Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

From a "lurker" familiar with Pakistan.

The new Prime Minister, Imran Khan, is discovering that militancy on a variety of issues can no longer be "turned off" by their leaders at the behest or direction of the nation-state (or ISI). This is particularly so in the urban areas of the Punjab and can involve large numbers on the streets. Social media has a role of course.

[davidbfpo]

A short article from Dawn, a Pakistani newspaper, which is almost a comedy. It starts with:

CALL it the Afghanisation of politics. You can guess what they don’t want, but you can’t really be certain about what they do want. And maybe it makes a kind of sense: you can’t ever be defeated if you never say what it is that you really want.

Link:https://www.dawn.com/news/1450345

I am not sure who 'they' are; the politicians, ISI and the Army?

[davidbfpo]

Via Twitter by @Roohan2Amhed:

Four commanders of the outlawed Balochistan Liberation Army, including one of group's founding members Aslam Achu, have been killed in a suicide attack in Kandahar province of Afghanistan. The group has confirmed their deaths

Really a 'suicide bombing'? No, I suspect the "hidden hand" is over the border.

[davidbfpo]

First some context from an interview of Raffaello Pantucci, of RUSI, a SME on China:

In this scenario, how do you look at the insurgent attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi (in November 2018) for which Pakistan blamed India?That incident did not surprise me in the least. If you track recent incidents in Pakistan, there have been more and more direct attacks on Chinese interests in Pakistan by militant groups. We recently had an incident where a bomber of the BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army) targeted a busload of Chinese engineers. The BLA has been very clear that they are targeting Chinese interests in the country. The accusations against India have a long history. The thing that worries me is that while it is impossible to say whether there is any merit to these accusations, what is certainly true is that there is a lot of anger in Balochistan, which has been there for a long time. What they have now realised is that attacking the Pakistani state hasn’t really delivered any results. They have realised that if we attack the foreigners we will get more attention internationally, and we are attacking the Pakistani state’s biggest ally; and that in itself might deliver some results for us. It is erroneous to blame this on India or Afghanistan, and it is impossible to know for sure if there are any elements from these countries lurking in the background, but what we can say for certain is that there is real anger in Balochistan, and it has now decided that targeting the Chinese gets some sort of a reaction.

Link:

From a 'Dawn' report:

Aslam Baloch alias Achhu, a key leader of the banned Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the mastermind of the recent attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi, has been killed along with five other leaders of the organisation in a suicide attack in Kandahar, Afghanistan.

Link:https://www.dawn.com/news/1453853

In a MENA online new site their report cites Malik Siraj Akbar, a Baloch journalist in Washington:

In the 1970s and ’80s, Pakistan used the Afghan mujahideen to harass and chase the Balochs, but this time it seems Pakistan hunted him down with the help of its Taliban proxies.

Link:https://www.thenational.ae/world/asi...istan-1.806996

Just how all the reports refer to a suicide bomber being responsible eludes me. How do they know? Who issued that story? I am no bomb expert, but the damage to the building is extensive - from the photo in the 'Dawn' report. Plus it looks like the building had concrete blocks around it to hinder VBIED. Why would the Taliban do this, presumably to assist their close friends ISI?

[davidbfpo]

An interesting article on the violent insurgency in Balochistan and from a critical Indian news website:

The important lesson drawn from the BLA’s recent botched moves is that armed action can achieve very little if it is not part of a coherent, well-crafted political strategy. Key to the Baloch strategy is inflicting pain on Beijing’s dramatic push into Balochistan......The only winner has been the Pakistan army.....In Balochistan, there have been too many players in the game: the State, the tribal leaders, the ‘enforcers’ employed by intelligence services, the armed forces and the Chinese.

Link:https://www.firstpost.com/world/balo...y-5963791.html

[davidbfpo]

A short, revealing article on policing Karachi by Zoha Waseem, ex-Kings War Studies. There have been improvements generally:

..since 2013, the homicide rate has been dropping in Karachi (from 2,507 deaths in 2013 to 301 in 2018).....vengeance through police encounters is personal – between 2011 and 2018, at least 637 police officials have been killed in Karachi.

(She concludes) For now, the public mood remains fickle, and it is too soon to tell whether this method of policing Karachi will return in the event that the city witnesses an increase in crime rates. Likewise, it is also too early to suggest that public opinion against police encounters will remain unchanged should violence spike again.

Link:https://shoc.rusi.org/informer/encou...licing-karachi

[davidbfpo]

Hamid Hussain, our occasional contributor, has recirculated a 2009 commentary, which offers two viewpoints as he explains:

Following is a piece by a former mid-level intelligence official of Pakistan army with first-hand information about handling the issues discussed in the piece. My comments are in red and italics. The problem is complex and there are no easy answers or quick solutions. I do not claim to be privy to any special information or have any solution. My perspective is based on my interaction with ordinary Pakistanis & Afghans especially Pushtuns and many Pakistan army officers and limited only to military aspect. Military aspect is only 20 percent but an important one and the rest 80 percent is social. This is just part of an ongoing dialogue because these events pose a serious threat to Pakistan’s interests and specifically the future of Pushtuns.

See the attachment, it is six pages.