Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

Following a recommendation on Abu M, as written by the best sourced local reporter:

Hakimullah Mehsud of the TTP, according to Asia Times Online contacts, has apparently adopted a strategy that will not expend too many resources on protecting the Mehsud area. Instead, he aims to spread chaos by attacking security personnel in the cities.

The same contacts say that when thousands of people left South Waziristan last week under the military's directives, a majority of the militants melted away to the Shawal region, situated at the crossroads of South Waziristan, Afghanistan and North Waziristan, besides going to Pakistani cities.

A very limited force is entrenched in the Mehsud tribal area, and by all accounts it is putting up fierce resistance.

By marching into South Waziristan, the military has taken something of a gamble as it is highly unlikely to eliminate the militant threat. Indeed, the past seven or so years have shown that after any operation against militants, the militants have always gained from the situation. By the same token, the militants don't have the capacity to permanently control ground beyond their areas in South Waziristan and North Waziristan.

...there are signals that the Taliban in the Swat area in North-West Frontier Province are regrouping after being pushed back by the army this year. It is likely that by the time the snow chokes major supply routes, the Taliban will have seized all lost ground in the Swat Valley.

From: http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/10/19-10

From a Time article. The Pakistani Army CoS letter dropped in South Waziristan, an excerpt:

To the brave and honorable people of the Mehsud tribe. The operation is not meant to target the valiant and patriotic Mehsud tribes but aimed at ridding them of the elements who have destroyed peace in the region.

The article ends with:

Taking the battle to the militants in South Waziristan, says Lieut. General Ali Muhammad Jan Aurakzai, the former governor of Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province, "is a requirement, but not a solution — a first field dressing to a battle wound." The solution, as is usually the case in regions that breed insurgencies — and not just in Pakistan — is better governance. No sign of that yet.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...#ixzz0Vq6fufQr

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Omarali50 asked:

David, About the Pakistani army's current offensive, where do you think the taliban have gone? The army has claimed to have killed about 50 of them (the taliban have admitted less, and in this matter, their spokesmen have a history of being more reliable than the army) so where are the other 9950? If they have slipped away to other agencies, then this whack a mole strategy will soon be faced with new problems.

I expect that many of the fighters left before the attack, it was so well advertised and the Pakistani Army's options on the ground were limited. I have seen one report that they are in the area where the Afghan border abuts the two Waziristan and of course there is no "anvil" on the other side of the border. Unless of course there is a "flying anvil" waiting to act.

Do you think the army has decided to dump the good taliban? If not, what great difference will this offensive make to Afghanistan (or even to Pakistan, where the bad taliban frequently find refuge with their good cousins)? And if they have decided to dump the good taliban, what should we expect to see next?

No, the Pakistani Army have not dumped all the Taliban; that has not been their approach before, rather military action: negoitate, local deal, Taliban renege on deal, wait awhile and start again. I am beginning to suspect the Taliban have decided to dump the Army. For a variety of reasons the internal Taliban (a very broad coalition) have made the Pakistani state the main target. Next, well some sheer terror attacks e.g. Peshawar market (used by women), raids on state installations and "spectaculars" by LeT in particular.

I wonder what Stephen Tankel's thoughts are now? (LeT expert).

My answers are from an "armchair" faraway and based on some reading.

davidbfpo