Rethinking Which Terror Groups to Fear

[Bill Moore]

If Al Qaeda somehow eventually ceases to exist as a core functioning terrorist organization, who do you see taking it's place at the forefront of the global jihadist movement? Also whoever takes Al Qaeda's place in this position be the same or even more dangerous then AQ, could it be even be a state supported organization etc? I know again I'm casting a wide net here but in my opinion, such an organization would come out of Pakistan, or more in Central Asia it's self.

There are a lot of opinions on this, and of course there is no consensus because no one really knows (even the Group out there that envisons itself being the next AQ doesn't know if it will succeed). While a new leader may emerge, I don't think a supreme leader is required anymore. AQ kick started the movement globally and provided the ideology. As long as the umbrella ideology still has traction with an audience, then it is probable that the global jihadist struggle will continue (hopefully with less intensity). that there would have to be a leader of the global jihadist movement.

Where will the next leading Islamist terrorist groups come from? It seems probable that that the next major group could emerge from Central Asia, and they may find some degree of State support there as well; however, it is also likely that the next group could emerge in the Horn of Africa, Yemen, Iraq, etc.?

I do agree that future groups could be, and likely will be more dangerous than AQ based on two factors (assuming their ideology supports mass murder):

1. New technologies and knowledge (bioscience for example) available to potential terrorists.

2. Organizations are capable of learning, so in theory a new or emerging group will avoid many of the mistakes that AQ made.

As for State support, that is generally a fickle condition. The U.S. provided support to the Afghan resistance, and it isn't far fetched to assume that Islamic and non-Islamic states may now be providing support to the current Afghan resistance to weaken our position in Central Asia.

One final thought, we should keep in mind that terrorist groups could emerge again from the far left, environmentalis, the far right, etc., not just from jihadists.

[Valin]

So true. I just watched this 30 minute TED-clip where during the interview at the end the same reflection is made.

Fascinating. Thanks
Fear them? No. They (Islamic terrorist) are a problem to be dealt with.

Rand Corp.: Unconquerable Nation Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves
Brian Michael Jenkins

Also Freerepublic.com: Keyword UnconquerableNation

CHAPTER ONE How We Prevail: Secret Service agents gunned down the first team of assassins before they got to the President, but it was a close call. A second team of gunmen managed to get into the House of Representatives, where they wounded five congressmen. A terrorist bomb caused damage but no casualties at the Senate. Troops took up positions at the Capitol and the White House, both of which had been set ablaze. By sundown, Washington was sliding out of control; columns of black smoke could be seen for miles. Authorities were unable to save the White House, which was completely destroyed by fire.

In New York City, a huge vehicle bomb exploded on Wall Street, killing 33 people and wounding more than 400. Another bomb exploded in downtown Los Angeles, killing at least 20. Yet another bomb killed and maimed hundreds in the heartland. An explosion leveled a Texas town, while fires destroyed most of Chicago and San Francisco.

That was not as bad, however, as an inexplicable deadly epidemic that hit the nation’s capital in the summer. By autumn, onetenth of the city’s population had died. Similar deadly outbreaks swept across the country. Nationwide, 1 in 200 Americans died. Cities announced their own blockades against those fleeing the stricken areas. The fabric of society was unraveling with riots and looting.

Following riots, the Army patrolled the streets in Washington, Detroit, and Los Angeles; 120,000 people were interned as potential subversives. The worst crisis, however, was the receipt of a credible nuclear threat.

All this is not some hypothetical future terrorist scenario invented by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to test preparedness, the screenplay for a new Hollywood disaster thriller, or a survivalist fantasy. All of the events listed above, in fact, occurred during the course of America’s history. In 1950, assassins tried to rush Blair House, where President Truman was staying while renovations were under way at the White House. In 1954, terrorists opened fire on the House of Representatives. A bomb caused heavy damage to the Senate in 1983. And British troops burned down the White House and part of the newly constructed Capitol building in 1814, when only a rainstorm saved the rest of Washington.

A horse-drawn cart filled with explosives (an early vehicle bomb) blew up on Wall Street in 1920, and suspected members of the Dynamite Conspiracy set off a huge bomb in Los Angeles in 1910. Timothy McVeigh’s bomb killed 168 people in Oklahoma City in 1995. In 1947, a ship loaded with nitrate fertilizer blew up, leveling Texas City. The city of Chicago was destroyed by fire in 1871. San Francisco was destroyed by fire following the 1906 earthquake. In 1793, yellow fever killed 5,000 people, one-tenth of the total population of Philadelphia, which at the time was the nation’s capital. Subsequent yellow fever and cholera outbreaks killed thousands in American cities during the nineteenth century, but none of these outbreaks compared with the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918–1919, which killed approximately 600,000 people in the United States and between 25 and 50 million worldwide. Race riots required calling out the National Guard and federal troops in a number of cities in the second half of the twentieth century. I personally watched the columns of smoke through a train window as the train pulled out of Union Station in Washington, DC, on April 14, 1968, at the beginning of the widespread race riots following the assassination of Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. During World War II, 120,000 Japanese-Americans were interned.

(Snip)

There has been too much fearmongering since 9/11. We are not a nation of victims cowering under the kitchen table. We cannot expect protection against all risk. Too many Americans have died defending liberty for us to easily surrender it now to terror. We should heed the admonition that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt delivered in his 1933 inaugural address: “Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.” It should not be fear that propels us, but confidence that we will ultimately prevail. We have never been driven forward by fear. At our best, we have been defined by our visions.

(Snip)