Use of polling as a metric

[Ken White]

as well as Malysia, Indonesia and the southern Philippines where societal rules make it difficult to talk to women, difficult for them to give an honest opinion.

Far more importantly and harmfully to polling in the western sense, all respondents are due to innate politeness going to tell you in part what they THINK you want to hear and in pure pragmatism, tell you in part what is beneficial to them or their kin or friends. The percentage of politeness and pragmatism will vary dependent upon who the pollster is and on the subject of the poll -- but those two factors will always skew the poll results.

Recall also Al Taqqiya -- and that it applies based on not to whom one is speaking but to the end recipient...

Recall also the rule of thumb; If given a figure, decrement or enhance it by 80% depending on which way will make the provider look less good. Born hagglers. Neither of those things is a lie in the western sense; the first is dissimulation religiously encouraged (some believe mandated), the second is telling you something that makes the teller look good -- which is required -- or is what he thinks you'd like to hear. Not immoral or wrong, just different. Really different.

Moderator's note: Today Bob's World has posed a question, in a thread on Afghanistan, which deserved this thread's creation - on Post No.4, so start there and return here!

[Fuchs]

Some hawks like to refer to mysterious polls that allegedly show that most (like 60-90%) of the Afghans (they never seem to ask only Pashtuns these questions) want ISAF to stay and Taliban to be defeated.

[omarali50]

Ken,
I think the situation with Taqiya does not apply to polling. Taqqiya as a conscious act is most likely when a particular individual is hiding his real views because of the danger HE or she may face OR when a committed ideologue knows what the party line is and acts to further those aims. I cannot think of any examples where a large population would change answers to suit ideological imperatives...not if questions are prepared a little carefully. Basically, what I am saying is that large populations are not thinking that deeply about the poll you are doing. For example, one could argue that committed islamists being interviewed on CNN may hide their real views about hating infidels because they know what the needs of propaganda are, but the "general population" is unlikely to think that far ahead or that specifically.
Btw, what i have a hard time figuring out is how little people in the West (or its media) seem to know about the aims and ambitions of the committed islamists when they routinely broadcast their views to anyone willing to listen. Their views dont show up in general polling to the same extent because the general population is not part of the "vanguard" party...but they are the views that matter, not the views of the "general public". This is not an election, its a war.

[Ken White]

I think the situation with Taqiya does not apply to polling. Taqqiya as a conscious act is most likely when a particular individual is hiding his real views because of the danger HE or she may face OR when a committed ideologue knows what the party line is and acts to further those aims.

And when the respondent has a sense of humor and like to confuse and befuddle.

I cannot think of any examples where a large population would change answers to suit ideological imperatives...not if questions are prepared a little carefully.

The last item is often a problem; they frequently are not. Plus, it's not the ideology nearly so much as it is politeness (what the questioner wants to hear) and the pragmatic, personal -- can I benefit from this? The pragmatic aspect which applies to people all over the world, not just the ME and Muslims. Though, as I said, when haggling is a national sport (that's a compliment, not a knock), the folks in the ME and Asia have an edge on any westerner.

Basically, what I am saying is that large populations are not thinking that deeply about the poll you are doing...

That's universally true; my point was that the very important aspect of politeness (NOT a western attribute) and pragmatism (universal but well honed in societies which practice bargaining) can skew results. Taqqiya may or may not apply -- depends on the reason for and wording of the survey. I agree that generally it will not -- though in questions of governance and relations with the west it may.

Dayuhan said it better than I...

[Dayuhan]

Plus, it's not the ideology nearly so much as it is politeness (what the questioner wants to hear) and the pragmatic, personal -- can I benefit from this?

There's also a flip side to benefit... people will be considering whether there may be some risk to them in an honest answer. The safe way out is to say something bland and uncontroversial, get the interview over with, and resume watching your back.