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Thread: Pakistani internal security (catch all)

  1. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by George L. Singleton View Post
    Ron:
    The Taliban and al Qaida defacto have allies in the Pakistani Government, Army, and the ISI, as seen by most Pukhtun writers on Hujra Online, and I am starting to agree with them, as moving troops away from fighting terrorists to the stupid Indian border just lets the damned terrorists have the run of the ground in Swat, FATA, NWFP, Waziristan, and Balochistan ALL OVER AGAIN!
    Simple interest calculator calculation rates mortgage compound high interest savings account
    A MIDDLE GROUND of sane Pukhtuns do not totally reject the national/nationally backed provincial governments, and these are mainly YOUNGER Pukhtuns who have educations to even be on a website such as Hujra Online.

    The hope, or failure of Northern Pakistan is largely with the high school and university age young men and women who are Pukhtuns. These in the main are who write on this site and who I communicate with as best I can.

    MULTILINGUAL, not stupid, folks, these Pukhtuns. A typical educated or being educated today Pukhtun, is eduated in Urdu (the official language of the Pak Government is Urdu. Urdu is the identifying language of Punjabis, anethma to older Pukhtuns and to a growing number of younger Pukhtuns).

    They then "chose" to save their culture via their language, which they also study and become fluent in, Pashtu.

    To be effective in both the region and on a world level, focused on Pukhtuns overseas in Europe, Canada, and the US, they learn and are pretty good with English.
    If we look on today's environment, you will find that it's very changed now.

  2. #222
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Welcome

    Roughnet,

    Welcome aboard SWC and many members appreciate a little introduction, within OPSEC and anonymity - posted on this thread: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=1441&page=55

    It is not compulsory, but new members credibility is influenced by the introduction.

    Finally, George S. no longer contributes and it would help if you could enhance your opinion line, either citing articles or your own experiences.

    davidbfpo

  3. #223
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    Default Pakistani internal security (all themes and a merged thread)

    The jihadi raid on Pakistan's GHQ prompted immediate discussion on our blog and others, complete with conspiracy theories (the army did it to prepare public opinion for the waziristan operatiion, the CIA did it to prepare the army opinion for the same, the jihadis did it, T.H..E.Y did it, and so on). I am posting my comment (posted in response to the theory that the army arranged this "show") and look forward to your comments.
    Dr T,
    I assume you are asking about the GHQ siege. I think the commando action sounds like it was capable and well executed. You are being cynical about why the suicide bomber did not blow himself up, but it is not impossible to kill a suicide bomber before he explodes. Commandos executing such a raid are always taking a risk, but there is always the chance of success. This is what they are trained to do. They can use stun grenades, which can disorient and stun the terrorists for a few moments. In that time, the commando sharpshooters have to shoot the terrorists without killing hostages. The first reaction of the terrorists is to fire back at the attackers, not to turn and start shooting hostages. Anyway, in our history, we have had good operations (this one and the one in lal masjid) and really bad screw-ups (the Pan Am hijacking in the eighties when the commandos seem to have killed more hostages than the hijackers managed to kill).
    The bottom line is, even I find it hard to believe that anyone in the army would be as stupid as to have these martyrdom seekers attack their own GHQ. I think this was a bona-fide terrorist attack. Its a huge embarrassment for the army that they got into even the outer buildings of GHQ. Still, once they had been embarrassed, the army did take the risk of having the hostages killed and went for an early commando raid and as such raids go, they seem to have succeeded.
    I think the more important thing is to notice that the person leading the terrorists is supposed to be the same SOB who attacked the Sri-lankan cricket team in April. Why was he still at large? renting houses, arranging white vans with army license plates, getting terrorists in place for a well planned raid? This is not a good reflection on the state of law enforcement and anti-terrorist operations in the country.
    Also, this is old news for many of us, but worth pointing out that this jihadi terrorist, like all the others now being hunted or asked to go to Indian Kashmir ASAP, was initially trained by our own blessed intelligence agencies and their pet proxies. And he and his ilk are able to survive until today because parts of the jihadi infrastructure (supporters, sympathizers, financiers, facilitators) share space with "India-specific terrorists" and still do not face a situation where the entire network is under attack from the state. More important, the educated public in Pakistan is still confused about what is going on. The army's powerful psyops operation is very quick to manufacture outrage about Hussain Haqqani or Asif Zardari, but has not made a systematic effort to disown and attack the armed jihadis. Their patrons (like Hameed Gul and company) and bull#### artists like Ahmed Qureshi and Zaid Hamid are still being invited on the media to cloud the issue with conspiracy theories about Indian hand and American embassy staffers and their cars. This is a very serious handicap because it means that "moderate islamists" (a large constituency in educated Pakistan) and ordinarly Pakistanis in general are still not clear about who the enemy is. Without the cooperation of the general public, no anti-terrorist campaign can succeed.
    Having said that, I would also add that I continue to believe that the longer term trend is clearly against the jihadis. There is just no way that the "settled areas" of Pakistan will opt for taliban style rule. The hardcore jihadi enterprise is not compatible with survival in the modern world and will eventually be confined to places like Waziristan and isolated small groups (the islamist equivalent of the Baader Meinhof gang and the Red brigades). All the above comments are part of the messy mechanism of getting from the age of Hameed Gul and General Mahmud to the age of co-existence with India and the modern world.
    Omar

  4. #224
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Better target selection (Part X of Y)

    Omar,

    I do not hold with many conspiracy theories and in this case find it hard to imagine even the most deluded Pakistani Army officer would do this thinking it helped the causes of the Army, even ISI.

    Given the capabilities and intentions of the three groups forming the militant opposition (Pakistani Taleban, LeT and South Punjabi groups) such an attack is clearly possible. What I do wonder about is the selection of such a target, who choses them? The Lahore attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team shows a strategic, maybe tactical acumen not normally seen. On reflection after Mumbai, maybe we should have learnt they will attack for maximim imagery impact.

    After the UN suicide bomber attack in Islamabad, reportedly by a Frontier Corps dressed individual, it is time for Pakistan and others to re-think their most vulnerable targets.

    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Omar,

    I do not hold with many conspiracy theories and in this case find it hard to imagine even the most deluded Pakistani Army officer would do this thinking it helped the causes of the Army, even ISI.

    ...After the UN suicide bomber attack in Islamabad, reportedly by a Frontier Corps dressed individual, it is time for Pakistan and others to re-think their most vulnerable targets.

    davidbfpo
    I dont hold with the conspiracy theory either, maybe that was not clear from my post. About target selection, I think the number of possible high impact targets is so great that just increasing security at particular sites is not going to work (though its important in its own place). The real issue is to go after the heads of the network. Spontaneous jihadis are an overrated threat, the only serious threat is from organized networks. These are professionals, they have all been trained using the same CIA field manual the UNiversity of Nebraska so helpfully translated into Urdu and Pushto. If the Pakistani army actually manages to attack them in Waziristan, their effectiveness will decrease and new recruitment in Pakistan will become much harder for them. Without a base, they will gradually be wiped out, with a base they can always find replacements for any particular individual who is knocked out.

  6. #226
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Waziristan: campaigning in the past and soon?

    A new Pakistani campaign in Waziristan is expected soon and has been subject of scattered comments on SWJ blog and within other threads.

    There are lessons to learn from an Imperial (British Empire in India) campaign in this part of the FATA read thanks to the UK blogsite (again): http://defenceoftherealm.blogspot.co...re-before.html

    There are links to other sources within and this appeared originally within the current Afghan campaigning thread: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...?t=8577&page=4 where similar points that lessons can be learnt have been made.

    I do wonder whether the Pakistani military remember this too? Imperial history is still part of their tradition and army units have kept their old Imperial names, head dress and more (not the consumption of alcohol).

    davidbfpo
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-13-2009 at 10:00 PM.

  7. #227
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    Default Tequila's response

    IMO the Pak Army retains far too much of the British attitude towards the FATA. The system for "controlling" FATA remained much the same as during British times (political agents = political agents, Waziristan Scouts = Frontier Corps), and the level of development.

    (Copied from earlier thread by moderator).

  8. #228
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The Faqir lost - a riposte

    A reader of SWC has responded to my initial posting:

    I read the original article years ago and have now read this blog. The problem is, it's wrong.

    The fact is that the Faqir was defeated. He could barely muster any men by the middle of 1939. During the war years, precisely the time
    he could have taken advantage of Britain, he was unable to stir the Waziris to any resistance. Recruiting for the British Indian Army went exponential. The number of incidents against the British and the border units fell to practically nil from February 1941 until 1947 when the British left.

    Hauner was simply inaccurate because he had not done the archival work. Trevor Warren wrote the best account, now sadly out of print.

    The key point is that the Waziris, especially tribal elders, dissuaded young Waziris from joining the Faqir and his band. he was regarded as a troublemaker. Waziris had more sense than to take on the British on a permanent basis.

    On these grounds, the Pakistan Army is NOT about to make the
    same mistake at all, and history does not, contrary to popular mythology, repeat itself.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-13-2009 at 10:09 PM.

  9. #229
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    Default Waziristan, the Faqir of Ipi, and the Indian Army

    A quick Google found some details of the Warren book:

    Alan Warren. Waziristan, the Faqir of Ipi, and the Indian Army: The North West Frontier Revolt of 1936–37. New York: Oxford University Press. 2000. Pp. xxxii, 324. $29.95.

    This is an account taken from official records of the 1930s' tribal insurgencies in the Waziristan region of India's northwest frontier. The Waziristan agencies were on the periphery of British India and had a population, by its close, of little more than two hundred thousand. The region was the scene, however, of the greatest military conflicts of the closing years of the Raj. Following the tribal insurgencies of 1919–1920 and 1936–1937, there was the heaviest concentration of troops and police per head of population anywhere on the subcontinent. It is therefore a little surprising that these events had received scant historical attention until the publication of this study.

    Alan Warren unashamedly adopts the narrative style of military history and reveals a fine eye for detail as he meticulously pieces together British engagements in Waziristan. The greatest attention is devoted to the insurgency led by the Muslim holy man known as the Faqir of Ipi in 1936–1937. Although the tribal revolt was decisively crushed, a cat and mouse game continued between the Faqir and the British authorities throughout the remainder of their stay in India.

    From: http://www.historycooperative.org/cg...6.4/br_26.html

  10. #230
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    Default Terrorist attacks in Pakistan

    There were multiple terrorist attacks across Pakistan today. I posted the following comment on my email group this morning and thought it may be of interest to some people here:
    I just spoke with some friends in Lahore and they (and according to them, "everyone in Lahore") were convinced that these attacks were carried out on American instructions. The argument was that the US wants Pakistan in turmoil so it can get them to launch an operation against the very people America is using to create turmoil so that those same people can be attacked by the Pak army..I know. My jaw dropped as well.
    OR, its doing this to sell them weapons. or steal the nuclear bomb. Or build a gas pipeline. or raise Obama's poll numbers. or just because its America and America does evil things. or something, no one really knows for sure. I was also told that "the army has reported that some madressas in Rajanpur got funding in dollars. The conclusion is obvious"? Naturally, I was speechless. Ahmed Qureshi and Zaid Hamid have done their job all too well, the army apparently cannot now convince the people to fight the jihadis EVEN IF IT WANTED TO. Aap apney jaal mein Sayyad aa gaya...
    No fiction writer could ever have written this and got away with it. Indeed, truth is stranger than fiction.
    btw, does anyone have any information about who is funding Ahmed Qureshi and company? Is ISI still employing them or are they free-lance now? When the history of this time is written, the role played by professional gnerators of conspiracy theories will be studied and historians will wonder how so few could confuse so many for so long. (and of course, even the paranoid have enemies, so I am not saying ALL the conspiracy theories are incorrect).
    The ruling elite (and their American and Saudi and now Chinese partners) has spent 50 years manipulating things from behind the scenes. By now, the trust level in society (in these matters) is so low, the army cannot fix its own mess. If I was not from Lahore, I would sit back with my bag of popcorn and my diet coke and watch this #### go down on live TV. But I cant. I am afraid that a situation worse than Algeria might be coming down the pike, and we are less prepared for it than the Algerians were. Some of the pathologies are similar (corrupt elite, unjust system, post-colonial schizophrenic culture, rebels who have picked a particularly vicious ideology to express their hatred of this awful elite) and some are even worse (no history of common liberation struggle, greater penetration of Saudi influence, partition and its unique pathologies, much larger population, more ungoverned areas, lack of credible political leadership). This is not looking good.

  11. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
    If I was not from Lahore, I would sit back with my bag of popcorn and my diet coke and watch this #### go down on live TV. But I cant. I am afraid that a situation worse than Algeria might be coming down the pike, and we are less prepared for it than the Algerians were. Some of the pathologies are similar (corrupt elite, unjust system, post-colonial schizophrenic culture, rebels who have picked a particularly vicious ideology to express their hatred of this awful elite) and some are even worse (no history of common liberation struggle, greater penetration of Saudi influence, partition and its unique pathologies, much larger population, more ungoverned areas, lack of credible political leadership). This is not looking good.
    Omarali, keep us up to date I enjoy reading your reports. I saw a TV news report tonight about Lahore and 2 other attacks they were supposedly conducted all at about the same time. If that is correct that shows a high degree of coordination for all the attacks. What is your opinion on this?

  12. #232
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    These are well trained terrorists. I am sure you have studied the operation they launched against Mumbai. And they have these things written down in manuals. When you join LET, you first go for a basic course (a few weeks) learning to shoot and stuff. Then some go on to more advanced courses. They keep diaries, they get homework. They are highly motivated. I am not surprised at the level of coordination. But all of this requires safe houses and training centers. Unless the army decides to go after those, there is no way you can protect every possible target. There are literally thousands of targets.

  13. #233
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Pakistan has yet to mobilise

    Stephen Tankel has added a trenchant comment on the situation in Pakistan: http://www.icsr.info/blog/Jumping-the-Shark and asks at the end:

    For starters, I'm curious if anyone out there knows of improvements or planned improvements in terms of a) better inter-agency intelligence sharing; b) increased funding and training for Pakistani police; or c) increasing capacity within intelligence agencies that are not the ISI.
    I know there is a thread on the ANP, but I cannot immediately recall one on the police in Pakistan (although ISI do crop up irregularly - in a thread?).

    Another day I shall search around for articles on the Pakistan police. There is a ICG report on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=5737 (July 2008).

    davibfpo
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-22-2009 at 01:44 PM. Reason: Add link

  14. #234
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    Very interesting situation... the Pakistani Taliban seem to be gambling that this string of attacks will break the political will behind action against them and their sanctuaries. That seems a bit of a risk; the attacks could have the opposite effect. I don't know enough about Pakistan to have an opinion on how the government and the populace will respond, but it certainly bears watching.

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    Default Truth or Fiction

    No fiction writer could ever have written this and got away with it. Indeed, truth is stranger than fiction.
    The above statement is so true. If I wrote a fiction book in 1999 and the tale basically went that some master mind in Afghanistan launched a few dedicated terrorists to the U.S. to crash planes into the WTC and the Pentagon most analysts would have fell on the floor laughing. Then assuming our response was to send in a few brave souls from the CIA and Special Operations to oust this evil force, and just to add some more spice I might write that a few Special Forces teams on horse back were directing deadly fires from our air assets to support their Northern Alliance partners that they were fighting side by side with any so called serious military analyst would wonder just what the hell I was smoking when I wrote this. If I then wrote that in response to the 9/11 attacks we invaded Iraq the diplomatic community would say no way, that's stupid, but nevermind them, back to the conflict. I would write that our mighty armed forces were challenged by 4GW irregular forces, but that our forces eventually eventually got the upper hand after re-learning how to defeat irregular threats. Those military analysts who thought if we had the ability to defeat the Soviets in the Fulda Gap, then we obviously had the ability to defeat a few irregulars or dead enders, are still scratching their heads. There is no way that an irregular force could have seriously challenged their armor and firepower formations, so my book would go in the trash can. If I wrote book three of this saga and indicated that a nuclear power nation-state was facing the possibility of state failure due to irregular threats that are connected to global non-state movement I would have been thrown into the nut house.

    Our failure to stop 9/11 according to the 9/11 commission was a lack of imagination. What a difference a day makes.

  16. #236
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    Default

    cross posting from abumuqawama, here is my take on this offensive:
    Based purely on public information about the terrain, the military operation and what we know of the insurgents, plus what the refugees are saying: the army has advanced a short distance into the Islamic emirate. They captured and then lost Hakeemullah's home village and have not managed to get it back yet. The taliban are willing to stand and fight in at least some locations and the army is very loath to close and fight hand to hand. The army is shelling and strafing villages and compounds with abandon. Those places are mostly empty, so casualties on all sides are low. My guess is that until now the army has suffered more casualties than the taliban. That is because the individual talib soldiers are better trained and motivated than the army. The army has a huge edge in firepower but that is not enough to dislodge them from where they are prepared to stand and fight. The army's hope is that massive use of artillery and airpower and a general show of force will convince the talibs to melt away rather than stand and fight. The taliban are willing to go along with that in many places, but are not willing to just withdraw from everywhere and allow the army to claim victory. At some point, the army will have to fight up close, at which point casualties will rise dramatically. To avoid such casualties the army is willing to go slow and hope that the good taliban can convince the evil taliban not to be stubborn and to let the army have its way (in return the talibs get to stay alive and concentrate on Afghanistan). But the bad taliban are not willing to follow the script. THEIR hope is that their campaign of terrorism will cause the people of Pakistan to press the army to stop. What I cannot figure out is what is the army's plan if they continue terrorism and DON'T melt away? Taking Waziristan ridge by ridge is not going to be a picnic. MAYBE the army is determined to do that if they have to, but I dont see convincing evidence of that as yet...I look forward to your report....

  17. #237
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    Default

    Army reports they have retaken Kotkai.

  18. #238
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Pakistani analyst viewpoint

    Attached is a short version of a paper written by a Pakistani civilian analyst, based in the USA, who has contributed on SWC before.

    davidbfpo
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    If its not totally classified, can anyone enlighten us about the current level of cooperation between the US/NATO and the Pakistani army?
    David, your analyst asks for drone attacks to be stopped, but doesnt make it clear what the reason is. IF the Pak army is in action against the bad taliban, one assumes that the bad taliban are already doing all they can to strike back. is there an assumption here that they will strike back even harder if they are being bothered by drones? Or is it that the writer think Pakistani army morale and public support will go down if there are drone attacks? IF so, why? the army is in a life and death struggle against well armed militants. Why is it so hard to tell its own officers that drones are helping us? Or is it that the drones will ignite unpleasantness from the "good taliban"? IF so, does it suit the US to let the good taliban have a break in the interest of having the pakistani army deal with them later? Or does it suit the US to inflame the good taliban and get them to a final rupture with the army? What is going on behind the scenes?

  20. #240
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Co-operation across the Durand Line?

    Omerali asked:
    If its not totally classified, can anyone enlighten us about the current level of cooperation between the US/NATO and the Pakistani army?
    I understand that the Western coalition have offered places on COIN training courses for mid-rank officers. Whether the Pakistani Army has resumed courses in the USA is unknown here; historically this was for senior officers.

    IIRC the UK has not had Pakistani cadets at Sandhurst for a long time, although there is one Afghan there now.

    The Frontier Corps has an external training mission, IIRC the US was working with the FC's SF unit months ago.

    Much was made over a year plus ago that there was a tripartite commission between Afghanistan, Pakistan and the coalition - based in Kabul. Again IIRC there was an Islamabad-based aspect too.

    There have been repeated comments that many of the drone attacks are a response to Pakistani requests and intelligence. Leaving aside that one Pakistani AFB is a drone base.

    Given the often reported Pakistani Army anger at US interventions, visits and more one can only wonder at the reality of co-operation.

    davidbfpo

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