Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[ODB]

From the AP:

The Taliban activity in northwest Pakistan also comes as the country shifts forces east to the Indian border because of tensions over last month's terrorist attacks in Mumbai, potentially giving insurgents more space to maneuver along the Afghan frontier.

Militants began preying on Swat's lush mountain ranges about two years ago, and it is now too dangerous for foreign and Pakistani journalists to visit. Interviews with residents, lawmakers and officials who have fled the region paint a dire picture.

A suicide blast killed 40 people Sunday at a polling station in Buner, an area bordering Swat that had been relatively peaceful. The attack underscored fears that even so-called "settled" regions presumptively under government control are increasingly unsafe.

The 3,500-square-mile Swat Valley lies less than 100 miles from the capital, Islamabad

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...7LLJgD95COON80

[Rob Thornton]

Bad news indeed. It makes you wonder if someone in the planning loop of the Mumbai attacks might have considered the potential of increasing Pakistani/Indian tensions and the resulting redistribution of Pakistani forces.

Whether deliberate, or lucky on the part of the enemy - the sooner that tension is eased some the better for us, the Afghanistan government, the Pakistanis, and the Indians.

From another perspective, it seems to show the enemy does not have to coordinate (at least in the way we think of it) its actions to have an effect or to take advantage of new conditions as a result of that effect.

Best, Rob

[ODB]

Sorry was on my way out the door this morning when I came across that little nugget of news. I had a few immediate thoughts: The first was the same Rob mentioned; how much of the Mumbai attacks was geared towards getting this reaction out of Pakistan? Was it planned accordingly with the time of year, winter is a slow time in Afghanistan, therefore enabling them to broaden their power base in Pakistan? Or was it simply coincidence? Secondly is now with a larger land base how much can the Taliban recruit, train, equip? Are they again moving to a larger scale military force to be reckoned with inside Pakistan to eventually cross over in strength into Afghanistan? The problems that arrise when an insurgency grows to military might. Thirdly how does this affect our policy on going into Pakistan? NATOs policies in Afghanistan? Pakistans ability to squash it when things with India calm back down? Just a few of the immediate thoughts and I'm sure there are a miliion others out there. Talk about on effect based operations, maybe we should take note if this was planned!

[davidbfpo]

On the BBC website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7868875.stm

Not exactly good news and note the headline, odd.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

There is growing anti Taliban and al Qaida sentiment evident over recent months and days on the above blog/website. These writers, some high school and college studens in UK, are helping plan a major demonstration against slaughers going on in Northern Pakistan currently, particularly inside Swat.

Thought this snippet might be of interest to you all.
George Singleton


http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...9199#post59199
Posted by: aimal khan
On: Today 03:22 PM

I am not against Islam as a religion( faith+worship+morality) and spiritual institution but I am totally against the extremist Islam in any shape like Salafis, Ahle hadith, Wahabis, Taliban, Panjpeeris, Ishate tawheed wa Sunna , and some extremist Deobandis. They are one of the most important causes of terrorism in today´s world. Politics of USA are power politics and they desrve it. Muslims used to do the same when they were in power rather worse than USA today as USA is not directly conquering the lands inspite of the necessary resources they have.Muslims started from MAKKAH and MADINA and conquered almost the whole known world to them at that time. Although that time they were not terrorists. they were fighting against their enemies according to all the established rules of war. Todays extremist muslims dont have power and try to fight against their enemies by the tool of terrorism whis is absurd, cruel, unjust and stupid.


All the best,
Global Hujra: A Pakhtun Cyber Land

[George L. Singleton]

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...59769post59769

Note message # 690 regarding Swat.

[SWJED]

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...59769post59769

Note message # 690 regarding Swat.

George, God love ya, please -and in concise and relevant terms - provide the "why" Council members should blindly follow the links you provide, here and on other threads. Council members deserve at least that much - right? - Dave

[Schmedlap]

I second, with a recommendation.

George seems to have an interest in, special knowledge of, and generally to be well read on to, this locale and, particularly, the open source goings-on. Perhaps an ongoing "George's take on the Pakistani region" thread would be a good place to consolidate these occasional snippets. George's insights are interesting and I suspect that he has more knowledge of the region than many of us and probably has a different perspective. It would be a shame for his observations to go unread simply due to how they are presented.

[George L. Singleton]

SWJED:

I have introed these websites/blogs in some detail in recent days/weeks, and have received several in the open as well as indiviudal e-mails exploring them further.

As the war on terrorism, my view, has since 9/11 been centered in the Pukhtun belt, ie, both Northern Pakistan and most all of Afghanistan, I thought this as well as the past history of Muslim press articles I have posted on SWJ from both the Peshawar FRONTIER POST and Karach DAWN helped explain this.

Of course, if you have another view and different interests, that is good, but some on here, beside me, are also interested in knowing about the core hot fighting areas which impact our future success, or failure, in relation to our alliance with Pakistan and the new government of Afghanistan, both of which are spinning like a top in relation to Pukhtun terrorist actions these articles address.

Hope this explanation helps, and again, others have shown both on line and individual e-mail interest in same.

I have tried to post these blog and related entries in areas of general as well as Afghanistan interest, and am always subject to having these posts moved to correct topical section, which does happen, which is great by me.

Yes, I, too, am a red headed Irishman myself.

Cheers.

[davidbfpo]

On the BBC earlier: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7891410.stm

From this faraway observation point this looks like the "stop and go" policy stance seen so often under President Musharraf and Pakistani Army rule. Except this time the agreement is between the Taliban and the NWFP provincial government.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

Hell, the AP is reading and plagerizing my quotes the bunch of cowards, most of whom write from over here about over there to begin with. They use native stringers in country who themsleves have often moved to Australian and write from there after "telephone" chats with the old boys back in the NWFP.

Here is a clip of Peshawar circa 1968 for those interested in same. I was in and out of Peshawar from 1963-1965, so this later date, 1968 clip is from a friend's cousin who served at my U-2 Base in Badabar after I had rotated stateside.

The US lost the lease (Operation Sandbag) for our intel and U-2 base at Peshawar/Badabar as of the start of 1969, when Pakistan swung into the Communist China economic and military alliance column.

http://www.vbs.tv/full_screen.php?s=...5DC&sc=1363196

http://www.pakdef.info/forum/archive...hp/t-3560.html

http://www.coldwar.org/text_files/Co...mesNov2008.pdf

http://www.6937th.50megs.com/

Enough already, right?

[George L. Singleton]

US special envoy says Swat a real threat for all of us

NEW DELHI (Reuters): An Islamist militancy in Pakistan's Swat region is a common threat to the United States, India and Pakistan, a special US envoy said on Monday, after meeting with India's foreign minister and top security officials. Seeking a greater role for India in stabilizing the region, Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, said he discussed details of his visit last week to the two countries and shared his concerns about security. "For the first time in 60 years since independence your country and Pakistan, the US, all face an enemy that poses a direct threat to our leadership, our capitals and our people," Holbrooke told reporters in New Delhi.

As found now at: http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News....at=ts&nid=4073

The above lead front page story in the Peshawar Monday, Feb. 16, 2009 FRONTIER POST is worth the 30 seconds or less to read it. I have not been exaggerating how bad the Swat surrender by Pakistan is...it will be used now as a safe have (not on a common border with Afghanistan) to martial, train, and send terrorists into both Afghanistan and Kashmir/India side.

Grim continuing story of pro-Taliban flag ranks who run the Pak military and I repeat are undermining the President of Pakistan in the process, which means killing democracy and paving the way yet again for another military coup before the end of 2009 in Pakistan.

[davidbfpo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/17/wo..._r=1&th&emc=th

Once in a while even the NEW YORK TIMES gets it's facts straught.

The future of Swat the NYT suggests is a consolidated base for both the Taliban and al Qaida.

I agree with the TIMES in this article where they basically assess "excuses" being made by the Pak government as a pack of lies.

Moved here by davidbfpo and originally by George S.

[Bob's World]

This is complicated, so the one caution that I would throw out to all is to neither assess this as a "loss" for the Government of Pakistan, nor as a "victory" for the Taliban. Both of those entities are made up of segments of the populace of Pakistan, which so far as been the big loser in this competition for their support.

I think the last two paragraphs are the most telling:

“The hardest task for the government will be to protect the Punjab against inroads by militants,” wrote I. A. Rehman, a member of the Human Rights Commission, in the daily newspaper, Dawn.

“Already, religious extremists have strong bases across the province and sympathizers in all arenas: political parties, services, the judiciary, the middle class, and even the media,” he wrote. “For its part, the government is handicapped because of its failure to offer good governance, guarantee livelihoods, and restore people’s faith in the frayed judicial system.”


The fact is, that there is only insurgency in Pakistan of this strength due to the enduring failure of the government of Pakistan to provide good governance (how the governance is perceived by the populace, not how effective it is assessed to be by itself or outsiders). I also contend that a government can not appease its own populace, that appeasement is when one makes concessions to an outside government at the expense of their own populace.

The real issue is how the Pakis follow up. This should provide some "maneuver space" with the populace that may well allow the government to extend greater security and services into the region. The fact that it is clearly counter to what the U.S. Government would want them to do also lends this move greater credibility with the target populace.

The cries of "Taliban sanctuary" are largely ignorant extremism; because the U.S. has make it very clear that we do not feel constrained in the slightest to conduct strike operations against Taliban and AQ targets in Pakistan. This deal does nothing to change that U.S. perspective.

The U.S. needs to support the Government of Pakistan in this move; helping to ensure that they make the most of the potential opportunities, and not allow this to in fact turn into the bad deal the naysayers are proclaiming it to be from inception.

Personally, and professionally, I am optimistic.

[Piranha]

Reading:

Pakistan Makes a Taliban Truce, Creating a Haven

The government announced Monday that it would accept a system of Islamic law in the Swat valley and agreed to a truce, effectively conceding the area as a Taliban sanctuary and suspending a faltering effort by the army to crush the insurgents.
The concessions to the militants, who now control about 70 percent of the region just 100 miles from the capital, were criticized by Pakistani analysts as a capitulation by a government desperate to stop Taliban abuses and a military embarrassed at losing ground after more than a year of intermittent fighting. About 3,000 Taliban militants have kept 12,000 government troops at bay and terrorized the local population with floggings and the burning of schools.
The accord came less than a week before the first official visit to Washington of the Pakistani army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, to meet Obama administration officials and discuss how Pakistan could improve its tactics against what the American military is now calling an industrial-strength insurgency there of Al Qaeda and the Taliban militants.

Jane Perlez, New York Times

I really get nightmares about what this will mean, let's say to the women in this area.
Perhaps I'm taking this too personally, and should all this 'be looked upon in another way'. I really do want to look at this kind of news in a more reasonable way, so here's an open invitation to share your responses ...

[George L. Singleton]

Greetings and will attempt to offer one old trooper's views to answer some of your open ended question(s):

1. Recent successful drone attacks in other Northern Pakistan provinces and areas have been working and the Taliban wanted a safe have that does not have a common border with Afghanistan. SWAT meets their needs now and they have just managed to combine murder, threat of murder, suicide bombings, and having too many friends in high places in the Pakistani ISI (read that as Intelligence Service) and the upper ranks of the Pakistan Army..who have long been pro-Taliban and pro-al Qaida.

2. Your fears are well founded as this largely pits the Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army against both the new President and new Prime Minister of Pakistan.

3. Now both the Taliban and al Qaida, for the moment at least, feel they are in a safer site, area is about the size of the US State of Delaware, have driven killed and/or driven out about 1/3 of the native Pukhtuns...the invading Taliban are of other subtribes and not native to Swat, and are deeply feared and resented by the differing Pukhtun subtrives inside and native to SWAT.

4. This in league with the terrorists action by the Pak government and Army, largely the Army is pulling these strings of surrender, invites more such capitulations and surrenders to the core of all this religious terrorism, Sharia Law, in other Northern parts of Pakistan.

5. Especially upsetting to me, since I served in the Peshawar and Karachi areas many years ago in our military, is that the capital of all of Pakistan, Islamabad, is not that many miles S-SW of SWAT and is full of radical madrassas itself, in fact, the Red Madrassah had a week long fire fight between the Pak Army and the Taliban teachers and students there in Islamabad about a year ago...which then President Musharraf put his career as President on the line to try to root them out...via the weeklong gunfight.

Your fears are well founded.

ASIDE: My wife and I met some very fine Dutch Special Forces while everyone was touring the Amiercan Cemetery at Normandy, France, summer, 2006. These Dutch were your special forces headed from that military leave weekend straight into Afghanistan. I and we over here appreciate our alliance and long term friendship with the government and all the people of Holland. Thank you to you and to all your countrymen. Colonel George L. Singleton, USAF, Ret.

[J Wolfsberger]

Perhaps because I listen to Radio Netherlands over WRN, I've long been aware of the heroic efforts of the Dutch in Afghanistan. I'm deeply embarrassed at the disparagement of their efforts (as well as the efforts of Canada and Australia) in certain segments of US society. Very few people in the US are aware that, proportionate to the population, the Dutch have suffered as significant a number of casualties as we have.

[Bob's World]

We're getting several threads all going on this same topic, so I will just repost here an alternative viewpoint:

This is complicated, so the one caution that I would throw out to all is to neither assess this as a "loss" for the Government of Pakistan, nor as a "victory" for the Taliban. Both of those entities are made up of segments of the populace of Pakistan, which so far as been the big loser in this competition for their support.

I think the last two paragraphs are the most telling:

“The hardest task for the government will be to protect the Punjab against inroads by militants,” wrote I. A. Rehman, a member of the Human Rights Commission, in the daily newspaper, Dawn.

“Already, religious extremists have strong bases across the province and sympathizers in all arenas: political parties, services, the judiciary, the middle class, and even the media,” he wrote. “For its part, the government is handicapped because of its failure to offer good governance, guarantee livelihoods, and restore people’s faith in the frayed judicial system.”


The fact is, that there is only insurgency in Pakistan of this strength due to the enduring failure of the government of Pakistan to provide good governance (how the governance is perceived by the populace, not how effective it is assessed to be by itself or outsiders). I also contend that a government can not appease its own populace, that appeasement is when one makes concessions to an outside government at the expense of their own populace.

The real issue is how the Pakis follow up. This should provide some "maneuver space" with the populace that may well allow the government to extend greater security and services into the region. The fact that it is clearly counter to what the U.S. Government would want them to do also lends this move greater credibility with the target populace.

The cries of "Taliban sanctuary" are largely ignorant extremism; because the U.S. has make it very clear that we do not feel constrained in the slightest to conduct strike operations against Taliban and AQ targets in Pakistan. This deal does nothing to change that U.S. perspective.

The U.S. needs to support the Government of Pakistan in this move; helping to ensure that they make the most of the potential opportunities, and not allow this to in fact turn into the bad deal the naysayers are proclaiming it to be from inception.

Personally, and professionally, I am optimistic.
__________________

[George L. Singleton]

Thanks for your input Bob, which I read earlier vs. a posting of mine which DAVIDBFOP "kidnapped" in the wee hours our time, mid-moring London time, today.

My posting, which is fine, is now under David's banner but he gives me credit in the last line of my last paragraph.

David, I hope you appreciate my wry Irish sense of humor. My other ancient clans are English and Welch, so I am only half Irish, but that is enough to make me dangerous you know!

Bob, you may want to review my around 50 published letters in the Karachi DAWN through end of 2008 to see in part where I am coming from regarding Pakistan.

We do disagree as this surrender of SWAT at this time is based on my tracking of this mess ever since 9/11 a huge turning point for the worse. My opinion, but the indiginous folks over there telling me this right and left without me asking what they think. It is in letters daily in the Peshawar FRONTIER POST, which I treat as more relevant to NWFP topics vs. the DAWN, which is more of a Punjabi based English press, FP being Pukhtun family owned and managed. Etc.

Grim news to me and to those over there.

I have numerous e-mails dating back the past 18 months from those inside SWAT begging for US/UN ground forces intervention, which of course I don't favor but where else logically could these oppressed Pukhtuns think to turn, as their doubts of the Pak Army again and again are correct! The Pakistani top Army flag ranks sell out the locals/Pukhtuns over and over.

Does anyone remember the last throws of Musharraf's Presidencey? Treaty or treaties of peace with the Taliban which the Taliban broke within two weeks.

Does anyone remember early actions of the new President and Prime Minister of Pakistan? Treaties again in the frontier areas of Pakistan on the Afghan border which the Taliban again broke within weeks.

To those over there, their views to me, which repeat in summary here, these so called jiirgas and treaties are gifts of time to resupply, reform, and attack across the border into Afghanistan and to continue internal within N. Pakistan attacks against native Pukhtuns there.

This is not what I want to say, it is what thePukhtun and other tribes which are not Puktuns but minority locals are saying to me, over and over, in pretty gorry stories.

[George L. Singleton]

Slain Pak TV reporter had 32 bullet wounds


Thursday, 19 February , 2009, 12:19

Islamabad: Thirty two bullets were pumped into TV reporter Musa Khan Khel in Pakistan's Swat Valley two days after Islamabad allowed the Taliban to impose Shariat (Islamic law) in the area, said Geo News executive editor Hamid Mir, adding a lot of radicals were unhappy with his coverage but "truth has to be reported".

Complete story ate below Internet site of murder of Pakistani local news reporter at site of so-called "Peace March" in Swat yesterday. Some way the Taliban observe "peace" there.

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/