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Thread: Pakistani internal security (catch all)

  1. #301
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    omarali50:

    Do you think Pakistan will pull out of its' death spiral before the catastrophe comes?
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  2. #302
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    My usual optimistic take is that the ruling elite is fond of skating close to the edge and have nothing to sell except nuisance value, so they do take risks. but they are not suicidal.
    Also, even if the state is in trouble, the people are not worthless. They find ways to survive. No alternative is obvious. So we will survive.

    On the other hand, there is this:

    http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrin...=9&dt=1/7/2011

    Since this is "from the horse's mouth", it tells me that the superthinkers at GHQ are going to try a new high jump (as friend Kamran Shafi would put it).

  3. #303
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
    Also, even if the state is in trouble, the people are not worthless. They find ways to survive. No alternative is obvious. So we will survive.
    I like that. It is kind of poetic.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  4. #304
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Another sign of the dysfunctional Pakistani state?

    A good commentary by a Pakistani on FP:http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts...akistani_state

    This says it all:
    The cancer of fanaticism that consumed Taseer's life is a product of two generations of Pakistani state actions, starting with General Zia-ul Haq's offering up the country as an assembly line of warriors for the war in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union in the 1990s, and continuing with General Pervez Musharraf's offering up the same country as a staging ground for a war against those very warriors. The role of the war in Afghanistan and America's presence in the region is inescapable. It has helped catalyze and deepen the pre-existing groundswell of a radicalized the mainstream Pakistani narrative. This mess has been more than thirty years in the making. It is clear that no amount of externally-stimulated counterinsurgency or counterterrorism will do the trick. More is needed, much more. And all of it has to be organic and local. This, more than any other, is the greatest of intergenerational struggles.
    davidbfpo

  5. #305
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    David, I will start by saying that I wish both you and Mosharref Zaid well. You are fair and well intentioned and Mosharraf sahib is a pragmatist who is trying to find some way to get from A to B and will write whatever helps. Since I think getting to B will be an improvement, I am with him too.
    But, and there is always a but, the statement above is not really accurate. Among ourselves, wouldnt it be better to know the truth? I know the favored liberal propaganda line is that America is responsible for the jihadis, but I know many of the people involved in that wonderful period and I can tell you, the Americans would have been equally happy if the Afghan operation was staffed by hobbits..it was our brilliant General Zia who understood the potential for Jihad and made sure it was funded to the max; also, we accelerated recruitment and training AFTER the Americans left in 1991, so its a bit disingenuous to blame them for the growth of the jihadi menace. Finally, Musharraf's choice did not occur in a vaccum. The international terrorist network that our own intelligence agencies had facilitated had carried out an act of terrorism in the US. Whatever America's evil reasons for encouraging this menace for many years, it was now time to change course. What would Mosharref recommend? Staying the course with the jihadis was not an option. The crisis is not because America has "destabilized the region". The violence is due to jihadists refusing to go quietly into that good night. It would be perfectly accurate to say that they would never have gone quietly, though one can also say that their departure has not been well handled. But what is Mosharraf Zaidi's theory about how this could have been done without causing violence in Pakistan?

    The elite is in trouble and deserves to be in trouble. American interference has been ham-handed and poorly handled...but better handling would not have prevented violence. There are three sources of violence: one is the element of violence seen in every third world country where a small corrupt elite lords it over the mass of the people. Second is the added layer of violence caused by Islamist fanatics in many different Muslim countries because their ideal society is incompatible with current worldwide trends. The third is absolutely unique to our nation: it is the army's own arming and training and financing and ideologically supporting the most fanatical and vicious elements in the country in some insane scheme to wrest Kashmir from India and project power into Afghanistan and beyond. They did this with no awareness of the fact that they were arming and training the very people who would drive them out of their plush houses in Islamabad and Defence housing estates. For that we can thank the National Defence University and other islands of unadulterated bull#### where people like Musharraf learned that the "complex strategic threat from India" necessitated arming and training these killers.
    The problem is, the jihadis have no solution. Their "solution" is going to be a bloodbath with no stopping point. If the elite (corrupt, worthless, whatever, they are still our relatives and friends) does fall apart and run away to wherever they have stashed the cash, then we are in for a very violent disaster...one that may only be settled after china sends in those special forces they are training in Inner Mongolia for this eventuality (I hear the Chinese are very far-sighted....though this rumor too may turn out to be a liberal delusion)..

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    Default who supports the Islamists now?

    Omar Ali,

    In your opinion who are the main supporters of the extremists in the Pakistan now? Why?

    Who in Pakistan opposes the extremists? Why?

    For both questions I know the answers are not easy, but in general terms (which is generally misleading), what populace groups and what government officials/organizations support and resist?

    As you wrote, the extremists don't have a solution, they only offer blood shed and suppression of any learning and culture. It puzzles many of us as to why the extremists appear to have such a large following in Pakistan. People are rarely rational, so we shouldn't be surprised, but they're not normally suicidial either.

    Is the Pakistan media afraid to tell the truth? What publications or other means informs peoples opinions there?

    The rumor on the Chinese coming to the rescue is interesting, and it is the first I heard of it, but I guess it is believable to the people who see constantly see positive press reports about the Chinese despite their abysmal human rights record. Addtionally the Chinese went on record saying they only do business, they don't get involved in internal politics (not entirely true), but do the Pakistanis really think it is in the Chinese best interest to intervene in an ethnic conflict where there is no foreseeable end? Only we would do that.

    Always enjoy reading your comments.

  7. #307
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Pakistan's dilemma at Salmaan Taseer's murder

    Londonistani writes as ever an on the ground comment that is worth reading on Abu M:http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam....html#comments

    He ends with:
    If events such as the killing of Taseer are the symptoms of a failing state, would a succeeding state be the solution? In a word, yes. Pakistan's antidote, if it arrives, will come in the form of good, effective governance, social justice, accountability and transparency. At the end of the day, only Pakistanis can achieve those things for their country.
    I can vouch for the fact that this is not Bob's World writing under an alias.
    davidbfpo

  8. #308
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    Default failed states

    David,

    Good post, and topic that has been discussed at length. Three questions for the community.

    1. What is a failed state?

    2. What happens after a state has failed?

    3. Does foreign intervention only delay the natural evolution of the political process?

    I think we have seen instances where the executive leadership has failed (the Philippines under Marcos) and a subsequent state emerged that was a little better. Perhaps the same in Romania? Poland? etc., but that depends on how you define failed State.

    We have also seen the examples of Somalia where a subsequent State hasn't truly emerged, and the failed State status of Afghanistan after the communist government collapsed, where the bloodshed was stopped by the intervention of the Taliban.

    What happens if the State fails in Pakistan? What would it look like? How would a new government emerge?

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    Bill, to answer your earlier question about who supports extremism in Pakistan, my view is this:
    1. In most modern states (perhaps all of them), most of the population follows the lead of the national security apparatus in deciding who is an enemy and who is a friend. The RARE exception is a narrowly-based and extremely unpopular regime that can, over time, lose so much credibility that their view does not influence most people. This is not about the daily "poll ranking" of the President of the US, its about totally losing faith in the state system as such (a rare and near-terminal event). In other words, I devalue the worth of surveying the population to find out who is enemy and who is friend. That does not mean no other factor plays a role, but its to emphasize that the state's propaganda is more important than almost any other factor.
    2. The Pakistani population follows the lead of the Pakistani state. The state has identified Hindus, Jews and their agents as the enemies of the imaginary Ummah and its vanguard state (Pakistan). That deep state is the "supporter of extremism" that counts. There are several other powerful factors in play (and their powerfulness is a testament to the relative failure of the state) but even now, even today, nothing counts as much as what the deep state wants.
    3. The deep state is not some imaginary abstraction. There is a very real apparatus of brain-washing, its organized, its operators know what they are aiming for. If you need to know who they are, check out: http://criticalppp.com/archives/33954
    4. I know the above link is a partisan website with a very definite agenda. I just urge you to give thought to the possibility that the same may be said of the supporters of the deep state, but Western observers are trained to regard "mainstream media" as more or less free and middle of the road and to discount conspiracy theories about secret cabals. THat is a good policy in general, but always keep in mind that there ARE exceptions Sometimes, the paranoid DO have enemies...

  10. #310
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    Default Media is the mean

    I agree the media is the means to shape opinion and radicalize the populace, and it is also the means to send the message that cripples the radical message. Since apparently there is no dissenting voice against this extremism in the Pakistan media (I'm guessing, I don't know), then maybe he who controls the media is the one who controls the State or pseudo state?

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    I would add that the media in Pakistan is reasonably free and liberal opinion does still exist. My point was that the "deep state" deploys real power to push forward a certain worldview that they consider very important to the survival of Pakistan (they are wrong in my opinion). This worldview supports extremism. This worldview may have privately changed in some people at the top in GHQ (maybe), but they have neither publicised this change of heart, nor asked their many many agents in the media to do so...that is the single most powerful factor in this equation.
    Having said that, its possible that we are past some point of no return. I hope not, but maybe. Maybe they cannot publicly change their position because they have genuinely lost control of the situation. But in that case, we must start from this fact: that they have lost control of the situation. We cannot have it both ways..that they control the country and yet they cannot use their resources to influence ideology against the "extremists"...something is wrong with this picture.

  12. #312
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Omarali50:

    I read that the public education system in Pakistan teaches the worldview favored by the "deep state." Is that true?
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    IPCS, 7 Jan 11: Reading Pakistan I - Who Killed Salman Taseer?
    Yes, of course the security guard pumped bullets into Salman Taseer, the Governor of Punjab, who stood against the Blasphemy laws in Pakistan. But, did he really kill Taseer? Or is he only an expression and an instrument of a larger narrow religious chauvinism?

    Salman Taseer was not assassinated for political reasons. His assassination was a culmination of his opposition to the blasphemy law in general, and more specifically, his efforts to commute the death sentence of Aasiya Bibi, awarded by the lower court on charges of blasphemy.
    IPCS, 10 Jan 11: Reading Pakistan II - Four Implications of Salman Taseer's Assassination
    A voice of reason against the abuse of blasphemy law in Pakistan has been brutally silenced. What are the implications? If his assassination is a loss to the moderate voices in Pakistan, who stands to gain? What does this loss and gain mean for the future of Pakistan?

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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    Omarali50:

    I read that the public education system in Pakistan teaches the worldview favored by the "deep state." Is that true?

    Absolutely true.http://www.cfr.org/publication/20364...extremism.html

    I have several comments on the following blog that may be of interest: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/01/...tion/#comments

    I dont know, but the thought has crossed my mind that America will not manage to turn the army in any significant way...I think the US wants to get out and the army will provide a relatively soft exit and thats about it. The mess that follows will be China's headache (and India's). Maybe thats not such a catastrophe. The Chinese start out with less baggage and they are more businesslike and ruthless. Hopefully, they will guide their local agents into some simulacrum of stability.
    I am ranting and raving a little, so I will drop it for now. I really dont know how this will turn out. But if you want to know the deep state's latest attempt at humor, check out: http://aq-lounge.blogspot.com/2011/0...rom-abyss.html

  15. #315
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Interesting article in DAWN: "The Rise of Mehran Man":

    Often, perceptive foreigners spot social trends that escape us because we are too close to them to see the changes going on around us. For instance, Burke identifies the shift away from English, and sees ‘Mehran man’ as urban, middle class and educated outside the elite English-medium system. He sees Muslims being under attack from the West, and genuinely believes that the 9/11 attacks were a part of a CIA/Zionist plot. Actually, my experience is that many highly educated and sophisticated people share this theory.

    Burke continues his dissection of the rising Pakistani middle class: “Mehran man is deeply proud of his country. A new identification with the ummah, or the global community of Muslims, paradoxically reinforces rather than degrades his nationalism. For him, Pakistan was founded as an Islamic state, not a state for South Asian Muslims. Mehran man is an ‘Islamo-nationalist’. His country possesses a nuclear bomb….”

    Mehran man’s views about the region and the world reflect contradictions and confusion. While India is home to Bollywood and IPL cricket, it is also viewed as the historic enemy. And while increasingly Islamic jihadis who kill Pakistanis are seen as terrorists, those who kill westerners or Indians are called freedom fighters. Small surprise, then, that public opinion in Pakistan no longer favours a pro-western agenda.

    In his encounters with army officers, Burke sees a growing alienation from western goals and aims. According to him, the army is now full of Mehran men, and this has dramatically changed the institution’s orientation.
    The rise of urbanized middle classes in India, China, Pakistan, and Russia may lead to greater prosperity and democratization, but also to increased political instability, radicalism, and hyper-nationalism as well. Germany and Japan in the early 20th century provide cautionary examples of how rising prosperity does not necessarily equate to greater liberalism, especially if economic conditions turn. The current economic crisis in Pakistan might be just such a turning point, and not for the better.

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    I think the Mehran Man business is overrated. its true enough of army officers but the vast majority of Pakistanis are still urban poor or rural peasants, not "Mehran man". Mehran Man is ruling the place right now, but the basis for this creation is almost entirely imaginary (including extremely silly books like Indus Saga, and of course, the blessed "two-nation theory"). Mehran man will have to compromise with the reality of Pakistan's Indian and Afghan origins (with persian high culture thrown in) a bit more or he (and his women) are in for very serious trouble...

  17. #317
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The Egg analogy

    Pakistan I think can be described as an egg that moves around as the wind blows and a variety of players armed with a variety of weapons try to hit it. Some clearly want to smash the egg and re-assemble it very differently. Bit by bit those overseas, including those of Pakistani heritage, shrug their shoulders and are less inclined to help the egg survive.

    US, UK and other Western players policy has been to shore up the 'egg', but as we know it has also given the military players some weapons and loads of US$.

    Earlier Bill asked:
    What happens if the State fails in Pakistan? What would it look like? How would a new government emerge?
    Remarkably the Pakistani state is quite resilient and it is civil society, especially the secular parts, that are being battered. The state will survive. Look like? A more Islamic state, in reality not the current rhetoric, without affecting the power of the urban and rural rich (assuming they stay). Yet another period of 'emergency' and with little role for the West.
    davidbfpo

  18. #318
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Isn't the big danger though that the Indians will panic or be provoked beyond endurance? What would happen then is beyond bad.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    No, the big danger is that Pakistan will become more overtly Islamist, will finally be cut off from international assistance, and will then fall into serious disorder due to the Islamist's inability to provide basic services and manage existing internal conflicts...(I assume that China will not pick up the tab; that in turn is based on the assumption that the Chinese know how to count money)
    India cannot do anything dangerous (and will not do anything dangerous) as long as Pakistan is a functioning state. If it falls into disorder, they will face piracy, illegal immigration and terrorism threats like everyone else in the neighbourhood.
    The US has the least to worry about, but will pull its hair out and invest large amounts up to that point as if it has a lot to lose. WHen you play worldcop long enough, you start to believe your own responsibilities are very serious.
    I recognize the possibility that the overt Islamist takeover will be so ruthless that they will actually organize a functioning state. But it will not be the international threat that is being imagined. It will still barely keep its head above water while shooting thousands to maintain order.
    A dystopian (and satirical/exaggerated) vision of that state is at http://accidentalblogger.typepad.com...-2022omar.html

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    Default Colonel Imam murdered by his kidnappers in Wazirstan

    Hat tip to Circling the Lion's Den for drawing attention to the pakistani news report on:
    ..Colonel Imam, the former Pakistani ISI officer responsible for training many of the current leaders of the Afghan Taliban, including leader Mullah Omar, has been found murdered outside the town of Mir Ali in North Wazirstan.
    Link:http://circlingthelionsden.blogspot....idnappers.html

    One wonders how those within ISI who sympathise with the Taliban - the Pakistani variety - will react. Note the report implies those responsible are renegades. What will be more interesting is the reaction amongst the local populace.
    davidbfpo

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