Somalia: not piracy catch all thread

[Bill Moore]

An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:

Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/20...n-desperation/

Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.

Seems we have heard this spin many times before. How many times have Al-Qaeda and Al Shabaab been on their last leg and about to die off? I agree the recent trend for Al Shabaab hasn't been good, but they still control a large section of Somalia, they still have control of around 5,000 fighters, and they were able to orchestrate a very sophisticated attack in another country, potentially with a multinational group of terrorists. If true that could imply the capacity to do the same in some locations in the West.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/22/world/...baab-analysis/

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Al-Shabaab has threatened revenge on Kenya ever since Kenyan forces entered Somalia.

Mall attack shows Al-Shabaab has taken its ability to strike outside Somalia to a new level.

The operation meets criteria that al Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri listed in a recent message.

Al-Shabaab allies in region include Kenyan militant group al Hijra and Eritrean government.

After years of infighting and feuds, the Nairobi attack may also confirm the ascendancy of Al-Shabaab's most militant faction and its leader Mukhtar Abu al Zubayr (aka Ahmed Abdi Godane). Zubayr attended a madrassa in Pakistan as a young man and merged the group with al Qaeda in February 2012. He sees Al-Shabaab as part of al Qaeda's global jihad.

Dissenters have defected or been killed. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys of Al-Shabaab's old guard surrendered to Somali authorities.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/kenya-...ry?id=20336438

During Congressional testimony in January 2012, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper listed al-Shabaab as one of the most significant terror threats to the homeland, in part due to a "foreign fighter cadre that includes U.S. passport holders... [who] may have aspirations to attack inside the United States."

However, a senior law enforcement official said the latest U.S. government analysis shows no heightened threat to the U.S. as a result of the Kenya attack. While al-Shabaab does have a desire to strike at Western targets in Africa, hitting the U.S. homeland is "not a priority" for them, the official said.

No predictions from me on this one, we'll see where this goes over the next few months.