Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[goesh]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19577341/

"Shooting erupts at radical mosque in Pakistan
At least nine killed, including 2 police officers, soldier, officials say
~
The students later pelted two government buildings, including the Ministry of Environment, with rocks and set them ablaze, and torched a dozen cars in the ministry's lot.
~
The battle marked a major escalation in a six-month standoff at the Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, whose clerics have challenged the military-led government by mounting a vigilante anti-vice campaign in Islamabad.
~

Hundreds of police and paramilitary Rangers have taken up position near the mosque in recent days in what officials have said is an effort to contain their activities.
President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said last week that he was ready to raid the mosque, but warned that suicide bombers from a militant group linked to al-Qaida had slipped into the mosque and that the media would blame any bloodbath on the government. "

[SWJED]

6 July Washington Post - Pakistan Launches Operation Against Radicals in Mosque by Griff Witte.

Pakistani security forces launched a major operation Thursday against radical students holed up in an Islamabad mosque, seeking to end a months-long standoff that has turned bloody in recent days.

Fighting raged in the darkness and continued early Friday, with the pops and cracks of small-arms fire echoing through the silence of a residential neighborhood. Just after 3 a.m., there was a major explosion, followed by an intense round of shooting that lasted nearly half an hour.

The government had earlier been hoping to pressure the students to leave the mosque peacefully, but those negotiations appeared to have broken down.

It was not immediately clear how many people had been killed in the clash, but leaders of the pro-Taliban Red Mosque have said they are prepared to fight to the death. The government, meanwhile, vowed Thursday to settle for nothing less than surrender...

[goesh]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19627493/

"Pakistan official: Musharraf’s plane fired on
Intelligence officer contradicts government denials of attack"

Another piece reports explosions at the Red Mosque

[SWJED]

7 July NY Times - Musharraf’s Plane Fired Upon as Mosque Standoff Continues by Salmond Masood and Carlotta Gall.

A burst of gunfire went off as President Pervez Musharraf’s plane took off Friday morning from an airfield in the garrison town of Rawalpindi, near the capital, as the government’s siege of a militant mosque entered its fourth day.

Security officials said they recovered two antiaircraft guns and one submachine gun with a telescopic sight from the rooftop of a house barely a mile from the airport where the shooting had apparently taken place.

It was not immediately clear if there was a link between the shooting and the siege at the Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, complex in the heart of the capital, where the leader of the rebellion vowed to fight to the death...

7 July Washington Post - Fear Grows Of Hostage Situation at Red Mosque by Griff Witte.

Security forces ringing a besieged mosque pummeled Islamic radicals with gunfire on Friday, as concern grew that many of those still inside -- including children -- were being held against their will.

Although more than 1,200 people have fled the mosque since the siege began Tuesday, authorities estimated that several hundred remain within. Only a few dozen are suspected to be hard-core radicals; others appear to want to leave but have been prevented from doing so...

[Jedburgh]

Received via e-mail this morning:

Pakistani Special Forces launched a major operation against those holed up in Lal Mosque this morning at 0400 local using their most advanced military systems, including US Predator Drones and helicopters. Fierce fighting is reported inside the buildings within the compound. Military reports state that at least 40 security forces personnel and over 70 Lal Mosque students have been killed in the operation which is still ongoing. It was also reported that the operation is expected to be complete within a matter of hours.

Monday night the government revoked the relaxation of the curfew re-enforcing the curfew for an indefinite period in Sector G-6. G-6 has been completely sealed off by the security forces and all hospitals are reportedly under their control. The media have also been strictly forbidden to enter into the area.

The security situation in Islamabad remains extremely tense and a minimum presence observed in most all business centers. Roads leading to the city have been blocked by the military but routes leaving the city, including the main route to the airport remain open with stringent checking of vehicles at military checkpoints.

[George L. Singleton]

Reports are circulating as of Aug. 6 that Pakistan's chief Taliban Leader, Baitullah Mehsud, in Waziristan, was killed in a missile strike of about two days ago; (added to illustrate) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...d-is-dead.html

Separeately on Aug. 6 the elders of the Massud tribe visited the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, and met with the Deputy Speaker of the lower house and with some Pakistani national senators...one senator from Waziristan accompanied the visiting Massud tribe elders.

Amazingly, the Massud tribe is seeking a truce and cessation of attacks on them by the Pakistani military; this is the sort of clap trap "on again off again" attempts which only allows the Taliban to regroup and rearm.

I posted on SWJ yesterday, Aug. 5 an article supporting the fact that other Massud tribe folks have fled into Helmand Province in Southern Afghanistan, and three options for discussion of what these Massud folks could actually be up to. (Added original link: http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...7544#post77544)

Am wondering if others are unable or unwilling due to current events to discuss these current events topics?

[davidbfpo]

It will be interesting to see if confirmation comes for Baitullah Mehsud's death, although I am not confident it will; e.g. Rashid Rauf's death was never confirmed.

Secondly, how will Pakistanis regard the drone attack? Previously discussed on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=6801

I wonder how the Pakistani state / military are explaining this, after all he is primarily their enemy.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

The BBC citing local people is reporting his death: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8188859.stm Note Pakistanis are seeking confirmation on the ground, even DNA; plus a successor is being chosen.

There are five US media reports on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=8036

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Friday, August 7, 2009 -- 7:20 AM ET
-----

Taliban Leader in Pakistan Is Dead, His Aides Say

Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of Pakistan's fearsome Taliban
militia, was killed Wednesday in a C.I.A. missile strike, two
Taliban fighters said on Friday, adding that a meeting was
taking place to determine who among his top deputies would
replace him.

Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com?emc=na

[George L. Singleton]

I hope these GLOBAL HUJRA articles on the Khyberwatch inks help explain some of what is happening in Pakistan. I have included the biography of the leftist author of second article as it gives his background.

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7415

http://www.chowk.com/writers/2100

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7417

[davidbfpo]

So say militants in the FATA, according to the BBC report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8191105.stm

So we await a tape recording arriving and being broadcast. By denying his death the Pakistan Taliban have set themselves a dilemma; a reminder how communications now have impacted.

davidbfpo

[Bob's World]

Senior leaders tend to take themselves too seriously...and thereby ascribe the same self-importance to the leadership of their opponents.

Querry: How deep into the leadership chain at the Pentagon would you have to cut in order to have a negative effect on US military operations?
1 deep?
10?
100?
1000?

Query two:
As you are chopping away at the top of the pyramid with no measureable affect on performance of the organization; what affect are your actions having on the motivation of the organization and its populace base of support to continue the fight???


The real question isn't if he is dead or not; the real question is what is the relative effect of conducting such operations in the first place.

[davidbfpo]

Query two: As you are chopping away at the top of the pyramid with no measureable affect on performance of the organization; what affect are your actions having on the motivation of the organization and its populace base of support to continue the fight??? The real question isn't if he is dead or not; the real question is what is the relative effect of conducting such operations in the first place.

From a faraway armchair and mindful that less deaths are preferable, primarily because of the local Pashtun culture i.e. revenge and status, my answers are and not in priority:

1) As a symbol and dangerous leader his removal is justified. Primarily with it's local effect and on Pakistan. Symbolism aside little effect to the USA etc (IMHO the White House spokesman should have stayed silent).

2) Yes, new leadership will appear and have to adapt further their lifestyle.

3) From my knowledge of Kashmiri-Pakistanis here they prefer to stand on the sidelines and await a sign who is stronger. That is where the impact could / should be on the flow of support, recruitment and legitimacy.

4) The action extends the window of opportunity for Pakistan to act in the FATA; in some ways following the Imperial strategy - harsh punishment.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

Ironic that British Commonwealth status allows some of the actual terrorists more travel access from their native areas into UK and elsewhere worldwide in the Commonwealth, especially including Canada.

[William F. Owen]

Querry: How deep into the leadership chain at the Pentagon would you have to cut in order to have a negative effect on US military operations?
1 deep?
10?
100?
1000?

Perhaps a better comparison is how many of a deployed SF A-TEAM would you have to kill for them to loose their effectiveness.

Killing enemy leaders works. It may not be highly effective, but I cannot think of any good reason to pass up the opportunity. Also from an intelligence perspective identifying and tracking enemy leaderships, usually brings a host full of other goodies.

[jcustis]

Killing enemy leaders works. It may not be highly effective, but I cannot think of any good reason to pass up the opportunity.

By this statement Wilf, are you saying that going after leadership is always worth the squeeze, even if it turns out to not be highly effective?

At what point is a leader's death worth 1, 10, 100 civilian casualties? Not trying to apples and orange this issue, but this does go back to a potential collateral damage issue that I think always needs to be thought of.

[Bob's World]

Perhaps a better comparison is how many of a deployed SF A-TEAM would you have to kill for them to loose their effectiveness.

Killing enemy leaders works. It may not be highly effective, but I cannot think of any good reason to pass up the opportunity. Also from an intelligence perspective identifying and tracking enemy leaderships, usually brings a host full of other goodies.

The junior man of any ODA is quite capable of leading himself, and determining if he has the wherewithal to accomplish the mission or not.

But this is not the point I hoped to make. This focus on HVIs is more to the point that I am working through in my "Full-Spectrum Deterrence" and "Deterrence of Irregular Threats" work. Certainly there is a degree of "Prevent" when a key leader is taken out. There will be a short period of sorting out who steps up next for that one particular actor. But what provocative effect does this have elsewhere across a broad range of actors?

Now, I recognize this following fact cuts both ways: 50 years ago to take out such a guy in a COIN effort may well lead to temporary peace in his zone of influence. Today, word of this attack raced around the world in minutes. Some may well have been deterred by the news, for fear of suffering a similar fate. Many more were probably outraged and provoked by the news. What is the net gain or loss?? Hard to say. Generals like assessments, but there is no way to assess that. One man dead.

My strong suspicion is that such temporal, tactical gains produce far more strategic downside than upside on today's global "battlefield." Bragging about these hits to show how we are being effective is what is causing the strategic downside.

We need to just shut up, and be quiet professionals. Do the job and let those who choose to speculate speculate, but the ones we're really trying to influence know exactly what happened.

We are slipping into the same trap with unmanned aircraft and their missiles that we fell into with our bombers and guided munitions. Some news is best delivered in person. Short, violent raids with no post-op clamoring for glory will be less likely to produce the strategic downside, and probably be far more respected by those we target and thereby produce better results.

[George L. Singleton]

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/...n+fight--bi-08

Today, Saturday, August 8, both Hakeemullah Mehsud the younger brother of just killed two days ago Pakistan Taliban leader Batulah Mehsud and Hakeemullah's chief rival to replace Batulah Mehsud, Walur Rehman from another clan of the total Mehsud conglomeration of clans were killed in a hot argument and shoot out during a secret (now public, obviously) shura in Sara Rogha in S. Waziristan.

This leaves for the moment 50-year-old Azmatullah Mehsud as the next most likely Taliban to become leader of all Taliban in Pakistan...but Mullah Ohmar's grizzly gang could and may interfere now to place or pick another new leader of the Taliban for and in Pakistan.

See above DAWN Sunday Aug. 9 story for details. I suggest you believe the fact that all these guys are now dead in such a short period of time. The Mehsud clan allegedly does not support the use of suicide bombers, purportedly believing the use of suicide bombers is heretical to Islam.

[George L. Singleton]

For anyone reading this on SWJ, in posts on the deaths of these three murdering thugs, Islamist Taliban, I identified the two now dead Meshuds as brothers, and the third dead Taliban leader, Rehman, as their cousin.

In fact all three are of the Meshud tribe but may or may not be the type of kinship I presumed from reading a Pakistan NEWS initial bulletin(s) on them during the weekend.

Will be glad to be openly corrected by anyone who can factually correct my statements of kinship, which solely comes from reading the English daily Pakistan NEWS stories about them.

Thanks,
George Singleton

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/...-turkistan-089

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=23778

Hakeemullah and Wali both dead: Turkistan

Monday, 10 Aug, 2009 | 07:25 AM PST ISLAMABAD: Baitullah Mehsud had been killed along with 40 militants in a drone strike last week and was buried in his house, says a commander of the rival group.

Haji Turkistan Bhittani, a commander of the Abdullah Mehsud group, told various TV channels on Sunday that Qari Hussain, mastermind of several suicide attacks, was seriously injured in the attack.

He said that Mufti Waliur Rehman and Hakeemullah Mehsud, the two leading contenders for the top slot, were also killed along with several aides when fighting erupted at a shura meeting held to choose new chief of the Taliban.—APP

[davidbfpo]

A very comprehensive review of how we got here and what might be next, Hat tip to Abu Muqawama: http://www.slate.com/id/2224668/

Now the hard part begins. Since the CIA has demonstrated its ability to pinpoint "high-level targets," it will want to go after other top Taliban leaders in Pakistan, such as Maulvi Nazir in South Waziristan and Jalaluddin Haqqani in North Waziristan. But Pakistan's military and security establishment perceives both men, who focus their fighting in Afghanistan and not in Pakistan, as national security assets more than threats. And there's no magic drone strike to fix that.

davidbfpo