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36513

Addis Ababa Meetings to Discuss Parties’ Responses to New US Ideas on Abyei The two native administration delegations have submitted written proposal separately to the mediator, Scott Gration who replied to them with a new vision that combines the two proposed visions. Gration's vision contents focused on the Abyei Protocol and the Hague's Court decision as a reference. The vision affirmed citizenship rights, division of local power and a development program to which the international community would be committed and the appropriation of part of local oil revenue for the development of the region.

The Messyria warned that all solutions for the Abyei issues as well as the forthcoming Abyei referendum may fail unless mutual agreement between the two parties is reached with the exclusion of political agenda. "All Messyria should participate in the referendum and cattle rearing rights should have priority over citizenship rights," they said.

On its part, the Dinka Ngok native administration delegation led by Kual Deng Majok insisted on refusing the participation of nomad Messyria in the referendum. At the same time, they affirmed the possibility of peaceful coexistence between the two tribes under a guarantee that will preserve the right of cattle rearing and movements for Messyria without this affecting borders or the unity or secession option.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=61320

My hamster grazing rights first as would say Wilf. This is a very good exemple of how sometimes it is difficult to understand the “invisible” causes of a conflict. In Abbeyi, in fine, if SPLM and Khartoum are fighting for access to oil and undermine the economical capacity of the other side… On the ground, people remain people and are fighting for their cattle rights!

South Sudan president pardons rebel army officers The President of the semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), General Salva Kiir Mayardit, has issued an Executive Order, pardoning senior army officers who rebelled or fought against the SPLA forces before and after April’s elections.
The President of the semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), General Salva Kiir Mayardit, has issued an Executive Order, pardoning senior army officers who rebelled or fought against the SPLA forces before and after April’s elections.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36507

Peace talks in Jonglei’s Pibor county stall after ambush kills 3 people
“The attack was meant to destroy the peace talk between the government of South Sudan and Yauyau at Kurnyang”, he said.
According to the commissioner, peace talks between the Gen. Yauyau and the Government of Southern Sudan are currently in progress at Kurnyang to “iron out” some burning issues.
"The local authorities in Pibor County (Joglei state) have started peace talks with David Yauyau," said the official spokesperson of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) Major General Kuol Diem Kuol at the time.
However, commisioner-Mazee told radio Jonglei on Tuesday that the latest incident cast doubt on the Pibor peace talks.
"I’m not sure whether Kurnyang will be peaceful for [peace] talks," he said in reference to the venue of negotiation with Yauyau men.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36505

Somehow, I feel like there is a bias in the new war and COIN strategy. 3 month ago, SPLA was saying: we will crush them in pieces. Now they are saying: I pardon you, let’s talk.
I know that Sun Tzu said that the best General is the ne winning without fighting, but he was talking about being deterent, not having peace talks to achive “victory”.
Scaping from confronting the opponent for immediat short term political most probable benefit, especially in a context as Sudan where the insurgency is limited, seems quite hasardious.

[M-A Lagrange]

On the way!! Right close to the wall, but there’re still some chances to make a desperate U turn.

First of all, the discussions between Misseriya and Dinka:

Abyei’s Misseriya slam SPLM position over their voting rights, Ethiopia talks falter
"Any discussion between the two parties does not allow peaceful coexistence as priority because SPLM has never allowed it. SPLM leaders are not interested in any peaceful dialogue. They are always interested in division and demarcation of borders. They are the one who brought this division. They are the one who brought borders which have never been there, said Hassan denying having had borders with Dinka Ngok. We have never had borders with Dinka Ngok. They have never demanded drawing borders. We have never been divided because we have always been one and the same family. It is the SPLM which came with it and it is now the one working against peaceful coexistence between us and the Dinka Ngok. They have not given any chance to initiate dialogue on how to live together as brothers and sisters," Musa said. Musa, (is) a leader from one of the “Awelad umran” branch of the Misseriya tribe said they would not create instability but will use all means to ensure that they are able to vote in the referendum.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36531

New Proposals to Overcome Abyei Disputes
The international mediators presented another two proposals to Abyei negotiating parties
The first proposal stipulates that Abye belongs to the south directly and to give the Messairiyya the right of pasture.

The other proposed dividing Abyei into two areas (one northerner and the second southerner).
Informed sources told (smc) that the NCP party rejected the first proposal, affirming that the negotiations are still continuing to discuss the second proposal.
The parties to the negotiations formed specialized committees to discuss all the issues related to the post referendum issues including Abyei.
Mediators expressed fears on the consequences of the referendum delay due to the SPLM inflexibility.
http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=61410
Speaker: Conformity on Abyei, Demarcation Crucial for Referendum
National Assembly Speaker, Ahmed Ibrahim El-Tahir affirmed that south Sudan referendum scheduled to be conducted on the 9th of next January necessitates conformity between the CPA partners on Abyei and demarcation issues.

He criticized the SPLM trend to limit Abyei referendum voting on Dinka Ngok, considering that as a violation to Abyei Protocol and the PCA ruling.
He added that Abyei is a geographical area and all its inhabitants are eligible for voting according to the Protocol.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=61417
All the trick with a good narrative is to have everybody on the same line, singing the same song. And Khartoum is pretty good at it. Also, in a very smart move, they did wait for SPLM to make the mistake to show its carts and Salvaa Kiir to state that the referendum was only meant to achieve sessession while it is written black on white that both parties will try to make union attractive.
Once again: a good narrative and weak political adversary and you end up in the legal camp of the good guys. Still doesn’t mean you are a good guy, but…

Then the idea of a fair vote and of its importance:

Bashir accuses Sudan’s SPLM of reneging on peace accord, warns of possible conflict
Sudan official news agency (SUNA) quoted Bashir as telling participants at an emergency Arab League summit in Libya that he regrets what he described as "reneging" by the ex-Southern rebel group on the obligation stipulated in the peace accord by declaring that it is working for the separation option.
The Saudi foreign minister Saud Al-Faisal echoed Bashir’s assertions on the importance for having a fair vote in the South.
“Sudan, a member of the Arab League, is facing the threat of division. No Arab League member can justify its neutral stand on the issue. We have to support Sudan to overcome these dangers,” Al-Faisal said.
Prince Saud opposed the division of Sudan, saying it would not serve the interests of any party. “In our opinion neither the interest of Sudan nor those of the rival parties can be achieved by the dangerous move of division,” he pointed out.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36544
Well, If I remember not too badly, the Arab league is far from being the House of Democracy… But still a fair and transparent vote is requested for the others.
Once again, before you go to war, prepare the land by explaining how the adversary is not playing fair. You may gain some hearts and minds but that’s not the point. You make the public opinion, at least yours, forget how much you actually are what you are claiming the adversary is.
And finally you reject all reasonable solutions because the neutral power trying to make you turn away from the path of war is a bad guy who is actually trying to implement the law and not just use legal arguments as a narrative to justify war:

South Sudan President calls for deployment of UN troops at north-south border
"He [Kiir] set out quite a powerful case for why the referendum had to go ahead on time and the fact that he felt [the] referendum would end up [with] a vote for separation," Britain’s UNSC ambassador Mark Lyall Grant was quoted by Reuters, describing what Kiir had told envoys during a meeting in the southern capital Juba on Wednesday.
"He was not going to declare UDI (a unilateral declaration of independence). But if there is a delay, a politically induced delay by the NCP for the referendum, then it might be necessary for the south to hold their own referendum," he added.
Kiir who is also Sudan’s First Vice President of Sudan has in recent days stepped up his rhetoric saying that he will personally choose secession over unity, something the NCP says is a violation of the CPA which calls on both sides to make unity an attractive option.
Senior NCP official Rabie Abdulatti told Reuters Kiir’s words were unacceptable and said Khartoum would not accept the result of an independence vote organised by the south on its own.
"Nobody would recognize it. This is against CPA. Everything about its implementation should be agreed by the two partners."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36526

Khartoum rejects deployment of UN troops on north-south Sudan border
Sudanese officials rejected the deployment of United Nations peacekeepers on the border between the northern and southern Sudan saying such request is unacceptable and contrary to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
On Sunday Ibrahim Ghandoor, the headof political secretary at the ruling National Congress Party echoed Karti’s position saying his party rejects any measure not included in the CPA.
"Sudan is still one country and it is very strange that a part of the state asks for international troops without the consent or agreement of the federal government," he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36550

NCP Criticizes SPLM Call for UN Troops Deployment along North-south Border
NCP Political Secretary, Prof. Ibrahim Ghandour said that the request submitted by Salva Kiir Mayardit is strange and asked how come he calls for international troops while he is part of the government without any agreement with the GoNU.
He added that the UN might not respond to the call pointing out that there are UNMIS troops according to the CPA with limited mandate so the call doesn't coincide with the CPA and moreover Kiir did not consult the GoNU on the issue.
Ghandour considered the SPLM step in transforming 60 thousand SPLA intelligent elements to police forces to protect the referendum process as immature step.
He criticized the separatists’ penetration into the unity support procession in Khartoum considering it as a sabotage attempt which the security authorities dealt with wisely.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=61423
Look how the devil is in the details. First you start with a fact: Sudan is still one country. And then you end up with propaganda: 60 000 policemen are intelligence officers on the ground. To end up with a grave breach: this is sabotage attempt.
Some are dreaming of 60 000 intelligence officer on in the field to monitor a vote. And others of 60 000 saboteurs ready to act in just a clap.

Finally, on the COIN front:

SPLA rebel General Athor welcomes South Sudan president’s amnesty
Speaking to Sudan Tribune on Saturday, Nyuon commended decision of the president and urged the officers to return.
“The decision taken by the president is an excellent [...] wise and unifying decision,” said Nyuon.
The BBC noted that the report coincided with the visit of the United Nations Security Council and that the move could be seen as a way to show visiting diplomats the south’s seriousness to provide security ahead of the January’s referendum on southern independence.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36545
Athor is really good. He basically managed to win is rebellion (and not insurgency as he did not take power nor represented almost anyone) against the elections.
All this in burning the land and showing enough power to be taken as a real threat while SPLA have just been unable to simply fright him. Pure Sun Tzu strategy applied to a Clausewitz end: impose your views to the opponent in being deterent enough to not have to really fight. Is that really the future of war?

[M-A Lagrange]

Cause for peace, everybody agrees: they are not!

UN to beef-up troop presence at "hotspots" on Sudan’s North-South borders
"We will increase our presence but only in some hotspots," UN peacekeeping chief Alain Le Roy told reporters after a UNSC meeting on Sudan.
U.S. ambassador at the Susan Rice said that UNSC members had been "skeptical" that a force along the entire border could be organized.
"Most council members are skeptical, to say the least, of the feasibility of a force that could line the entirety of the border," Rice told reporters. "Troops don’t exist, it couldn’t be constituted quickly enough."
"But there is serious discussion of alternative models that might focus on those areas along the border that are most vulnerable or at high risk of violence, and where civilians may be most at risk," she added.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36600

Yesterday it was an idea, rejected by Khartoum.
UNSC may authorize limited buffer zones on Sudan’s North-South borders
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36589

Today it’s a small scale innactive force spread all over the border in hot spots… I love the concept of hot spots. It does fix your troops and makes sure tat if something happens you are just were you are not needed!
The idea of PMC is such case may look attractive but who to contract?
First you have to have an agreement of the host nation (Not that easy).
Then an agreement of the security council (even less easy)
And finally you have to recruite 2 or 3 full batallion... At private enerprise cost. Just not fundable.
And even if you manage to get all this: the rules of engagement and recruitement will be so complexe and stupid that you will end up with a force which would be even less effective than the UN. (And the UN force will be completely ineffective in terms of combat capacity, everybody knows it).

But the best is to come:

South Sudan will have its own army even if Sudan remains united – SPLM official
In an interview with the SPLA head of communications, Brig. Gen. Malaak Ayuen Ajok, on South Sudan TV minister Nyaba commended the CPA, which he said was different from previous peace agreements signed between north and south in the past because it retained the SPLA as a separate army.
“We would have our own army, our foreign minister, which is now the regional cooperation […] even in unity,”

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36593

One country, 2 populace and 2 armies… A new vision of the CvC trinity? Certainly not!
South is so eager to be independent that they just forget some small details like: finalising the border with North…

Sudan NCP calls for postponement of Abyei referendum
"It is very obvious that right now it is not possible to hold the referendum in Abyei on January 9. The two parties have agreed on this regard", said Al-Dirdiri Mohamed Ahmed, a senior NCP member who is in charge of Abyei file on Thursday.
US Ambassador to the United Nations told the meeting that the Security Council delegation during its visit to Sudan last week held a meeting with civil society and religious officials. "The mission members had heard more concerns over meeting the tight timetable for the referendum, especially as regarded arrangements in the contended Abyei area, and more concerns that the north was "beating the drums of war", Ms. Rice said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36599

Why only North? South is doing exactly the same!

But my favorit is that one:

Gen. Tanginye becomes latest southern figure to defect to SPLM

A senior army general previously incorporated into the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), has arrived in Juba for the first time since 2006 to announce that he is joining the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which controls the South of the country.
Gabriel Tangginya who has been accused of inciting violence against the semi-autonomous Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), announced his defection to the ex-Southern rebel group on Thursday after meetings with GoSS President Salva Kiir.
He also commended President Kiir for his declared amnesty to all the armed groups, assuring that all the other senior officers who have remained behind were in the process of reconciling themselves with the southern government.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36591

The guy burned the place at least 2 times since 2006 and now is coming back because of the amnesty…
Can this really work?
Amnesty laws usually come after the peace has been achieve and the conflict ended, not defore the pick of the legal confrontation that may lead to war.
Yes peace is often made of bites and piece… But up to which point? Actually the question is not just rethorical. Once you have bought the peace spoiler what stopes them to do it again and again?
That’s why normally you pass amnesty laws after the resolution of a conflict, once you have reach the final political end. NOT to reach that end!

[M-A Lagrange]

SPLA describes Joint Defense Board as unreasonable
The Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army (SPLA) – south Sudan’s army - has described the Joint Defense Board (JDB) as a useless body, accusing Sudan Armed Forces of not following directives of the board made up of the 2005 peace partners

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36625

Ok, now the South is on the same line than North: no buffer zone, no controle, we want to be abble to go to war when we want!
Nice.

Now, let’s look at the petrol issue. Cause referendum in South Sudan has little to see with peoples’will to be independent and much to see with sizing economical profits.

Also, it has a lot to see with the capacity of the US to size huge petrol ressources of South.
Just to understand the impact of the separation I will first come with the description of it by the North Sudan Minister of Finance:

Sudan’s finance minister paints grim picture of economy after the South separates"We will lose seventy per cent of our share in oil reserves, and fifty per cent of the share in oil revenues. We hope and pray to God that Sudan is not divided, but this is what will happen if [Sudan] breaks up," Abdel-Rasool said in an interview with the London-based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper.
"When Mr. President picked me to be the Minister of Finance, I conducted studies on exports and imports, and found that we import the equivalent of more than $9 billion each year; $1 billion for car [imports], and nearly $2 billion of wheat [imports], $100 million for [cooking] oil, and nearly $100 million for furniture, and the like for fruits, toys, and luxury items," the Sudanese finance minister said.
"In accordance with my new policy, it is imperative that we reduce these amounts through rationalization of import, imposing tariffs and taxes on luxury items. And actually, I issued orders stopping the imports of used cars because, in the long run, it will be a burden on the owners and the Sudanese economy," Abdel-Rasool added.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36634

But if this is a challenge for North, what about China whom import nearly 40% (if not more) of its oil imports from Sudan?

So South is working hard to get China on its side:

SPLM gives assurances on Chinese oil investments in South SudanAnne Itto, south Sudan’s minister of agriculture, and SPLM deputy secretary general told reporters after her return from China last August that the Chinese government fears that its assets in Sudan’s oil would be “a waste” if the south opts for secession.
"A lot of wild rumors have been getting to them, that if the south separates, there will be insecurity, and if there is insecurity, their assets worth billions of dollars in the form of pipelines and so on will have been a waste," she said.
Itto added that she had told Chinese officials that "if they want to protect their assets, the only way is to develop a very strong relationship with the government of Southern Sudan, respect the outcome of the referendum, and then we will be doing business."
Amum said they asked the visiting Chinese delegation to put pressure on the northern Sudan ruling National Congress Party to avoid the return of war after the referendum.
"We discussed with the delegation the role of China to support peace in Sudan, especially to prevail on the NCP not to take the country back to war again," he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36612

For the US, the separation of South means the possibility to actually put a grave econmical attack to China and diminish its power by directly influencing China petrol import capacity.
For South, the problematic is completely contrary. Us companies will not be in position to take over oil production. Which is a good thing for the US as a grand worldwide strategy: as long as South Sudan oil does not fall in anyones hands, it’s still a victory. But what South Sudan Government is looking for (and needs) is an immediat source of revenues.
Difficult to convince a partner that he will win by staying poor… In the end, it's difficult to see how peace would profite to Us if it goes with economical agreement between the new South Sudan government and China. Even for a power as the US, a war seems to be more profitable on the short run, just because it preserves South Sudan oil from being exploited by China.
Crazy isn't it?

[jmm99]

What do you think of this article, Southern Sudan - the Four Theses, just posted on the SWJBlog feed ?

LTC Talley's conclusions:

Conclusion

The purpose of this paper is to address what I felt to be three critical elements missing from current discussions and analysis of the situation in Southern Sudan. To recap, they are:

1. A full appreciation of why the Government of Sudan has no choice but to fight – and, most disturbing, why they assess that they will win.‘

2. A sense that the Southern Sudanese appear to be misreading U.S. commitment for the process as a commitment to their cause.

3. The lack of strategic analysis guiding U.S. involvement; in particular, the lack of any effort to extrapolate the likely outcome of U.S. intervention, to analyze the costs associated with that intervention, and to assess the risks to our national interests.

My sense is that the U.S. has been led down a path leading to armed intervention by a values-based advocacy community whose primary motivation is to ensure the U.S. does something to stop bad things from happening. I am particularly troubled by how easily this advocacy community suggests that U.S. involvement in Southern Sudan can lead to a similar involvement in Darfur. The unspoken premise is that, with just a little effort and commitment from the U.S., everything will work out alright. As I have worked through the likely evolution of the official U.S. policy decision, I have come to the conclusion that this policy is prodding the U.S. into a war it is neither prepared for nor willing to fight.

The greatest danger is not that the U.S. military will lose on the battlefield, but that the U.S. will serve as midwife to a failed state – and, in so doing, cause irreparable harm to our real geo-strategic interests in Africa. I believe the President of the United States has reached a critical decision point. Before he chooses to continue with the current official policy, which I believe to have shown will lead to war and ruin, he should pause and the questions, ―is this really a good idea? and ―are there any other viable options?

As an ancient (very ancient) student in the "Never Again, but ..." School, my vote is negat. I see no reasonable "but" justifying US military intervention.

So, Marc, what are the "other viable options" ?

Regards

Mike

[M-A Lagrange]

I do not seat in AFRICOM so... But i'll try to respond. May be in 2 parts. Need free time and I have few at the momment.

More and more, I perceive the situation as getting out of US hands control.
Why?
- South Sudan is trying hard to attract China,
- South Sudan "needs" a war to finalise its control over the various political/armed groups and armed ethnical groups in its territory,
- US interrests in Khartoum are not that low.

The article mentioned above is extremely interresting and several readings are necessary (at least for me) to get the full picture of what this article advocate for (or to whom it is written for).

I tried to introduce the problematic of the Arab League and Arab/Muslim countries interests in the complex politic of Sudan. (May be not my best contribution) and I believe that it's a point which is too often forgotten. Just as the question of the real commitment of Southern populations to GoSS (a nick name for SPLM).
Players like Egypt and other Middle East Arab countries (or Pakistan in some extend) do have contradictory interests in Sudan. And the idea or myth that North/South war is a slave liberation war from oppressed black African people against Arabs is not just confined to Sudan but goes far beyond its borders. You have to remember that Khartoum and the Nuer were the Egyptian slaves in the far past and Sudan has long been seen as a minor interlocutor by the Arab countries. It is not about Islamic ideology but rather about the creation of a Muslim pole in the 21st century balance of world power. A complex issue as USA do support most of the Arabs and Muslims countries regimes which (like Pakistan) are playing double game with them. Even in Sudan. So the possibility of a war in Sudan has also to be understood in the perspective of Arab countries willingness to diminish their dependency from the US. A sort of USA/Muslim powers "drole de guerre"/cold war. (PS: drole de guerre refers to the war without combat between France+UK and Germany in 1939).

On the other hand, there are important points which would support a US involvement into a North/South war.
First, USA is trying hard to build a pole of US influence in Sub-Saharan East Africa: Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda... to name few. A war in South Sudan would affect directly Uganda and Ethiopia. South Sudan is the weak domino, to refer to a bigman from the 70th. So it seems natural for the US to support South if a war occurs.
Also, as I mentioned in a different threat, there is a "pattern" in the US state building support in Africa, or a "US touch". Uganda and Rwanda are the 2 governance/government models US are trying to advertise for in that part of Africa: strong pseudo democratic regimes based on limited plury political parties and enterely turned to economic development. And South Sudan regime is for now (at least) not different from this. Not supporting GoSS and SPLM if a war happens would affect the image of USA in East Africa among the people but also among the friendly states.

Last but not least, there are inside the US army also a lot of advocates for an unconditional support to SPLA. Some are long watchers and do have arguments based on strategic understanding of Africa. Some are more emotional: I fought a war with SPLA, I cannot let them down now. A little like the weird position of France on Yugoslavia and its unconditional support to Serbs in the early times.

Finally, and that is for me the most important question that I do repeat again and again: what are the benefits of US in a peaceful separation between South and North? US interests are not, far from it, the people; it's the oil! Nothing else. It's also the stability of the sub region (Somalia and Eritrea are not that far away).
Not supporting South in a war would definitively affect USA in achieving their strategic goals.

For all those reasons, I tend to see for the US an obligation to intervene. But LtCol Talley is asking some important questions and putting the finger where it hurts: are the US ready to go for another Asian war/Vietnam like war? (With or without direct troops involvement on the ground.)

Now, I will go to the "other options"... In a next post.

M-A

[M-A Lagrange]

The question is simple but answering to it seems just impossible.
First of all it requires responding to the question: is a peaceful separation between South and North possible?

The answer is yes, naturally. Strong diplomatic pressing on Khartoum could do the trick. But this will not answer the question because it’s the future of North and South that are to be addressed.
One of the very well presented argument in LtCol Talley paper is the wrong believe in USA of the evil nature of Bashir regime.
Khartoum is a US ally in GWOT. It is also the rampart Egypt is supporting to stop Islamic opposition in its territory. And Egypt is an ally of USA.
So separation between North and South has to be smooth for North.
An idea that many southerners are not ready to support, especially in the Diaspora and among Human Rights activist; especially about Darfur. (George my friend… You should probably have staid home! Would have been easier for many of us!)
It’s also an idea that GoSS is not ready to support. After 50 years of struggle and 25 years in the bush for those in power… No way, they stay poor.
So the solution could be to overflow the place with aid. Is it feasible for the US treasure? Not so sure. And that’s exactly in that breach that Arab league countries have already put a foot.
Never the less, if US do not want Khartoum to go for war in order to distract its populace from political opposition, this will cost a lot of money.
But economical development will certainly not be sufficient to preserve Bashir regime. And that is where it becomes fuzzy. In the end, USA will certainly have to increase their military/security support to Khartoum. Not just for the sake of supporting a non democratic regime but also to prevent China to increase its grip on Sudan.
Cause all is about China vs USA.

So the first thing will be to drop the legal ban over Sudan to allow US companies to invest in all sectors in North Sudan, especially oil and security.
Then an in depth lobbying in Sudan will be necessary for US companies to invest in Sudan.
Arab league countries have already started to invest in agriculture. This is clearly one of the key alternative sectors. But the road is long to bring Sudan up to the needed standards. Recently, Khartoum failed to export livestock products to North Africa countries because of their low quality. Another alternative is to work indirectly with allies such as Egypt to strength North Sudan while USA are directly involved into supporting South.

Secondly, Darfur crisis has to be settled in a way that will affect neither Khartoum, neither Juba, neither N’djamena nor the various rebel groups. Let say a long and difficult challenge. Such settlement of the crisis will affect the US on the international stage because this will diminish the ICC credibility and reinforce the idea that Africa is a continent of impunity.
This seems dumb but this will weaken the actual US president and reinforce the impunity in other African countries. This will even reinforce the idea that China is the new perfect match for most of the African powers.

So promoting a smooth transition seems to be inaccessible. Not that it is not feasible but not really possible for too many reasons that are not in the hands of any external power. Especially western powers.

On the other hand, a war in South without US involvement in South will have extended consequences. The solution is that case could be the involvement of Uganda and other regional powers such as South Africa. Uganda is a long time SPLA friend and Salva Kiir is taking numerous contacts with South Africa.
And leave Darfur containment to the Chadian.

This looks like the most reasonable solution. But then it brings the question: how to not turn this in a new African first world war as DRC did in its time with troops of 7 countries involved in the conflict?

Anyone with a better understanding or option for the alternative solution is hightly welcome!

[M-A Lagrange]

Khartoum not ready for war, adviser says
“The most irritating one was the statement which called on youth and students from higher learning institutions in the north to prepare for war in case the south secedes, by Mustafa Osman Ismail, a presidential advisor and Secretary General for external relations in the National Congress Party.”
The southern special advisor believes that the NCP are making the statements in an attempt to get the south to vote for unity rather than independence.
“These are just political propagandas. They are not prepared for any war at all because they know they will not fight [as] it [...] was in the past. What they are making these days is a simple oratory of intimidation to scar potential southern voters in the north to vote against their will in favor of unity,” said Nyuon.
“Can Khartoum really win a war involving four regions? Will they really win any war? They may have been lucky in the past to use marginalized groups and people by using disgruntled individuals from corners of Sudan to fight their wars. But this is not what the current situation tells.” said Nyuon.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36690

This article, or more precisely the statements from Mr Nyuon, is interesting because most of the observers in Sudan have difficulties to see how a new South/North war would not happen.
Nobody wants it but nobody is capable to find an alternative to a conflict. Mainly because it seems far too obvious that both parties are almost willing to get a war. And also because most of them do not see how the referendum will not generate such a chaos which would result into a war or at least a complete collapse of the States and a wild spread of insurgencies everywhere.
And that is may be were there is a chance. Flagging the specter of war seems the only argument for both North and South.
If North will certainly find difficult to fight another war while Darfur question is not solved; South will not have it easy neither. Both sides need a big brother to support them. And as South is turning more and more to China (which does not really cares about who is in power, as many have rightfully pointed), North is trying now to attract US.

Government Demands US to Lift SanctionsThe Foreign Minister, Ali Ahmed Karti said, in a press statement yesterday following his meeting with the Chairman of U.S. Senate Committee for Foreign Relations Senator John Kerry, that they hope his visit has added a new information to Kerry to help him in a serious discussion in the U.S. Congress with regard to the Sudanese-U.S. relations.
On the same context, The Presidential Advisor for the Security Affairs, Lieutenant Salah Gosh said that Kerry's visit is considered a continuation to the American efforts to implement the CPA and that the senator came to confirm the American pledges to lift sanctions against Sudan and lift it from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism after conducting the referendum indicating that he had informed the American official of the Sudanese people despair from the American promises to lift the said sanctions.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=62260

Anyways, North is apparently preparing future:

Sudan to begin mass privatization next year: state media
During the cabinet meeting on Thursday headed by president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir, it was ordered that a list of government-owned companies to be created in preparation for their privatization. No further details were given.
The pro-government Al-Rayaam newspaper quoted the cabinet spokesperson as saying that the privatization scheme will impact all companies owned by the state.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36707

And the burning question is: Is Bashir following the steps of Mugabe to install a “sustainable dictatorship”?
In a previous post (in an another threat), I did describe the concept of “sustainable dictatorship” (versus sustainable development). A concept developed with/by a friend based on Zimbabwe case.
The sustainable dictatorship is the response to nonworking sustainable development:
- Strong dictatorial regime with regular popular consultation
- Capitalistic economy controlled by the first circle of power based on a communist like practice of economical control by the state but for personal enrichment.
- Regime legitimacy propaganda based on an external enemy: the classic paranoid state ideology
- A shift from population control from security to economy: use economical policies and terror to break middle class and opposition economical roots. Once the bourgeoisie and the upper middle class has understood that privileges come with political silence…
- Integration in the “party” or circle of power of any opposition party that manages to gain sufficient popular support to be a threat for the system. This to better isolate and corrupt it.

Future will tale us… But looks like North is ready to take that path and is putting the first bricks to pave that road.

Otherwise, the preparations for the referendum are going on… As planned…

South Sudan referendum commission receives most of the voting material
The South Sudan referendum commission (SSRC) announced today that it has received 90% of the voting material required to conduct the self-determination vote early next year.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36717

[M-A Lagrange]

Former U.S. special envoy says Turabi’s loyalists seeking to undermine referendum
The Georgetown University professor described the North-based government as "weak" with crumbling control over the Africa’s largest country.
"They are losing control of Darfur and South, people in the East from the Beja [tribe] are getting very upset.... They cancelled some very important agricultural and irrigation projects in Gezira [state]" he said.
Natsios noted controversial statements made by the former finance minister Abdel-Rahim Hamdi five years ago in which he called on the NCP to undertake massive development projects within a very limited area of the North in order to build a reliable electoral base while ignoring other parts of the country.
He also suggested that the NCP has little confidence in the loyalty of the army particularly after the attack by the Darfuri Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) on the capital in May 2008 for their belief that it is heavily infiltrated by supporters of Turabi who now heads the Popular Congress Party (PCP).
"They [the army] did not intervene [to stop the JEM attack] which I find stunning considering how close they got to overthrowing the government. Fifty percent of the army leadership was handpicked by Turabi," Natsios said. He further added that intelligence bureaus in the region believe Turabi will make another attempt to overthrow the government.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36743

That gentleman knows what he is talking about, that is for sure. And what he describes from North government is not really encouraging.
Basically, what he is pointing is that if South may collapse due to ethnical tensions, North is not in a better shape.

Talking about Sudan’s future:

Sudan peace partners postpone Addis Ababa meeting on Abyei referendum
Speaking Monday at a meeting of the UN Security Council, Sudanese ambassador at the international body warned that conducting the referendum without an agreement with the NCP and the formation of the commission means return to war.
"It is evident that any attempt to conduct the plebiscite before achieving an acceptable settlement between the two parties will mean only a return to war," said Daffa-Allah Elhaj Ali Osman.
The Sudanese presidency on the other hand postponed a meeting scheduled on Monday evening between president Bashir and vice-presidents Kiir and Ali Osman.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36723

The meeting is indefinitively postpound… A nice way to not say we failed.

While in South…

Kiir Reiterates Commitment to Work with All Political Parties
“I assure you my full support and commitment to achieve the common goals and objectives for the welfare of our people. I will work hard with the leaders of all Southern Sudanese Political Parties to implement the consensus position that we have agreed upon”, said the President.
The President made this statement shortly after reading his closing remarks in the South-South dialogue in Nyakuron Cultural Center Juba where a total political parties met to discuss the political future of the region.

http://jubapost.org/index.php?option...tics&Itemid=56


But particpants are not that convinced:

USAP says recent South-South dialogue a waste of time
Ukel said the recent concluded dialogue is not news and added that there is lack of implementation of resolutions drawn by all the parties in all conferences held by the SPLM.
He criticized the continuous call for conferences as a waste of time if resolutions are never implemented. “That is why so many of us consider the holding of conferences with the SPLM and the National Congress Party-NCP a futile exercises”, said Ukel.
That; “up to now the SPLM has sought for conferences and consultations but has chosen to implement the resolutions of those conferences unilaterally”.

http://jubapost.org/index.php?option...tics&Itemid=56

[M-A Lagrange]

During the week end, the SPLA and the SAF clashed. They exchanged fire and are accusing each other to have started the mambo jambo…

North, South Sudan armies trade accusations over fresh clashes in border areaThe two parties agreed that their troops clashed in the morning of Saturday but the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) says that Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) soldiers penetrated inside Upper Nile state and the latter says SPLA troops attacked them inside Sennar state.
Southern Sudan army spokesperson Kuol Diem Kuol, said Sunday that troops from northern Sudan army ambushed SPLA soldiers and returned back to their positions.
"They clashed with about 10 of our soldiers and wounded one officer and then they ran back to their base," said Kuol.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36793

Another link, (in French, sorry couldn’t get one in English, but I’ll do my best to translate)

Nord et Sud s'accusent d'un accrochage armé à la frontière

Les forces de l'Armée populaire de libération du Soudan (SPLA, sudiste) ont "attaqué samedi nos positions dans le secteur de Zemmali, situé à cinq kilomètres du côté nord de la frontière de 1956, dans l'Etat de Sennar", a déclaré tard lundi soir le porte-parole de l'armée soudanaise (nordiste), Sawarmi Khaled Saad, à l'agence officielle Suna.
"L'attaque a duré une heure et nos forces armées ont été en mesure de repousser les assaillants du SPLA du côté sud de la frontière de 1956", date de l'indépendance du Soudan par rapport aux autorités égypto-britanniques, a-t-il ajouté.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...555062019b.7f1

North and South accuse each other about a skirmish on the border

The SPLA “attacked our position on Saturday in the area of Zemmali, 5 kilometers north from 1956, in Sennar State” declared Monday evening the SAF speaker, Sawarmi Khaled Saad to SUNA, the official press agency.

“The attack stand for 1 hour and our forces have been able to push back SPLA assailants south of 1956 border”, Sudan independence date according to British Egyptian authorities, he added.

As an immediate result?

Obama renews Sudan sanctions
Tommy Vietor, the White House spokesman, said the US hoped Sudan's leaders "will make the urgent and difficult choices necessary to secure peace for the Sudanese people".
"As we work to support these choices, the United States will review the Sudanese government's progress on resolving outstanding [peace agreement] implementation issues as well as other relevant circumstances, to include improving security and humanitarian access in Darfur," he said.
"If the government of Sudan acts to improve the situation on the ground and advance peace, we stand ready to work with Sudan to ensure its rightful place in the international community."
Obama last week stressed the need to go ahead with the vote as scheduled

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/af...135816881.html

This is the first grave breach in the CPA since Abeyi. Are they just tasting water or are we already in the crazy war spiral?
Time will tell. But one thing is sure, the dance has started and there is blood on the dance floor.

[M-A Lagrange]

While GoSS is wondering if they will or not delay the referendum, Athor finally won his insurgency:

Forces of rebel-general, George Athor rejoins southern army – SPLA
November 9, 2010 (JUBA) – The forces loyal to the former Deputy Chief of General Staff of south Sudan’s army - the Sudan People’s Liberation Army - have begun the process of rejoining the SPLA five months after their rebellion began.
Athor did not attend a recent conference of southern Sudan’s political groups, instead sending three of his officials to represent him.
However, in statement to the media on Monday, the Governor of Jonglei state, Kuol Manyang Juuk, confirmed that forces of Gen. Athor had now begun to rejoin the SPLA forces in Jonglei state.
Juuk who was Athor’s rival during the elections, said the forces were moving to rejoin SPLA Division Eight in charge of Jonglei state, which is currently under the command of Major General Peter Bol Kong.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36874

Victory has a price but is always political solution the less costly one?

[M-A Lagrange]

Head of Sudan referendum commission accuse donors of withholding cash
Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) Chairperson Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil shows a sample voting card during a news conference at the SSRC headquarters in Khartoum, November 14, 2010 (Reuters)
"They give us finished goods, materials just as you cater for a minor. You don’t give a minor cash in case they should misuse it but give them finished goods and services which, incidentally, we resent," Khalil was quoted as saying by Reuters.
"The party which has not availed us of any usable money so far is the international donors," he added.
Khalil also blasted hiring foreign contractors and experts which in one situation complicated the process rather than facilitate it without seeing if there were competent Sudanese to do the same job. He said they had appointed a U.S. law firm which made incomprehensible regulations based on the referendum law. The commission finally had to find a Sudanese firm to do the job.
"This is an utter waste of money," he said, adding the commission had been delayed by six weeks in moving into its offices because of the delay in funds from the donors.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36944
Viewing how North and South did handel last electoral process, I would just make no comments… It says already a lot!

I would recommend to read this:

How U.S. Government Policy Could Push the Country Back Into Civil War.
"The United States must make a credible threat that it will employ retaliatory actions against those who ignite renewed war, perhaps even using missiles to take out strategic targets."
12 November 2010
BY RICHARD WILLIAMSON
Former Sudan Envoy

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...1/Default.aspx
I will also not comment it as it is internal US politic but this shows how important it is for an external powerto have his house in order when it comes to support a foreign country military process.

And finally the big news:
North did bomb sites in Northern Bar El Ghazal! But north to the 1956 border, so technically nothing happened in South Sudan.
The only trick is that no body was prepared for this and it is complicating a little more the relations between North and South as yet Khartoum accuses South to support JEM. In Northern Bar El Ghazal actually…

Khartoum’s army bomb South Sudan, targeting Darfur rebels
Colonel Philip Aguer Panyang, official spokesperson for Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army, on Saturday told Sudan Tribune from the regional capital of Juba that two military aircrafts belonging to the Khartoum-controlled SAF dropped bombs on southern territory in the state of Northern Bahr el Ghazal.
"I am told by our forces on the ground in Northern Bahr el Ghazal that the air attack occurred on Friday. No death causalities have been reported but there are reports that 8 civilians have sustained serious injuries. Some of these victims with light injuries are being nursed in the local clinic in Gok Machar but those with inflicted shrapnel injuries and are at critical conditions have been moved to Aweil civil hospital," explained Panyang.
"We contacted central command of the Sudan Armed Forces yesterday night seeking explanation of why they bombarded our territory. The explanation they gave us in response was that they were pursuing rebel forces. They said it was not their intention to bomb our areas. They were only following routes of the Darfur rebels," explained Panyang.
Sudan Armed Forces spokesperson Al-Sawarmi Khaled, accused the southern Sudan ruling party of supporting JEM saying the southern army (SPLA) evacuated wounded rebels to Juba and to Uganda.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36929

SPLM Provides JEM leaders with Training and Medical Treatment
SMC follow-up revealed that the SPLM continued providing support to JEM aiming at creating a buffer zone all over the bordering lines of Bahr El-Ghazal State and causing tensions in that area.

Several meetings were held between a number of JEM and SPLM leaders in the framework of supporting the strategic trends between the two parties to expand the zone of war in Darfur.
Eye witnesses said that the SPLA leaders supervised the evacuation of JEM injured elements after Al-Majrour battle, adding that there contacts between Sulieman Sandal of JEM and SPLM to provide the necessary vehicles to evacuate 46 injured JEM elements from southern Buram area.
Sources affirmed that there is coordination between the SPLM and JEM through which the former provides support to the latter to continue its rebellion against the government.
Informed sources pointed out that the SPLM is conducting consultations to support JEM with (120) military vehicles besides opening several training camps and supporting the movement in recruiting more rebels to bridge the gap in its elements.
The SPLM also promised to expand the support to JEM to continue its war from south Sudan after it is expelled from Chad.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=63364

It’s incredible how borders can be important! Cause SPLA is saying it happened on our soil while technically it happened north to the 1956 border recognised as the CPA border.
Anyways, all eyes were on the oil fields while the war may start on Darfur border.

[M-A Lagrange]

Few days ago, the UN secretary general was alarmed by drums of war beats…

Apparently he was not heard in South Sudan:

South Sudan president says Abyei belongs to Dinka Ngok
Addressing the closing session of a two day conference on the ‘urgent popular demand for implementation of the Abyei referendum’ in the south’s capital Juba Salva Kiir said that "Abyei belongs to the Ngok Dinka". He further said the SPLM would not ink an agreement on outstanding issues related to Sudan’s assets, water or oil without concluding a deal on Abyei with the National Congress Party (NCP).
The former South African president Thabo Mbeki and Chairman of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan told the UN Security Council on Tuesday that the President Omer Al-Bashir and his first deputy will meet during next week of 22 November to discuss Abyei referendum.
Mebeki further stressed that both parties have agreed to "do everything possible to reach an agreement on this issue as a matter of urgency".
Regarding the future of the cattle herder nomads in the area, Kiir said that South Sudan would be able to provide services to members of the Misseriya tribe in Abyei but would not give them the right to own the land.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36971

We are ready to defend Abyei if attacked says Kiir
- President Salva Kiir has warned National Congress Party not turn Abyei into another Kashmir, and “if they do we are ready for it”. Addressing the opening of the Abyei Ngok Dinka consultative conference at Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly in Juba, the president said “people are telling me that we cannot return to war because of Abyei.
My position is Abyei will not be left behind”. He added, “we have been lying to the people of Abyei until the lies became useless, we cannot give a piece of land to Misseriya. Nothing kills a man beside the land this is our position, don’t think that the NCP is powerful that they can take the land by force. If they attack us we have the right to self defence”.
“Let me assure that SPLM will take the lead on resolving the Abyei issue. We abhor violence. The youth should not take the law into their hands”. Said the President. He said that the people of Abyei are not registering together with south Sudan because the NCP has delayed formation of the Abyei Referendum Commission. “We failed to establish the commission.

http://jubapost.org/index.php?option...news&Itemid=67

Once again, SPLM is playing the ethnical line (So does Khartoum) while the issue is elsewhere:

Standoff over Abyei dominates consultative discussions between peace partners
The senior official of the south’s ruling party says their partner in the CPA is attempting many bargaining tactics to get the best deal it can for before the likely breakup of the country.
"Officials from the National Congress Party are trying their best. They are knocking all doors in attempt to bargain with interest that we split the national debts, share oil resources as stipulated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement even if the south secedes," he explained.
Under the CPA the north and south split revenues from the south’s oil fields were split 50-50.
He also accused the NCP of attempting to draw the north-south border so that more of Sudan’s oil is north of the as yet un-demarcated border.
"They are also trying to ensure that north-south borders are drawn in their favor so that it brings more oil into the north and continue removing oil in the north from reservoirs that run into the south," he explained.
The former senior member of the NCP, who defected to the SPLM in 2007, says all eyes of his former party are fixed on Abyei because of its oil.
“The cause of all stalemates is Abyei. The NCP sees Abyei as nothing but wealth. This is why they have not been able to reach [a] compromise with our team involved in discussions over the issue of this region because they know Abyei is their last pocket. They are fearing economical collapse,” said Mathok.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36982

November 22... Might be the first official day of peace... or war...