Losing the War of Exhaustion

[MikeF]

BG (ret.) Mark T. Kimmit wrote this essay on Afghanistan for Foreign Policy.

As Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, awaits a response from the White House on his assessment of the war effort, some would suggest that doubt is growing on Capitol Hill and in towns and cities across the United States about whether America can win this fight.

This doubt is misplaced. The truth is that there are more than enough troops, civilians, money, and operational capability available between the United States, NATO forces, and our Afghan allies to defeat the Taliban and assist in rebuilding Afghan society. There is no reason to fear losing a war of attrition. The major danger in Afghanistan is losing a war of exhaustion.

I agree with BG Kimmit that AQ has changed strategy to a war of exhaustion; however, I disagree that A'stan is the decisive point. He cites Mullah Omar's Eid speech as one calling for a protracted guerilla campaign to outlast the Americans, but Mullah Omar is the head of the Taliban not AQ. The Taliban has never been an existential threat to the US.

AQ central took a significant blow with the actions of Zarqawi and the failure of the ISI in Iraq. I believe they accepted the loss in that battle and are attempting to regroup. Their strategy is EXACTLY what BG Kimmit is proposing- suck us into a war of exhaustion in A'stan and Pakistan.

We don't have to win in A'stan to defeat, deter, or outlast AQ; however, we could lose big time by throwing too much money and soldiers in A'stan. Ten years from now, we may "win" in A'stan just like we "won" in Iraq, but AQ could just move to another country. Ten years from now, we could be dealing with real war-exhaustion.

On the other hand, AQ central appears severly fractured right now. Increased CT operations could be a tipping point coupled with a much smaller FID/SFA presence in A'stan to help shore up a smaller centralized gov't.

As we continue to debate A'stan, I believe it is imperative to look long term and hollistically to determine the best least-bad solution. If we can find that, then we would certainly win.

v/r

Mike