Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[SWJED]

Moderator's Note: An old thread 'Waziristan: campaigning in the past and soon?' has been merged into this thread.


Strategic Design Considerations for Operations in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Dust-up along the North-West Frontier by William McCallister at SWJ Blog.

Ideas as to what constitutes good governance various among individuals, groups and cultures. The current definition of good governance as outlined in a recent report on threats from safe havens and ungoverned areas is a case in point. The report defines governance as the “delivery of security, judicial, legal, regulatory, intelligence, economic, administration, social and political goods and public services, and the institutions through which they are delivered”. The definition implies a social service centric function for government emphasizing “delivery” and distribution of social services. It further implies that only democratic institutions are a safeguard against militancy, extremism and terrorism. Not all cultures view the role and function of government in quite the same way. Tribal society, particularly along the North-West frontier between Pakistan and Afghanistan judges the role and function of effective government quite differently...

[Ray]

An excellent read.

The SWJ "Strategic Design Considerations for Operations in Pakistan’s Tribal Areasust-up along the North-West Frontier" by William S. McCallister is one of the finest articles that has covered the psyche that governs the lawless badlands of western part of Pakistan.

Indeed, Pakistan is a curious mix of tribalism, feudalism, modernity, military supremacy and an attempt at democracy. It is an interesting pot pourri that does not mix and exude a pleasant aroma.

Pakistan is a country that has a serious identity crisis. It rejects its Indian past and is struggles to conjure an exclusiveness of being a historical separate indentity called the Indus Valley civilisation. This in fact encourages a further schism wherein the Mohajirs (immigrants from India due to the Partition) are forgotten and slighted! Interestingly, this search for a new identity ignores the fact that a large part of the Moslem population of pre Independent India were low caste convertees (to be free of the horrid caste system) or those who were converted to avoid the subjugation through the jezia (unbearable tax on non Moslem) or because of the Sword!

Thus, Pakistan is actually at war with itself and seized with a national schizophrenia, in a manner of speaking!

Jinnah, the Founder of Pakistan, was initially with the Congress Party and was not really concerned about the Moslem cause. But like all politicians when he realised that he could not wrest power from Gandhi and others, he took up the cause of Moslem's and for a separate homeland for the Moslems. It was merely a power quest that worked itself into a powerful political movement that brought about the birth of Pakistan. It was but a fait accompli without a solid foundation in reality of existence.

It is important to note what Jinnah had said in the inaugural address of the Pakistan Parliament. He had said:

We should begin to work in that spirit and in course of time all these angularities of the majority and minority communities, the Hindu community and the Muslim community, because even as regards Muslims you have Pathans, Punjabis, Shias, Sunnis and so on, and among the Hindus you have Brahmins, Vashnavas, Khatris, also Bengalis, Madrasis and so on, will vanish......

Now I think we should keep that in front of us as our ideal and you will find that in course of time Hindus would cease to be Hindus and Muslims would cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense, because that is the personal faith of each individual, but in the political sense as citizens of the State.

This indicates that Jinnah's main aim was for power and not for Islam!

The birth of Pakistan though rejoiced by the Moslems of India, actually put into place a power struggle amongst the various segments. The Mohajirs being more educated than those who were from the parts that became Pakistan took all the plum posts in the bureaucracy, judiciary, education etc. The actually population of what became West Pakistan, steeped in feudalism and power as the land owning "aristocracy" and the backbone of the Indian Army felt threatened. This is the genesis of the struggle in Pakistan between the military and democracy.

The Mohajirs , who were rootless but intelligent, realised that there had to be a common cause wherein their legitimacy as inheritors of the promised land was not up for the grabs, used Islam as the catch all for all eventualities. Given that Pakistan was created for Moslems, the military and the landed satraps could not contest this excellent ploy.

Kashmir came handy for the military, who used the Mohajir inspired identity of Islam to the hilt. The military sprang into action as the true defender of Islam and went to war. This ensured that the exchequer became military oriented and beholden to it for defending Islam, as the sword arm, and extracted their pound of flesh.

Islam being partial to an aggressive mindset accepted the military's domination over democratic norms and thus this psyche gave legitimacy to successive military govt and its stranglehold over the economy wherein the army put its finger in every economic pie. It also turned the Nelson's eye to the military's infiltration and thus stranglehold over the bureaucracy by appointing serving and retired military officers in important bureaucratic and economic appointments.

This unholy churn and mismatch of governance is the cause of Pakistan's woe wherein the democratic institutions and norms have been sabotage and totally put out of shape.

While Islam ruled supreme in Pakistan, it had not yet been encased ''in the show window''.

It was Zia, who ensured Pakistan breathed and slept Islam! It was again a Machevillian ploy of an illegitimate dictator to legitimise his regime and the US strategic interest in Afghanistan was his Allah given gift.

Zia's "vision" of Islamic predominance of all matters temporal is what has added to the identity crisis. Fundamentalist Wahhabism and the ummah, an unrealistic dream of all Moslems, has seized the people.

Therefore, all one can say is, Quo Vadis, Pakistan?

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 22 Sep 08: A Who’s Who of the Insurgency in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province: Part One – North and South Waziristan

Militants operating in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) include both Taliban and non-Taliban forces. However, the Taliban militants are much larger in number and have a lot more influence in the region. The Pakistani Taliban have close links with the Afghan Taliban and operate on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, also known as the Durand Line after the British diplomat who demarcated the boundary in 1893, Sir Mortimer Durand. The non-Taliban militants, on the other hand, are often pro-government and enjoy cordial ties with the Pakistan authorities and security forces......

[Jedburgh]

A pair of briefs from the Pakistan Security Research Unit, 22 Sep 08:

Future Prospects for FATA

The future of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal areas (FATA) has become the focus of intense anxiety and debate both within the country and in the wider international community. The problems, posed by the lawlessness of this strategic region for the ‘War on Terror’, hardly need stating, but there is little consensus regarding the way forward. Allegations of cross-border infiltration by a resurgent Taliban based in FATA have soured relations between Pakistan and the government of Hamid Karzai in neighbouring Afghanistan. Growing US and British casualties in Southern Afghanistan have raised concerns about Pakistan’s military effectiveness and commitment and have led to public debate about the necessity for US unilateral action within Pakistan’s tribal territory. There have also been claims that people in the intelligence services sympathised with the militants.....

Sectarian Violence in Pakistan's Kurram Agency

Since 2004, there has been intense violence in the FATA. What started in South Waziristan,slowly spread to North Waziristan in 2005 and then later to Bajaur and Mohamand Agency during 2006 and 2007. For the last two years, this violence has spread to the settled districts of the NWFP including Bannu, DI Khan, Peshawar and Swat. Led by the Taliban and its local supporters in the FATA and NWFP, this violence is posing a serious threat to the process of governance, challenging the writ of the State. Referred to by media as Talibanization, these developments have been the subject of intense academic, media and policy interest.

Unfortunately, this excessive focus on the Talibanization phenomenon, has not given adequate space to focus on the ongoing sectarian violence in Kurram Agency. Since 2007, sectarian killings have increased in the agency and have taken many lives. During the last two months (July-August 2008) alone, there have been around 300 casualties.

This briefing examines what is happening in Kurram Agency, and explores three questions: Why is there sectarian violence in this agency? Why has it escalated recently? And are there any connections between this violence and the violence that is happening in the neighbouring Agencies of the FATA?

[sullygoarmy]

A good article on Pakistan in the Economist as well:

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/...ry_id=12267391

[Jedburgh]

PSRU, 29 Sep 08: Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: An Agency by Agency Assessment

There are seven tribal agencies (Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Kurram, Orakzai, North Waziristan and South Waziristan) and six Frontier Regions (Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, D I Khan and Tank). They share a similar history and structure of ‘governance’ and -in varying degrees- all the agencies are suffering from the fallout from the US led War on Terror. However, they are not homogenous, and there are multiple actors in, and differing dynamics to, the conflicts in the tribal borderlands. The purpose of this briefing is to outline the differences between the agencies in terms of the nature of violence, the humanitarian situation and the prospects for improving the situation within the region, using both quantitative and qualitative methods.

There are clear limitations to such a research process, and accurate quantifiable assessment of the human security situation in the FATA is difficult. The region remains subject to a media blackout, and in cases where journalists are active, they are likely to be cautious and, understandably, exercise a degree of self-censorship with what they publish. In this context, the assessment below can only ever be illustrative rather than exhaustive, and it remains an assessment which probably represents a minimum baseline in terms of the extent of human suffering in the region, based on the collation of media reports. Notwithstanding a significant margin for error, the differences appear important, and, quantitatively, it seems that the agencies have not equally shared the insecurity in the region, suggesting some agencies may be more resilient than others to the Talibanization, whereas other may have simply submitted to the militant presence.

Complete 21-page brief at the link.

[Jedburgh]

PSRU, 20 Oct 08: Toward a Containment Strategy in the FATA

.....the least-worst option at present, is through a containment strategy for the FATA. Such a strategy would seek to insulate the FATA from the dynamics in Afghanistan and Pakistan, would seek to de-escalate the violence within the FATA, and would refocus the objectives of the US and Pakistan militaries. If such a strategy is to be effective it must be co-ordinated, it must operate at multiple levels, and it must be sustained because it will not be immediately effective. Recognising that not all the players in this strategy will be willing partners it is necessary also that recalibrated pressure forms part of the strategy.....

[ODB]

From the AP:

The Taliban activity in northwest Pakistan also comes as the country shifts forces east to the Indian border because of tensions over last month's terrorist attacks in Mumbai, potentially giving insurgents more space to maneuver along the Afghan frontier.

Militants began preying on Swat's lush mountain ranges about two years ago, and it is now too dangerous for foreign and Pakistani journalists to visit. Interviews with residents, lawmakers and officials who have fled the region paint a dire picture.

A suicide blast killed 40 people Sunday at a polling station in Buner, an area bordering Swat that had been relatively peaceful. The attack underscored fears that even so-called "settled" regions presumptively under government control are increasingly unsafe.

The 3,500-square-mile Swat Valley lies less than 100 miles from the capital, Islamabad

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...7LLJgD95COON80

[Rob Thornton]

Bad news indeed. It makes you wonder if someone in the planning loop of the Mumbai attacks might have considered the potential of increasing Pakistani/Indian tensions and the resulting redistribution of Pakistani forces.

Whether deliberate, or lucky on the part of the enemy - the sooner that tension is eased some the better for us, the Afghanistan government, the Pakistanis, and the Indians.

From another perspective, it seems to show the enemy does not have to coordinate (at least in the way we think of it) its actions to have an effect or to take advantage of new conditions as a result of that effect.

Best, Rob

[ODB]

Sorry was on my way out the door this morning when I came across that little nugget of news. I had a few immediate thoughts: The first was the same Rob mentioned; how much of the Mumbai attacks was geared towards getting this reaction out of Pakistan? Was it planned accordingly with the time of year, winter is a slow time in Afghanistan, therefore enabling them to broaden their power base in Pakistan? Or was it simply coincidence? Secondly is now with a larger land base how much can the Taliban recruit, train, equip? Are they again moving to a larger scale military force to be reckoned with inside Pakistan to eventually cross over in strength into Afghanistan? The problems that arrise when an insurgency grows to military might. Thirdly how does this affect our policy on going into Pakistan? NATOs policies in Afghanistan? Pakistans ability to squash it when things with India calm back down? Just a few of the immediate thoughts and I'm sure there are a miliion others out there. Talk about on effect based operations, maybe we should take note if this was planned!

[davidbfpo]

On the BBC website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7868875.stm

Not exactly good news and note the headline, odd.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

There is growing anti Taliban and al Qaida sentiment evident over recent months and days on the above blog/website. These writers, some high school and college studens in UK, are helping plan a major demonstration against slaughers going on in Northern Pakistan currently, particularly inside Swat.

Thought this snippet might be of interest to you all.
George Singleton


http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...9199#post59199
Posted by: aimal khan
On: Today 03:22 PM

I am not against Islam as a religion( faith+worship+morality) and spiritual institution but I am totally against the extremist Islam in any shape like Salafis, Ahle hadith, Wahabis, Taliban, Panjpeeris, Ishate tawheed wa Sunna , and some extremist Deobandis. They are one of the most important causes of terrorism in today´s world. Politics of USA are power politics and they desrve it. Muslims used to do the same when they were in power rather worse than USA today as USA is not directly conquering the lands inspite of the necessary resources they have.Muslims started from MAKKAH and MADINA and conquered almost the whole known world to them at that time. Although that time they were not terrorists. they were fighting against their enemies according to all the established rules of war. Todays extremist muslims dont have power and try to fight against their enemies by the tool of terrorism whis is absurd, cruel, unjust and stupid.


All the best,
Global Hujra: A Pakhtun Cyber Land

[George L. Singleton]

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...59769post59769

Note message # 690 regarding Swat.

[SWJED]

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...59769post59769

Note message # 690 regarding Swat.

George, God love ya, please -and in concise and relevant terms - provide the "why" Council members should blindly follow the links you provide, here and on other threads. Council members deserve at least that much - right? - Dave

[Schmedlap]

I second, with a recommendation.

George seems to have an interest in, special knowledge of, and generally to be well read on to, this locale and, particularly, the open source goings-on. Perhaps an ongoing "George's take on the Pakistani region" thread would be a good place to consolidate these occasional snippets. George's insights are interesting and I suspect that he has more knowledge of the region than many of us and probably has a different perspective. It would be a shame for his observations to go unread simply due to how they are presented.

[George L. Singleton]

SWJED:

I have introed these websites/blogs in some detail in recent days/weeks, and have received several in the open as well as indiviudal e-mails exploring them further.

As the war on terrorism, my view, has since 9/11 been centered in the Pukhtun belt, ie, both Northern Pakistan and most all of Afghanistan, I thought this as well as the past history of Muslim press articles I have posted on SWJ from both the Peshawar FRONTIER POST and Karach DAWN helped explain this.

Of course, if you have another view and different interests, that is good, but some on here, beside me, are also interested in knowing about the core hot fighting areas which impact our future success, or failure, in relation to our alliance with Pakistan and the new government of Afghanistan, both of which are spinning like a top in relation to Pukhtun terrorist actions these articles address.

Hope this explanation helps, and again, others have shown both on line and individual e-mail interest in same.

I have tried to post these blog and related entries in areas of general as well as Afghanistan interest, and am always subject to having these posts moved to correct topical section, which does happen, which is great by me.

Yes, I, too, am a red headed Irishman myself.

Cheers.

[davidbfpo]

On the BBC earlier: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7891410.stm

From this faraway observation point this looks like the "stop and go" policy stance seen so often under President Musharraf and Pakistani Army rule. Except this time the agreement is between the Taliban and the NWFP provincial government.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

Hell, the AP is reading and plagerizing my quotes the bunch of cowards, most of whom write from over here about over there to begin with. They use native stringers in country who themsleves have often moved to Australian and write from there after "telephone" chats with the old boys back in the NWFP.

Here is a clip of Peshawar circa 1968 for those interested in same. I was in and out of Peshawar from 1963-1965, so this later date, 1968 clip is from a friend's cousin who served at my U-2 Base in Badabar after I had rotated stateside.

The US lost the lease (Operation Sandbag) for our intel and U-2 base at Peshawar/Badabar as of the start of 1969, when Pakistan swung into the Communist China economic and military alliance column.

http://www.vbs.tv/full_screen.php?s=...5DC&sc=1363196

http://www.pakdef.info/forum/archive...hp/t-3560.html

http://www.coldwar.org/text_files/Co...mesNov2008.pdf

http://www.6937th.50megs.com/

Enough already, right?

[George L. Singleton]

US special envoy says Swat a real threat for all of us

NEW DELHI (Reuters): An Islamist militancy in Pakistan's Swat region is a common threat to the United States, India and Pakistan, a special US envoy said on Monday, after meeting with India's foreign minister and top security officials. Seeking a greater role for India in stabilizing the region, Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, said he discussed details of his visit last week to the two countries and shared his concerns about security. "For the first time in 60 years since independence your country and Pakistan, the US, all face an enemy that poses a direct threat to our leadership, our capitals and our people," Holbrooke told reporters in New Delhi.

As found now at: http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News....at=ts&nid=4073

The above lead front page story in the Peshawar Monday, Feb. 16, 2009 FRONTIER POST is worth the 30 seconds or less to read it. I have not been exaggerating how bad the Swat surrender by Pakistan is...it will be used now as a safe have (not on a common border with Afghanistan) to martial, train, and send terrorists into both Afghanistan and Kashmir/India side.

Grim continuing story of pro-Taliban flag ranks who run the Pak military and I repeat are undermining the President of Pakistan in the process, which means killing democracy and paving the way yet again for another military coup before the end of 2009 in Pakistan.

[davidbfpo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/17/wo..._r=1&th&emc=th

Once in a while even the NEW YORK TIMES gets it's facts straught.

The future of Swat the NYT suggests is a consolidated base for both the Taliban and al Qaida.

I agree with the TIMES in this article where they basically assess "excuses" being made by the Pak government as a pack of lies.

Moved here by davidbfpo and originally by George S.