How to be the Biggest Tribe

[Rank amateur]

Finally, the women got frustrated with the men and started telling us where the IEDs were emplaced, where the caches were hidden, and who the culprits were.

I've been meaning to discuss this exact issue in a thread about Afghan geography and COIN, but I don't see this working in Afghanistan. Too many miles of road, too few villages, too many bad guys coming across the border. Even if you get the locals onside, they won't know where the IEDs are and who is placing them.

blockaded all the roads in and out.

Seems to me "imprisoning" the population is the key to all successful COIN. Take away everyone's freedom and the insurgents lose freedom of movement. But fence in the entire population of Astan, and I still think you'll have lots of bad guys running around the mountains.

[MikeF]

I've been meaning to discuss this exact issue in a thread about Afghan geography and COIN, but I don't see this working in Afghanistan. Too many miles of road, too few villages, too many bad guys coming across the border. Even if you get the locals onside, they won't know where the IEDs are and who is placing them.

Seems to me "imprisoning" the population is the key to all successful COIN. Take away everyone's freedom and the insurgents lose freedom of movement. But fence in the entire population of Astan, and I still think you'll have lots of bad guys running around the mountains.

Good points. That's one thing that I've wondered about A'stan. How do you secure the populace and conduct COIN when the terrain (both human and geographic) is extremely harsh? I'm having lunch with a buddy of mine next week. His SF team owned Helmund Province in and out for two years. We continue to discuss the tactics of it we no clear-cut solutions.

v/r

Mike

[Rank amateur]

Good points. That's one thing that I've wondered about A'stan. How do you secure the populace and conduct COIN when the terrain (both human and geographic) is extremely harsh? I'm having lunch with a buddy of mine next week. His SF team owned Helmund Province in and out for two years. We continue to discuss the tactics of it we no clear-cut solutions.

v/r

Mike

I think you need a little McChrystal a little Biden. COIN in the cities, CT in the mountains. Unfortunately, that requires the maximum resources and there is no end game. You're doing CT as long as the T continue to come across the border. Also, you have that gray area, the little isolated mountain villages. Every one you don't occupy is a recruiting ground for the Taliban. You also have an intelligence problem. If you're not there, how do you know if AQ is in a particular village or not?

The one thing I think we could do with the mountain villages is burn the poppies near every village that cooperates with AQ, let the narco bucks flow into the ones that don't. Politically difficult, (in the US I mean) but I think it could work.

Basically, that's what we do with prostitutes here: selective enforcement. (If they move into residential neighborhoods, we arrest them. If they stay out of sight, the cops don't bother them.) Of course, even that strategy is difficult to execute because if you're not on the ground, you still have an intelligence problem.

[davidbfpo]

The one thing I think we could do with the mountain villages is burn the poppies near every village that cooperates with AQ, let the narco bucks flow into the ones that don't. Politically difficult, (in the US I mean) but I think it could work

Mountain villagers may grow poppies, but nothing like the scale of production in prime land - which is flat - in Helmand. Would burning the only cash crop (excluding timber etc) be that effective?

In this harsh situation I'd revert to announcing 24hrs beforehand you are going to strike (artillery or bomb) a specified location - a compound. That for this armchair observer eliminates the need to be on the ground to burn; yes I know other air-delivered methods exist.

davidbfpo

[MikeF]

Looks like the Marines are taking Rank Amateur's advice and getting after it.

Afghan, US forces seize 50 tonnes of opium, kill 17 Taliban: official

US and Afghan forces seized 50 tonnes of opium and 1.8 tonnes of heroin, and killed 17 Taliban insurgents in a joint operation in southern Afghanistan on Wednesday, the defence ministry said.

The drug haul, one of the biggest in recent memory, was worth five million dollars, Mohammad Zahir Azimi, ministry spokesman, told AFP.

In a five-hour operation that began at 11:00 am (0630 GMT), the soldiers dropped from helicopters into the Kajaki district of troubled Helmand province, source of most of the world's heroin, he said.

"According to our calculation, we have destroyed five million dollars' worth of drugs today," he said.

"We seized and destroyed 30 tonnes of fertiliser, 1,000 boxes of AK-47 and TK machinegun bullets and other weapons," he said, adding that a factory for making remote-controlled bombs was also destroyed.

"Seventeen Taliban were killed, three were arrested alive," he said.

"The joint forces also destroyed a heroin-making factory," he said, adding that the joint forces suffered no casualties.

He said the fertiliser was of a type used to manufacture improvised explosive devices (IEDs), the main weapon in the Taliban arsenal and causing a large proportion of deaths among forces under US and NATO command.

[davidbfpo]

Mike F,

This joint Afghan-USMC operation I note is well inside the UK sector of Helmand. Does this indicate the UK's airmobile infantry battallion there, the former Black Watch (now 3rd Batt., Royal Regiment of Scotland), is committed or more plausibly hasn't got the helicopter lift? Even if shared with the US and others - Google will help explain.

A Google satellite map: http://www.maplandia.com/afghanistan.../kajaki-sofla/

Secondly the press report also refers to:

16 boxes of C4 explosive made in Iran had also been seized in the operation.

Digging way the Black Watch struck the other day and seized 1.5 tons of cannabis: http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/home...ghanistan.html .Two weeks they did an airmobile operation, with three waves of six Chinooks: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6856366.ece

Finally the Black Watch are about to leave Afghanistan.

davidbfpo

[MikeF]

David asked,

What does this tell us?

Currently, probably not much. I would assume that they're trying different tactics to break through a perceived impervious terrain.

That's a good thing.

v/r

Mike