FOB Keating attack repulsed

[omarali50]

Mike,
Ignoring the "big picture" (whether the US should be there in the first place and what victory may look like overall), you are perfectly correct in tactical terms and one hopes that a capable and determined army would have officers trained to think like this. The single most effective response would indeed be to go in full force and stay, but I dont think that is going to happen.. Are there other options? Just pulling out would give them a big propaganda victory, but is it possible to pull out but still send the message that there will be payback and eventually THIS army will win? I am asking as an amateur with no knowledge of the local area (and little knowledge of the nuts and bolts of modern war). What would an alternative "second best" strategy look like? Drones? raids? blockade? what?

[tequila]

MikeF,

My instinct says that you're absolutely right.

My rational side argues that not a little bit of that instinct is based on the emotional desire for payback. More importantly, since despite all the media attention we are still in an economy-of-force mission for Afghanistan, what areas will be shorted to pay for a brigade in Nuristan? Do we want to be that kind of reactive force, piling into whatever area where the enemy chooses to hurt us badly? Would it really be worth it to us that much to dominate Nuristan, vs. protecting Kabul or Badghis or Kunduz?

[Ken White]

a map recon and then apply some basic METT-TC considerations.

The US, NATO, other Coalition Members and the Afghan government do not and will not have enough force to do the population centric COIN thing.

Moving Coalition Forces to the population centers will cede those Afghans, predominately Pushtuns who do NOT live in the centers and are the bulk of the population in the south where the problems are, to the opponent.

Platoon and Company sized outposts can always be overrun by the ability of the opponents to mass flexibly and covertly.

If you apply adequate force in Area A, the bad guys will simply go to Area B, knowing you do not have enough people to cover the region. Move to Area B and they'll go to C, cover all three and they go to City X -- they will always be more flexible than you and they will always have people who know the terrain intimately.

Thus, other than continued pointless frittering away of troops in overrun outposts there are two basic options. Fewer outposts with massive backup forces a short helicopter ride away (with all the military and political problems and shortfalls that entails) or careful selection of choke points to interdict the movement of the opponent -- we and they can only do so much with given terrain -- and a whole lot of foot and light vehicle mobile hunting teams on our part.

My perception is that the we will do neither. We do not have the force to do the first and the force we do have is inadequately trained to do the second.
Sixty years of over emphasis on Armor has had an adverse impact on us. We have forgotten how to fight on foot.

We've also forgotten, unbelievably, that installations and that's what we're building -- installations in a COIN fight, fer chissakes, -- are static and invite attack and that if they are located in a Valley, the bad guys will simply occupy the high ground and nail you while you cannot see them. We should've figured that out at Ticonderoga 232 years ago (among other places ...).

We are playing to the strengths of our opponents.

[Infanteer]

We've also forgotten, unbelievably, that installations and that's what we're building -- installations in a COIN fight, fer chissakes, -- are static and invite attack and that if they are located in a Valley, the bad guys will simply occupy the high ground and nail you while you cannot see them. We should've figured that out at Ticonderoga 232 years ago (among other places ...).

We are playing to the strengths of our opponents.

To quote Robert DeNiro in the movie Heat:

A guy told me one time, "Don't let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner." Now, if you're on me and you gotta move when I move, how do you expect to keep a... a marriage?

Just change marriage to installation....

[Rebecca White]

An old article that describes Camp Keating in Nurestan:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/20...tan/index.html

From the article:

From the pine- and cedar-lined mountain slope that loomed over the base, several insurgents were firing down on us

I believe this is the same outpost that was attacked on Saturday - just manned by a different unit two years later.

Ken, you said:

the bad guys will simply occupy the high ground and nail you while you cannot see them. We should've figured that out at Ticonderoga 232 years ago (among other places ...).

I had just finished skimming that salon article when I read your comment. I had been thinking something very similar.

Thanks for the discussion.

My heart, too, goes out to the family and friends of the fallen.