The 'unthinkable' that the US will quit Middle East is unthinkable so to say
US economy is powered by Oil and even if the US can find other sources within the US, it will not use up its 'strategic reserve' and will depend on outside sources, mainly the Middle East.
If the US quits Afghanistan, then there is good reasons to believe that China and Russia will move in, maybe directly or through proxies. It is believed that there are large untapped deposits of mineral resources in Afghanistan. Russia will be interested since it will open an avenue to the Indian Ocean, through Iran, with which it has an ambivalent relationship and would do its utmost to keep China out. This is feasible since China supports Sunni Pakistan and there is the real threat of a Greater Balochistan, sponsored by Pakistan since such a movement will distract the Balochis and would curb their anti Pakistan activities.
India will not be abandoned by the US. The US interest in India is vast, given the market and the fact that it is the bulwark of US interest against China. India geographical shape wherein it juts in, into the Indian Ocean is ideal to keep the eastern and western flank of the Indian Ocean under check. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India is like a sentinel over the Malacca Straits as also a checkpoint to ingress into the Bay of Bengal, hence Chinese sea route interests in Myanmar. It is, however, a moot point as to how much India will bend to allow a free access to the US of her facilities, even though it will be a salutary check on Chinese interests in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and even Gwadar.
In the event the US quits South Asia, it will not abandon its covert activities in Pakistan. Pakistan, unfortunately, is on the boil. Subnationalism and sectarian activities, apart from the fundamentalists, are at work in Pakistan and this is dangerous for the polity and integrity of the nation. There is no telling if the US, assisted by other, will not give these activities a churn so as to 'immobilise' Pakistan.
China, on the other hand, will assist Pakistan to maintain status quo, enforce its writ in Balochistan, for obvious reasons, though it will not be too discomfited if the areas where the Islamic fundamentalists are kept on the boil, since it will ensure that these divisive interests do not manifest itself in East Turkmenistan.
It is obvious that such a scenario of instability in Pakistan will not keep the Govt or the Army calm. Given the fact that the US would have pulled out its troops and there would be no threat in the western half of Pakistan, it would use the fundamentalists as the 'strategic weapon' to not only heat up Kashmir through its proxies, but also undertake terrorist act within India to keep India on tenterhooks.
It would then be the ideal scenario for war between India and Pakistan, and given the delicate situation in Pakistan, could lead to a nuclear exchange.
Therefore, it would be to no one's interest that the US should leave the region, lock stock and barrel.
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