Somalia: not piracy catch all thread

[SWJ Blog]

AEI Somalia Online Briefing

From SWJ Blog (with fuller details)

Via E-mail: Please join American Enterprise Institute Resident Scholar, and Director of the Critical Threats Project, Frederick W. Kagan on Monday, April 5, 2010 from 1:30 to 2:30 pm for a live online video briefing on the terror threat from Somalia. Also contributing to the discussion will be Critical Threats Analyst Christopher Harnisch who will discuss the Somali terror group al Shabaab.

While American efforts to combat international terrorism continue to focus on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, other regions have become safe havens for militant Islamist groups. This terror threat became a reality when an operative of an al Qaeda franchise based in Yemen tried to blow up a Detroit-bound plane with nearly three hundred people on board, on Christmas Day 2009.

Today, a terror threat is growing in Somalia, across from Yemen on the Gulf of Aden. A militant Islamist group called al Shabaab (resembling a hybrid of al Qaeda and the Taliban) has explicitly threatened to attack the United States. This terror group has established radical Islamist administrations that govern large parts of southern Somalia – more territory than any other militant Islamist group in the world. It operates terrorist training camps, views itself as part of the global jihad led by Osama bin Laden, has dozens of operatives from the United States and Europe, and has followed through on previous threats made against Somali targets. The threat posed by al Shabaab is real and imminent, and Americans should not be surprised if the group tries to attack the U.S.

[AdamG]

BERLIN — A private security firm's plan to deploy more than 100 German ex-soldiers to Somalia to work for a warlord has triggered intense media coverage and was harshly criticized by lawmakers on Tuesday, some of them calling it a possible violation of U.N. sanctions against the war-ridden East African country.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...C6aFwD9FTTBR81

"Hurry up, Tommy, before zee Germans get here". - Turkish, SNATCH

[JJackson]

I would be interested in what the rest of you think.
It is very close to my position, which is not always quite how other council members see things.

Somalia - A new approach by Bronwyn Bruton

[Ken White]

monograph. The American penchant for 'fixing' things is not at all helpful in many cases...

[dangcox]

Finally! A punitive strike aimed at dealing with the piracy problem. But I fear there will be no follow through and eventually a "hearts and minds" argument will be made by someone in power resulting in a large-scale humanitarian/nation-building/stability operation.

Given the extremely low opinion Somalis have for Americans after it has been wrongly interpreted by many Somali citizens that the US government supported the Ethiopian seizure of Mogadishu in 2008 (which eventually helped to solidify Al Shabab as a major player there), I think any major operation in Somalia should be pretty easy (can one be sarcastic in a blog post?)

Yours

DC

[JarodParker]

New al-Qaida threat: Somali group claims blasts

KAMPALA, Uganda – East Africa saw the emergence of a new international terrorist group Monday, as Somalia's most dangerous al-Qaida-linked militia claimed responsibility for the twin bombings in Uganda that killed 74 people during the World Cup.
The claim by al-Shabab, whose fighters are trained by militant veterans of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, resets the security equation in East Africa and has broader implications worldwide. The group in the past has recruited Somali-Americans to carry out suicide bombings in Mogadishu.

Also, a Current TV documentary on US-born Al-shaba commander Omar Hammami... Vanguard

[dangcox]

JarodParker,

This is a very interesting development and I am afraid one that might eventually lead to a large-scale military intervention. The fear for a while now has been that Al Shabab would begin operations outside of Somalia. Kenya was the most likely target according to experts but the Uganda attack makes a lot of sense given the number of troops from Uganda intervening in Somalia.

I am growing increasingly worried that this or a number of other triggers are developing that will prompt a president to intervene again in Somalia. Please note I am not advocating sitting on our hands in the Somalia case. My fear revolves around the proclivity for the response to be pre-ordained as a large-scale coin or stability operation. There are other options which need to be considered, and in my opinion, implemented first.

Cheers

DC

[JarodParker]

Hey DC,

I doubt the US (or any other western nation) will undertake a large scale military intervention in Somalia due to the lack of national will, the strain our military is currently under and the cost associated with such operations. Not to mention the incident from 1993. Ethiopia would probably be the most ideal target for AS since the government there isn’t too shy about antagonizing them. Even one of the locations of Sunday’s attack in Uganda was an Ethiopian restaurant. But I guess the regime in Addis has the country locked down pretty tight (fingers crossed) for the terrorist resort to bombing softer targets elsewhere.

Anything that resembles large scale coin (ala OIF and OEF) doesn’t seem very likely to me. Instead, I see the US operating through proxies and orchestrating other activities that don’t require actual American boots on the ground. For instance, providing assistance to the “Somali government,” funding CT programs in neighboring countries, training frontier corps, police and military units in neighboring countries, patrolling the coast, etc. Maybe once in a while a HVT snatch like the one that took place a few months ago. For now this is Africa’s problem and as you suggested there are definitely options other than Operation Somali Freedom. Hopefully these options don’t end up propping evil regimes as well as making us new enemies.

Just my $.02

[Rex Brynen]

It doesn't help, of course, that not all of the TFG troops are sure what side they are on, or necessarily care!

As I was saying....

Guards for Somali Leader Join Islamists

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and MOHAMED IBRAHIM
New York Times, 22 July 2010

NAIROBI, Kenya — Somali officials acknowledged on Thursday that members of Somalia’s presidential guard had defected to the Shabab, the radical Islamist insurgent group that claimed responsibility for the recent bombings in Uganda that killed more than 70 people watching the final game of the World Cup.

The defection of some of the president’s best-trained men is the latest setback for Somalia’s beleaguered transitional government, which has lost important pieces of territory in the past few days. Insurgents are now 300 yards — a rifle shot away — from the presidential palace.

...

[davidbfpo]

Copied from Studies on Radicalisation thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=7188

The BBC have this article supporting a File on Four radio documentary, on the unclear impact of Al-Shabab on the Somali community in the UK:

Jenny Cuffe investigates how British-based Somalis are being lured into fighting for the al-Qaeda-linked Islamists of al-Shabaab.

There have been consistent rumours that dozens, perhaps scores of British-based Somali men have travelled to Somalia to join the militant Islamist group which was banned by the British Government earlier this year.

File on 4 explores the techniques used by Al-Shabaab to persuade young members of the 250,000-strong British Somali community to sign up for Jihad in Somalia. Members of the close-knit and reticent British Somali community tell Jenny Cuffe of their fears that youngsters are being seduced through the internet and by shadowy recruiting sergeants for the Horn of Africa's most feared military force.

And the programme travels to the state of Minnesota to see how a vigorous FBI investigation and cooperation from the Somali community have laid-bare a pipeline which first lured, then transported young American Somalis to the training camps and battlefields of Somalia.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11667690 and the File on Four podcast:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00vkxkc

I noted the references by US Customs to the issues around Khat being smuggled into the USA, via the UK originating from Kenya and the suspected fund raising for Al-Shabbab. Khat is not illegal in the UK, unlike the rest of the EU and USA.

[davidbfpo]

Hopefully there will be more than this short report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...mogadishu.html

No great surprises and I am somewhat sceptical about polling there. This struck me as welcome:

There's a growing consensus that the "top-down" approach to state building isn't working in Somalia, and it may be time to shift focus to the handful of local administrations that are actually making some headway. The northern region of Somaliland is a prime example.

Incidentally BBC Radio is reported President Museveni is in Mogadishu too now.

[JMA]

Here is an article which is a great backgrounder to the greater Somalia problems.

Somalia, 1992 – Libya, 2011: Are they really as different as we imagine?

Actually it reads like a horror story. But it does attempt to answer a number of questions some around here like M-A have asked.

And once again the question must be asked... "where has all the money gone?"

[davidbfpo]

JMA,

A good find, although depressing and no wonder so few outsiders want to be engaged. Not much religious empathy and support on display, yes from the Muslim world. Instead a steady dribble of non-African money and a motley crew of African, mainly Christian soldiers fighting through a wrecked city sprawl.

I do wonder if both the West and the UN/AU mission left - plus no more money - what would happen. As I have said before that part of Somalia is slowly shrinking, as those who can leave for Somaliland, Yemen and far beyond. Who actually funds the conflict still, apart from inter-Somali trading?

[AdamG]

It's a gruesome display seen many times over the years in Mogadishu: The bodies of dead soldiers dragged through the streets. Somalis angry over 20 years of violence say they do it in hopes of driving out African Union forces.

The latest incident happened Thursday, when the body of a fighter who appeared to be a member of the AU's peacekeeping mission was pulled through the streets by a rope. The spokesman for the country's most dangerous militant group, al-Shabab, also displayed a body alongside documents that identified the man as a Ugandan soldier.

"Today we are celebrating the death and blood of your sons," Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage said at a news conference Thursday.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...mid=obinsource

[JMA]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...mid=obinsource

A quote from the article states "The people drag the corpses to force these so-called peacekeepers to leave the country,..."

Do they think it will work because they think it was that which worked to get the US out or because that would work if applied against them?

[davidbfpo]

In recent weeks the extent of a drought in the region has appeared, linked to reports of an increasing flow of refugees out of Somalia, notably into Kenya and a decision by Al-Shabaab to allow international aid into the areas it controls. All these matters are in the media.

The Quillam Foundation (London think tank) has published a short report on the links between extremists in Somalia and Yemen. I noted references to fighters and experts moving to the Yemen. Link:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/im...ab14july11.pdf

Personally I am not convinced, partly due to geography and logistics. Sometime ago I did post on the flow of refugees across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen, so there is a Somali presence already - who had fled what Al-Shabaab had helped create.

[davidbfpo]

Forgiven my (comment), but I found this short article too optimistic and the sub-title 'With a little more donor support, international forces can help drive al-Shabab out of Mogadishu'. The author is the head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

We now effectively control two-thirds of the city -- some 16 square miles -- with more than two dozen security outposts scattered throughout the city. More importantly, this has created a relatively safe haven for 80 percent of the estimated 2 million people who live in Mogadishu's southwestern neighborhoods.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...malia?page=0,0

Incidentally a more detailed, military account appeared in the June/July RUSI Journal by ANISOM's military commander.

[SWJED]

28 July BBC - Eritrea 'Arming' Somali Militia.

Insurgents in Somalia have received huge numbers of weapons in secret shipments from Eritrea, the UN says.

There are now more arms in Somalia than at any time since the civil war started in 1991, the UN report says.

Eritrea, which has repeatedly denied aiding the insurgents, dismissed the report as a "total fabrication"...

[Beelzebubalicious]

It's worth reading the UN monitoring report in full. There's some interesting information in here. I like the statement by Zalmay Khalilazad on behalf of the US Government that the US conducted several strikes in self defense against Al Qaida operatives and that these attacks didn't violate the "plain meaning" of the UN Security Council Resolution requiring a "general and complete embargo on all deliveries of weapons and military equipment to Somalia".

Here's a link to the full Somalia Monitoring report:
http://www.eritreadaily.net/News0307/RPRTSOMMNGRP.pdf

there's also some good analysis and interview on VOA with Timothy Othieno, a senior researcher at the Institute for Global Dialogue in Midrand, South Africa. He basically states that there is a proxy war being fought in Somalia between Ethiopia and Eritrea and that it stems from the unresolved border dispute (mainly the issue of the return of Badme to Eritrea) and that the UN (and by extension, international community) is to blame for not enforcing the border ruling.

http://www.voanews.com/english/Afric...7-27-voa27.cfm

[Jedburgh]

HRW, 13 Aug 07: Shell-Shocked: Civilians Under Siege in Mogadishu

...The conflict in Mogadishu in 2007 involves Ethiopian and Somali government forces against a coalition of insurgent groups. It is a conflict that has been marked by numerous violations of international humanitarian law that have been met with a shameful silence and inaction on the part of key foreign governments and international institutions.

Violations of the laws of war documented in this report include the deployment of insurgent forces in densely populated neighborhoods and the widespread, indiscriminate bombardment of these areas by Ethiopian forces. The deliberate nature of these bombardments, evidence of criminal intent, strongly suggests the commission of war crimes....