Kyberwatch, Frontierpost and Other News of Interest
http://asinstitute.org/home.php?page=1
Issue #98 came out by direct e-mail today, 31 Jan 09.
Give it a few days and #98 will be on this website, too, which now only has the Jan. 09 issue.
Site based in Lahore, Pakistan with focus among other things on both Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also on Africa and other areas.
Again, may be of "broadening" interest as we will be dealing more heavily with, perhaps in Pakistan from now on.
University of Punjab instead of University of Lahore
My goof. The Institute referenced in previous posting by me is at the University of Punjab which is in Lahore, Pakistan. Apologies for my mistake.
Inside native Pukhtuns views on Waziristan terrorism
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5081
This blog post from Hujra Online (sub part of Khyberwatch.com) may be of interest as Waziristan in part is where extra Taliban fighters are now coming from into and out of Afghanistan.
See in particular post #54, dated 1-17-09, from/by Khan Baba.
Your feedback where possible would be of interest.
Last edited by George L. Singleton; 02-05-2009 at 02:11 AM.
Rather interesting
Most seems to support what one might expect to see and be consistent with some of the actions they took when first coming to power in Afghanistan. That said exactly what portion do you think is of greatest import considering your background in the region?Originally Posted by George L. Singleton
The fact that one particular subset which might have been thought of as a possible partner in Pak efforts to organize resistance (if I remember my readings correctly) is hard pressed to do so due to the circumstances under which power shifted, or the fact that seems like too many different factions exist for any one to be large enough to compete with the larger threat?
Or something else altogether?
Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours
Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur
Some more Pukhtun tribal problems background facts
Ron:
Your analysis is pretty much on target.
The pieces to this Pukhtun puzzle are as you noted are fragmented all over the place.
My simplistic analysis in discussing and watching this deterioration over there since 9/11:
1. Under former President Musharraf they did hit and run "fixes" in the troubled areas, FATA, Swat, Waziristan, Balochistan. Pak Army goes in, has a fire fight, razes homes of terrorists, then pulls back out.
2. Both under Musharraf and now under new elected President, husband of late Benazir Bhutto, jirgas and negotiations are forever on again, off again, to absolutely no lasting avail whatsoever.
3. Core struggle is over religion, pure and simple.
4. Pukhtun "belt" population as a whole have been among the poorest people in all of Pakistan, who factually or not in all alleged cases, have axes to grind with the central and regional governments (same cabal when it comes to governance). The "government" to them is mainly Punjabis who are also the majority of the successful business class throughout Pakistan, and nationwide the majority ethnic grouping in the total population.
5. In the Pak military there are a substantial number of Pukhtuns who find jobs there.
6. All Taliban being Pukhtuns, it is alleged, likely true, by commentators on their site (Hujra Online) that you now have "cousins fighting cousins", Pukhtuns in military of Paksitan up against Taliban Pukhtuns who in many instances are either blood kin or who grew up together as children, what we in the South here refer to as "near kin."
7. Attempts to use Frontier Corp troops instead of regular Pakistan Army troops to me, just my view, is a big part of the problem...as FC troops "are largely, not just some of them" Pukhtuns, and several times now in past two or so years I have felt the FC troops have both "changed sides" when it suited them to not kill each other (Pukhtuns) and to a lesser extent have mutinied and changed sides for good!
8. In Swat, where I have contacts both over there and back here in the States who go back and forth for family events, weddings and such, home visits, the Pak military only recently started to put troops into Swat for a more or less "longer" period of stay/posting, then turned around and made these troop placements into cantonments, ie, self contained "forts" and the troops then don't effectively go out, mix with the locals, and provide the security back up to the local police and to the people, who are openly still being attacked...in their own homes in a growing number of cases...especially those who speak out against terrorism and the Taliban are being attacked, as in murdered, in their own homes in front of other family members who "get the message" and cease resisting, in some cases, join the Taliban.
IDEAS FOR SOLUTION: Pakistan has to stop playing games to look for excuses to remove just placed major numbers of soldiers in these hot areas that in almost all cases now are in open revolt, where sectarian, ie, Pukhtun tribalism is mixed with terrorism, ie, Taliban, as anyone/everyone who hates the central and central appointed or allied/elected provincial goverment will and are now "reinforcing" each other against what I view as common sense "law and order" or the writ of law. At present, Pak Army has moved large elements to border with India using Mumbai terrorist attacks fiasco as an excuse to protect against a trumped up by the Pakistani ISI [excuse or allegation] of an imminent Indian military invasion. This whole damn "hate India" theme has been used since 1947 to keep Pakistanis from long term focusing on and getting lasting political fixes to internal domestic, economic, educational, etc, etc., problems.
The Taliban and al Qaida defacto have allies in the Pakistani Government, Army, and the ISI, as seen by most Pukhtun writers on Hujra Online, and I am starting to agree with them, as moving troops away from fighting terrorists to the stupid Indian border just lets the damned terrorists have the run of the ground in Swat, FATA, NWFP, Waziristan, and Balochistan ALL OVER AGAIN!
A MIDDLE GROUND of sane Pukhtuns do not totally reject the national/nationally backed provincial governments, and these are mainly YOUNGER Pukhtuns who have educations to even be on a website such as Hujra Online.
The hope, or failure of Northern Pakistan is largely with the high school and university age young men and women who are Pukhtuns. These in the main are who write on this site and who I communicate with as best I can.
MULTILINGUAL, not stupid, folks, these Pukhtuns. A typical educated or being educated today Pukhtun, is eduated in Urdu (the official language of the Pak Government is Urdu. Urdu is the identifying language of Punjabis, anethma to older Pukhtuns and to a growing number of younger Pukhtuns).
They then "chose" to save their culture via their language, which they also study and become fluent in, Pashtu.
To be effective in both the region and on a world level, focused on Pukhtuns overseas in Europe, Canada, and the US, they learn and are pretty good with English.
FINAL HISTORIC OBSERVATION: Some, but not all young Pukhtuns and very many older Pukhtuns in both Paksitan and Afghanistan (which is majority Pukhtun) go on and on about the DURAND LINE from early 1900s which is the official border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. When Durand Line comes up you are being told defacto that Pukhtuns want a united, to them reuinted, tribal nation made up of most of today's Afghanistan and large parts of Northern Pakistan. They exhibit no common sense about infrastructure, or lack there of, jobs, unresolvable poverty, lack of adequate schools...Taliban style Pukthuns of course are busy burning, blowing up, and killing teachers of girls schools all the time.
FAILING US efforts to dump billions of dollars worth of AID and development into Northern Pakistan. It is unsafe to go anywhere to build or do almost anything in N. Pakistan now without massive military protection, protection which the Pakistan military is NOT providing for foreigners, US, French, German, Chinese, you name one, to go out into the now boiling with terrorism and terrorists backward areas. Even loyal to central and provincial Pak government officials are as often as not murdered and unable to function outside of equivalent of well protected areas and cities..and even big cities ; the largest in North Pakistan is Peshawar, is infested with terrorists, bombings, murders, and fire fights of Taliban in groups with local police, Frontier Corp troops, regular Pak Army troops.
It is my crackpot theory that the worldwide recession, which overseas is already at depression proportions, is creating more suicide bombers and more and more of the poor over there have nothing to live for and religious terrorists are using their economic despair to "offer them Heaven on a bomb vest."
AFGHANISTAN as regards Pukhtun separatism is actually less of a problem than Pakistan as not only are the majority of Afghans Pukhtuns ethnically/tribally to begin with, but President Karzai himself is a Pukhtun.
Enough now from me, what say others of you or do you have questions, criticism, or want to narrow some of these shotgun blast statements from me? *Please overlook my many typos. Tks.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-05-2009 at 06:11 PM. Reason: Typo corrections
George, a couple of questions
1. Are the Pashtuns a monolith (as in the very basic map attached), or are they divided into distinct sub-groups geographically ?
2. If sub-groups, which (if any) are cross-border living in both Pstan and Astan ?
3. If sub-groups, which are Taliban-influenced ?
4. Is the Taliban a monolith, or does it have its own factions ("hard" to "soft" or some such qualitative measure).
The overall question is whether there are Pashtun sub-groups which the US could work with directly.
http://www.semp.us/images/Biot584PhotoG.bmp
This is a more detailed map of the overlapping mixes of ethnic groups in Northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, with Pukthuns clearly in the majority on both sides of this map.
Enlarge the map to see it better, maybe 11 different tribes, including Pukthuns, plus "others" catch all category.
Am doing more research to see if I can break down Pukhtuns into subtribes as you suggested.
http://pukhtunwomen.org/node/161
This PukhtunWomen website article uses 2007 US Army Manual info which does a very good job of breaking down into subtribes, etc. the Pukthuns in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtun_Tribes
I will try to find mapping which overlays these many, many tribes, subtribes, but finding such a map may take more than tonight's Internet scan.
Last edited by Jedburgh; 02-06-2009 at 12:45 PM.
George, thank you, for the start ...
and great links (especially the third); but this seems more of a life's work - very complex.from GLS
I will try to find mapping which overlays these many, many tribes, subtribes, but finding such a map may take more than tonight's Internet scan.
The general concepts in the Pashtun tribal structure are very familiar to me. This looks very much like the Gaelic Irish structure ca. 1100 - and to a lesser extent, the fused Gaelic Irish and Norman-Welsh structures that existed from ca. 1200 to 1600.
For example, the Pashtun kohols unit, explained here from the third of your links, based on gg-grandfather down, is much the same as the Gaelic Irish extended family structure under Brehon Law.
The Gaelic Irish structure was very much cross-linked (horizontally and vertically), but with a much smaller population. Suffice to say that the wrong step in one house could bring 100s of houses down on your head.
The Pashtun structure (as in the Irish based on genealogies, whether mythical or factual) has to be an order or two of magnitude more complex.
Perhaps, we should have a new MOS - genealogical officer in charge.
If we look on today's environment, you will find that it's very changed now.
Welcome
Roughnet,
Welcome aboard SWC and many members appreciate a little introduction, within OPSEC and anonymity - posted on this thread: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=1441&page=55
It is not compulsory, but new members credibility is influenced by the introduction.
Finally, George S. no longer contributes and it would help if you could enhance your opinion line, either citing articles or your own experiences.
davidbfpo
Young Pukhtuns identify new Taliban target areas
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...60492post60492
Some of SWJ readers and commentators might be interested in particiular in message #1 found in the above blog site.
They are guesstimating that the Pakistani ISI backed Taliban will set up shop to attempt what I preceive to be another SWAT style coup from the named three locations.
They are apparently moving a few steps at a time, which means we should be able to stop them IF the President of Pakistan can figure out how to get the Chief of the Pakistani Army to control the ISI and truely fight the terrorists. Otherwise, it is a frustrating war on terrorism when you ally is simultaneously among your enemies.
Lahore, Pakistan Alternate Solutions Institute
www.asinstitute.org/newsletter99
This comes out monthly to me from the Alternate Solutions Institute in Lahore, Paksitan. I think this think tank is on the campus of the University of Punjab.
May be of general readership interest.
Last edited by George L. Singleton; 02-28-2009 at 10:48 PM.
Terrorists murder 100, maime 100 + more
The Saturday, March 28 Peshawar FRONTIER POST carried a lead story of a terrorist suicide bomber blowing himself and up to 300 innocent Pukhtun Muslim Pakistanis up in a two story mosque on the edge of Peshawar this weekend.
The idiot local Pakistani/Pukhtun police official had this stupid remark to make about the murderer, which really makes me furious:
This is the sort to dishonest, lying, terrorist coddling I have seen over and over again from those Pukhtuns in government positions who will not condemn and damn those Pukhtuns who are Taliban terrorists. It clearly paints them a likely supporters of the terrorists themselves."He said that foreign hand could not be ruled out in this tragic incident because a Muslim could not dare to kill the worshippers inside the mosque."
Damned shame all around.
Taliban murder Lahore police academy cadets 3/30/09
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...4821#post64821
See posting #18 which is taken from a French news agency and posted on this Hujra Online site, and also see posting #8, which is the first one I saw earlier this morning on this website.
The Lahore National Policy Academy, which routinely has over 1,000 cadets enrolled at any one time of late, was attacked early this morning, Monday, March 30, per the Global Hujra Online comments contained in the above Internet reference. The number of Pak police cadets killed and wounded is not yet clear to me from these reports.
In part this posting says:
LAHORE: Security forces have secured one portion of Manawan Police Academy, Geo news reported on Monday.
According to Tv news correspondents who are inside premises of the Academy, commandos of elite force and army have captured the terrorists alive. After clearing the compound and arresting the terrorists, the commandos fired in jubilation and said “Allah Akber”.
According to sources, the operation has been successfully completed after eight hours of intense gun battle.
Current tense Taliban further Swat/NWFP/Islamabad continued invasion plans
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6466
This article dateline 4/20/09 from the blog site Global Hujra Online (a part of the KhyberWatch.com site) gives a chilling, blunt, and factual picture of how the Taliban terrorists have been setting up in norhtern Pakistan ever since the 1990s with the aide and assistance of the national government and even provincial governments of this troubled now lawless area of Pakistan.
The article moves to the conclusion that the Taliban are now organized in brigade strength and are soon, within a matter of weeks, to attempt an invasion of the City of Islamabad.
Over the weekend I noticed some commentary/letters to the editor of DAWN in Karachi suggesting that the Government of Pakistan withdraw to and again have the capital of Pakistan in Karachi, where it was when I was stationed at the old US Embassy in 1963-1965.
My summary comment: Religious civil war is happening inside Pakistan which even in SWAT and other Northern Pakistan areas the locals and their leaders, the tribal elders, are unable to stop even with force of their own arms. The Taliban are being equipped/supplied with heavy weaponry by the ISI and are capturing NATO destined heavy weaponry enroute to Afghanistan via Pakistan ground routes as well.
Expensive though it may be, airlifting weaponry and ammunition into Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, is an immediate necessity in my opinion.
Last edited by George L. Singleton; 04-20-2009 at 12:16 PM.
Washington Post today
Extremist Tide Rises in Pakistan
After Reaching Deal in North, Islamists Aim to Install Religious Law Nationwide
By Pamela Constable
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, April 20, 2009
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, April 19 -- A potentially troubling era dawned Sunday in Pakistan's Swat Valley, where a top Islamist militant leader, emboldened by a peace agreement with the federal government, laid out an ambitious plan to bring a "complete Islamic system" to the surrounding northwest region and the entire country.
Speaking to thousands of followers in an address aired live from Swat on national news channels, cleric Sufi Mohammed bluntly defied the constitution and federal judiciary, saying he would not allow any appeals to state courts under the system of sharia, or Islamic law, that will prevail there as a result of the peace accord signed by the president Tuesday.
"The Koran says that supporting an infidel system is a great sin," Mohammed said, referring to Pakistan's modern democratic institutions. He declared that in Swat, home to 1.5 million people, all "un-Islamic laws and customs will be abolished," and he suggested that the official imprimatur on the agreement would pave the way for sharia to be installed in other areas.
Mohammed's dramatic speech echoed a rousing sermon in Islamabad on Friday by another radical cleric, Maulana Abdul Aziz, who appeared at the Red Mosque in the capital after nearly two years in detention and urged several thousand chanting followers to launch a crusade for sharia nationwide. ....
Correction
The actual article my internet reference was linked to this morning has somehow "changed" so I am going to post parts of the article directly, but not the whole article, parts that describe how now they next Taliban step within a few weeks is to invade Islamabad.
George Singleton
Core of Taliban plan to soon invade Islamabad, 2009
As found 4/18/09
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/...ureaucracy--za
This story was copied/repeated 4/20/09 on Global Hujra Online website but the refernce to that site which I posted earlier today, 4/20/09 does not now connect to this original DAWN story as repeated in Hujra Online.
Taliban influence in bureaucracy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taliban influence in bureaucracy
By A. Ameer
Many who saw the 1994 uprising of Malakand Division bear testimony to the fact that the present commissioner of the division provided all-out help to the insurgents (Taliban) coming from Dir to Swat.
THE growing threat of violent extremism in different parts of Pakistan including Fata and Malakand Division is a matter of serious concern.
The harrowing factor is that the writ of the Taliban is solidifying both in the north and the south not only in the Pashtun belt but also in the heartland of Pakistan.
That a high-level provincial official posted in Swat should write a letter to the NWFP home department implying the complicity of the commissioner of Malakand Division in the ever-expanding influence of the Taliban in the region is an illustration of what is happening and how.
An alliance of extremist forces in Kashmir, Punjab, Fata and the NWFP and their strategy for Pakistan’s disintegration in the near future have virtually paralysed the administrations in the different settled districts of the NWFP — not to mention the threats made by extremists to invade Islamabad very soon.
After the February peace deal between the NWFP government and the banned Tehrik Nifaz-i-Shariat Mohammadi (TNSM), the Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) chapter of Swat started a three-pronged assault on the state.
Firstly, the Swat chapter of the TTP started recruitment and the construction of bunkers on a large scale in different parts of Swat while the military and security establishment and the government maintained control in different ways. The security establishment and the Pakistani government seem to be oblivious of the fact that the Taliban movement is far more agile than the security establishment’s response to their onslaught from different directions.
Secondly, the Swat chapter of the TTP, in line with the Taliban alliances in Fata and the rest of Pakistan, were readjusting and relocating therein and have started expanding their assaults from the north to the south of the NWFP. The present onslaught by the Taliban on Buner and Dir is part of this strategy.
Thirdly, the Taliban have started consolidating their positions vis-à-vis the security establishment by controlling strategic passes and side valleys of Swat, Buner, Shangla and Dir. In this scenario, reports that a part of the civil bureaucracy in the NWFP, Fata and elsewhere in Pakistan facilitates the process of Talibanisation is likely to be a worrisome factor for elements within and outside the country.
The present commissioner of Malakand Division is said to have been posted in lower Dir in the early 1990s when the TNSM was in the process of becoming a formidable extremist organisation with a jihadi ideology. The commissioner was said to have been a frequent visitor of Maulana Sufi Mohammad’s madressah and allegedly worked behind the scenes with the initial support of the local khans for the TNSM in 1994 when it brought the whole administration of Malakand Division to a standstill. Many who saw the 1994 uprising of Malakand Division bear testimony to the fact that the present commissioner of the latter provided all-out help to the insurgents coming from Dir to Swat.
In the early era of Fazlullah’s rise in Swat, again the present commissioner of Malakand Division was posted as the district coordination officer. He was the one, according to local residents, who facilitated the establishment of Fazlullah’s FM radio. He was the one who convinced the local jirga of Mamdherai and Mingora to allow the FM radio to function. It was reported in 2006-07 in the local press that when the Taliban in Swat started destroying CD shops and barber shops and the owners would go to the DCO office for complaints, the DCO would tell them to close the shops because, according to him, running the business was un-Islamic. The present commissioner was also seen by the locals visiting Mamdherai markaz (centre) for Friday prayers frequently.
On April 5, 2009 a battalion of the Taliban militia with heavy weaponry crossed over the hills from Swat to Buner to avowedly supervise the implementation of the Nizam-i-Adl. The local residents of Buner had been resisting the inflow of the Taliban for a long time. The local elders intervened and tried to convince the Taliban to return but the latter opened fire at them, leaving several injured. Later the Taliban captured three policemen and two civilians, and killed them.
The local residents, the people of lower Buner and Sultanwas, gathered to move upward to face the Taliban while the people of upper Buner provided reinforcements. Fighting began and in the ensuing gun-battle some 17 members of the Taliban are said to have been killed. The questions on the minds of the local people were: why would the Taliban come with heavy weapons if they did not want to control Buner? And why were the Taliban allowed by the commissioner to move from Swat to Buner with heavy weapons?
On April 6, a delegation of the TNSM along with the commissioner Malakand Division went to Buner to negotiate with the local elders. They tried to convince the local elders to allow the Taliban to enter the valley. While the delegation engaged the local administration and the elders of Buner, the Taliban started getting reinforcements. In the context of the Taliban expansion to Buner, it is interesting to note the ideological role played by the relatively less known Jamaati Ashaatutoheed WaSunna, the creation of Maulana Tahir Panjpiri, the father of the infamous Major Amir, a well-known IB and ISI operative in the past and allegedly behind the notorious Operation Midnight Jackal. Major Amir, Syed Mohammad Javed (the present commissioner Malakand Division) and Maulana Sufi Mohammad are said to have been quite close since a long time.
According to eyewitnesses, during the recent stand-off between the Taliban and the people of Buner, the commissioner of Malakand Division made efforts to convince the people to allow the Taliban to enter Buner. The commissioner is said to have become annoyed with the superintendent of police in Buner for informing the people about the impending onslaught by the Taliban on the former...
Other specifics omitted...The writer/author works with a research organization. SEE DAWN WEBSITE ABOVE FOR COMPLETE ARTICLE.
Sorry for the lousy website I referenced earlier today which does not now connect to this article for unknown reasons.
George Singleton
Last edited by George L. Singleton; 04-21-2009 at 01:08 AM.
Pakistani grassroots bloggers fear advancing Taliban
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6655
Please take time to read all the postings by various Pakhtuns on GLOBAL HUJRA ONLINE blog site as their statements are grim, estimating the whole Pakistan ball of was could collapse within 6 months.
I have noticed via media renewed helictoper and tactical aircraft attacks against advancing Taliban, but I keep getting private e-mails from those still there saying what is most needed now are Pakistani Army and Frontier Corp troops, on the ground, attacking and defeating directly the Taliban. This as we all know is not happening.
My two cents as a very old Pakistan hand (1963-1965) is that the idiots who are treating this whole collapse inside Pakistan as happened in 1938 in Munich with the Nazis is that the Pak military will try to stir up a new fight with India to distract everyone, and in the process get themselves stomped on by the Indian Army and then Pakistan will be wide open for Taliban/al Qaida completion of an internally violent take over.
BIGGEST cultural issue is unwillingness of Pakhtuns to fight the Taliban who are also ethnic Pakhtuns. Hidden in this dicotomy is the long standing, simmering interest of some but not all by any means Pakhtuns to revolt against both Pakistan and Afghanistan and form a new nation, Pakhtuwana, or some such title.
Pakhtuns nationalism is contributing to the problem and in my opinion is a 100% direct enabler of the advance of the Taliban.
Big damn mess.
agree: another 'Munich 1938’
I share George L. Singleton's impression that this situation seems to be ‘another Munich 1938’: somebody allowed ‘them’ to take Sudeten-Germany, and now they are invading Czechoslovakia … and what happens? Not too much, it seems. Though knowing quite a lot on Islam, something about Pakistan, something on Afghanistan, I don’t know what to do, i.e. where to start, except groaning silently behind my civilian desk.
Best regards,
Piranha
- no rank, no PhD
-- but neither incompetent nor ignorant on this kind of things.
Last edited by Piranha; 04-23-2009 at 12:58 PM.
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