Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[omarali50]

The jihadi raid on Pakistan's GHQ prompted immediate discussion on our blog and others, complete with conspiracy theories (the army did it to prepare public opinion for the waziristan operatiion, the CIA did it to prepare the army opinion for the same, the jihadis did it, T.H..E.Y did it, and so on). I am posting my comment (posted in response to the theory that the army arranged this "show") and look forward to your comments.
Dr T,
I assume you are asking about the GHQ siege. I think the commando action sounds like it was capable and well executed. You are being cynical about why the suicide bomber did not blow himself up, but it is not impossible to kill a suicide bomber before he explodes. Commandos executing such a raid are always taking a risk, but there is always the chance of success. This is what they are trained to do. They can use stun grenades, which can disorient and stun the terrorists for a few moments. In that time, the commando sharpshooters have to shoot the terrorists without killing hostages. The first reaction of the terrorists is to fire back at the attackers, not to turn and start shooting hostages. Anyway, in our history, we have had good operations (this one and the one in lal masjid) and really bad screw-ups (the Pan Am hijacking in the eighties when the commandos seem to have killed more hostages than the hijackers managed to kill).
The bottom line is, even I find it hard to believe that anyone in the army would be as stupid as to have these martyrdom seekers attack their own GHQ. I think this was a bona-fide terrorist attack. Its a huge embarrassment for the army that they got into even the outer buildings of GHQ. Still, once they had been embarrassed, the army did take the risk of having the hostages killed and went for an early commando raid and as such raids go, they seem to have succeeded.
I think the more important thing is to notice that the person leading the terrorists is supposed to be the same SOB who attacked the Sri-lankan cricket team in April. Why was he still at large? renting houses, arranging white vans with army license plates, getting terrorists in place for a well planned raid? This is not a good reflection on the state of law enforcement and anti-terrorist operations in the country.
Also, this is old news for many of us, but worth pointing out that this jihadi terrorist, like all the others now being hunted or asked to go to Indian Kashmir ASAP, was initially trained by our own blessed intelligence agencies and their pet proxies. And he and his ilk are able to survive until today because parts of the jihadi infrastructure (supporters, sympathizers, financiers, facilitators) share space with "India-specific terrorists" and still do not face a situation where the entire network is under attack from the state. More important, the educated public in Pakistan is still confused about what is going on. The army's powerful psyops operation is very quick to manufacture outrage about Hussain Haqqani or Asif Zardari, but has not made a systematic effort to disown and attack the armed jihadis. Their patrons (like Hameed Gul and company) and bull#### artists like Ahmed Qureshi and Zaid Hamid are still being invited on the media to cloud the issue with conspiracy theories about Indian hand and American embassy staffers and their cars. This is a very serious handicap because it means that "moderate islamists" (a large constituency in educated Pakistan) and ordinarly Pakistanis in general are still not clear about who the enemy is. Without the cooperation of the general public, no anti-terrorist campaign can succeed.
Having said that, I would also add that I continue to believe that the longer term trend is clearly against the jihadis. There is just no way that the "settled areas" of Pakistan will opt for taliban style rule. The hardcore jihadi enterprise is not compatible with survival in the modern world and will eventually be confined to places like Waziristan and isolated small groups (the islamist equivalent of the Baader Meinhof gang and the Red brigades). All the above comments are part of the messy mechanism of getting from the age of Hameed Gul and General Mahmud to the age of co-existence with India and the modern world.
Omar

[davidbfpo]

Omar,

I do not hold with many conspiracy theories and in this case find it hard to imagine even the most deluded Pakistani Army officer would do this thinking it helped the causes of the Army, even ISI.

Given the capabilities and intentions of the three groups forming the militant opposition (Pakistani Taleban, LeT and South Punjabi groups) such an attack is clearly possible. What I do wonder about is the selection of such a target, who choses them? The Lahore attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team shows a strategic, maybe tactical acumen not normally seen. On reflection after Mumbai, maybe we should have learnt they will attack for maximim imagery impact.

After the UN suicide bomber attack in Islamabad, reportedly by a Frontier Corps dressed individual, it is time for Pakistan and others to re-think their most vulnerable targets.

davidbfpo

[omarali50]

Omar,

I do not hold with many conspiracy theories and in this case find it hard to imagine even the most deluded Pakistani Army officer would do this thinking it helped the causes of the Army, even ISI.

...After the UN suicide bomber attack in Islamabad, reportedly by a Frontier Corps dressed individual, it is time for Pakistan and others to re-think their most vulnerable targets.

davidbfpo

I dont hold with the conspiracy theory either, maybe that was not clear from my post. About target selection, I think the number of possible high impact targets is so great that just increasing security at particular sites is not going to work (though its important in its own place). The real issue is to go after the heads of the network. Spontaneous jihadis are an overrated threat, the only serious threat is from organized networks. These are professionals, they have all been trained using the same CIA field manual the UNiversity of Nebraska so helpfully translated into Urdu and Pushto. If the Pakistani army actually manages to attack them in Waziristan, their effectiveness will decrease and new recruitment in Pakistan will become much harder for them. Without a base, they will gradually be wiped out, with a base they can always find replacements for any particular individual who is knocked out.

[omarali50]

There were multiple terrorist attacks across Pakistan today. I posted the following comment on my email group this morning and thought it may be of interest to some people here:
I just spoke with some friends in Lahore and they (and according to them, "everyone in Lahore") were convinced that these attacks were carried out on American instructions. The argument was that the US wants Pakistan in turmoil so it can get them to launch an operation against the very people America is using to create turmoil so that those same people can be attacked by the Pak army..I know. My jaw dropped as well.
OR, its doing this to sell them weapons. or steal the nuclear bomb. Or build a gas pipeline. or raise Obama's poll numbers. or just because its America and America does evil things. or something, no one really knows for sure. I was also told that "the army has reported that some madressas in Rajanpur got funding in dollars. The conclusion is obvious"? Naturally, I was speechless. Ahmed Qureshi and Zaid Hamid have done their job all too well, the army apparently cannot now convince the people to fight the jihadis EVEN IF IT WANTED TO. Aap apney jaal mein Sayyad aa gaya...
No fiction writer could ever have written this and got away with it. Indeed, truth is stranger than fiction.
btw, does anyone have any information about who is funding Ahmed Qureshi and company? Is ISI still employing them or are they free-lance now? When the history of this time is written, the role played by professional gnerators of conspiracy theories will be studied and historians will wonder how so few could confuse so many for so long. (and of course, even the paranoid have enemies, so I am not saying ALL the conspiracy theories are incorrect).
The ruling elite (and their American and Saudi and now Chinese partners) has spent 50 years manipulating things from behind the scenes. By now, the trust level in society (in these matters) is so low, the army cannot fix its own mess. If I was not from Lahore, I would sit back with my bag of popcorn and my diet coke and watch this #### go down on live TV. But I cant. I am afraid that a situation worse than Algeria might be coming down the pike, and we are less prepared for it than the Algerians were. Some of the pathologies are similar (corrupt elite, unjust system, post-colonial schizophrenic culture, rebels who have picked a particularly vicious ideology to express their hatred of this awful elite) and some are even worse (no history of common liberation struggle, greater penetration of Saudi influence, partition and its unique pathologies, much larger population, more ungoverned areas, lack of credible political leadership). This is not looking good.

[slapout9]

If I was not from Lahore, I would sit back with my bag of popcorn and my diet coke and watch this #### go down on live TV. But I cant. I am afraid that a situation worse than Algeria might be coming down the pike, and we are less prepared for it than the Algerians were. Some of the pathologies are similar (corrupt elite, unjust system, post-colonial schizophrenic culture, rebels who have picked a particularly vicious ideology to express their hatred of this awful elite) and some are even worse (no history of common liberation struggle, greater penetration of Saudi influence, partition and its unique pathologies, much larger population, more ungoverned areas, lack of credible political leadership). This is not looking good.

Omarali, keep us up to date I enjoy reading your reports. I saw a TV news report tonight about Lahore and 2 other attacks they were supposedly conducted all at about the same time. If that is correct that shows a high degree of coordination for all the attacks. What is your opinion on this?

[omarali50]

If you go to this link and scroll down the comments, you can see a discussion about the ongoing war in Pakistan (I am a participant and have the longest final comment, so this is also a plug). I thought some of you may be interested.

http://www.chapatimystery.com/archiv...comment-158346

also check out Pakistani blogger Hakim Hazik's latest at

http://justicedeniedpk.com/JDP/post/....aspx#continue

[Jedburgh]

JSOU, Dec 09: Pakistan’s Security Paradox: Countering and Fomenting Insurgencies

Most American and Pakistani political and military leaders agree that without a credible U.S.-Pakistan partnership, victory against Taliban and Al Qaeda is impossible. For such a partnership, shared goals must be matched by shared threats, and perceptions must follow demonstrable action. Washington and Islamabad agree that Al Qaeda must be defeated. Pakistan’s national security calculus—based on India’s influence in Afghanistan—however, treats Afghan Taliban as leverage and Pakistani Taliban as enemies of the state. Consequently, Afghan Taliban are provided asylum in Pakistan while they wreak havoc in Afghanistan, and Pakistani Taliban are attacked. While Pakistan has countered and fomented numerous insurgencies, this is the first time that it has done both to achieve its national security goals. This dual policy and disconnect between American and Pakistani threat perceptions is at the heart of Pakistan’s security paradox. Pakistan continues to indirectly counter (COIN) and foment (FOIN) insurgency in Afghanistan. Without acknowledging, explicating, and eventually changing this paradox, Afghanistan and Pakistan will continue to descent into chaos.....

[omarali50]

http://wichaar.com/news/294/ARTICLE/...010-01-06.html

Dr. Manzur Ejaz's opinion piece above, in which he has unequivocally stated that the army-jihadi nexus is history and all jihadi parties will gradually be eliminated by the armed forces. An unstated corrollary of this hypothesis is that the state will actually survive and stabilize and all the "worst case scenarios" will fail to materialize.

I tend to agree with Dr. Ejaz. I think the army has no choice. It was a terrible mistake to create free standing armies of jihadis in the first place (what sane state has ever done that? what were they thinking when dozens of training camps were being set up all across the country and Masood Azhar and company were going around with escorts of armed men on pickup trucks? what was the plan? I already know the answer: there was no plan in the mind of the "secular" morons like Musharraf. They were just being their usual idiotic selves and were being made total fools by the jihadis like General Mahmud and General Gul and so on. But I ask the question to encourage all of you to spend a few minutes thinking about this. WTF was the army thinking and doesnt this deserve a real inquiry and several court martials?). But by now, even our generals must have realized what a mess they have made and know that this is not sustainable.
I also think the arguments presented by many educated people in Pakistan (all this is an American plot, Islam is in danger, Jewish-Hindu plot) reflects the (carefully manufactured) confusion of the chattering classes and not a systematic analysis of the facts on the ground.
But I also think that these confused statements (blaming the jihadis, General Zia, the CIA and everyone else in almost mutually exclusive theories) are an indication of what a tremendous job lies ahead of the army high command and how poorly they have managed the "information war" until now. Once again, I think the explanation has less to do with any clever scheme of having their jihad and eating it too, and more to do with the limited abilities of the high command and their desire to avoid (at all costs, even the cost of efficient handling of the war on terror) any discussion of how they created this mess and who the enemy is. Instead, they prefer to keep people confused with CIA-Jew-Freemason-Hindu conspiracies and any other story that comes to mind...anything but the truth that their own creations have brought Pakistan to this pass. The other driver behind this nonsense is their desire to hold on to "the commanding heights" of the state, even if they have to imperil the functioning of national institutions in a time of war to do so. On this, I differ with Dr. Ejaz, who beleives the army is actually trying to strengthen civilian institutions to save the state. I think he underestimates how totally the PMA mindset hates civilian politics and politicians and how exalted an opinion they have of their own ability to run everything from credit rating agencies to the railways.
I would make an analogy with the US civil war. A Dr. Ejaz in 1861 would have confidently predicted (on the basis of rational analysis of economic realities and the direction of historical trends) that the North was going to win the civil war and the Union would be preserved. Not only that, slavery would be abolished and the entire slave-owning economy overhauled and converted to more modern lines. That is exactly what eventually happened. But this 1861 Dr. Ejaz may not have known how close fought the thing would be, how long and hard the war would turn out to be, how terrible a slaughter it would cause...and even this imaginary Dr. Ejaz might have had second thoughts about his predictions when Lee was marching around Pennsylvania.....I think we are in for some very bad times in Pakistan as well.

[omarali50]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english201...c_13321818.htm

Terrorists (almost certainly Punjabi Taliban) simultaneously attacked two Ahmedi sect mosques in Lahore during Friday prayers and killed over 80 people.
My first comments:
1. The choice of target is easy to understand. Ahmedis are a persecuted and vilified minority in Pakistan and "mainstream" news organizations feel no compunction about attacking them, so the ground is already prepared. e.g. GEO TV's religion presenter Amir Liaqat Hussain, a former minister under the buffoon Musharraf, encouraged people to kill them if they "overstepped their bounds" and an Ahmedi doctor was promptly killed; there was some fuss in the liberal press but Hussain is still on TV and writes a particularly vicious column in a major newspaper.
2. The day is also significant. its the anniversary of Pakistan's nuclear explosion and is a national day of jingoism, so appropriate for such an action.
3. There will be talk of stepped up security and other such BS, but the fact is that such terrorism is unstoppable until you get at the head. There is an infrastructure of support and guidance and its known to everyone in Pakistan, but decisive action is difficult because:
A. The army set up and protected this monster and knows better than anyone how big the operation is. Even if some of the top brass now want to proceed against them, they would prefer to do so slowly and in small increments. That also ensures a long-term American GWOT subsidy, so go-slow is a win-win situation for the top brass.
B. Because the army does not like to admit mistakes, it has never really let the general public know that mistakes were made and enemies within were created by the blessed armed forces themselves. So they rely on the narrative of "foreign hand" and "Indian-zionist agents" rather heavily. This means the "information war" is a total mess and the general public (whose cooperation is essential for any counter-insurgency) remains confused about who is fighting whom and for what purpose. Again, the confusion suits the general staff just fine (letting them hang on to some shred of their jihadi bona-fides while slowly fighitng jihadis) but is not helpful to anyone else.
C. Several decades of jihadist propaganda (nurtured officially) has created a significant jihadist constituency in the educated classes. What the Marxists of yore would call the "class interests" of this segment force them to be anti-jihadi (those "class interests" being intertwined with a capitalist global economy and the modern world in general) but their ideological vocabulary is almost entirely Islamist and Jihadist. The resulting cognitive dissonance must give migraines to the American embassy and undermines (but does not stop) the anti-terrorist effort.
D. And ALL THIS is layered on top of the "baseline" level of insurgency one expects in any mismanaged, unequal, unfair, over-populated, under-represented, mis-educated, illiterate, discriminated against third world population (which shows up in the Hindu kingdom of Nepal, the secular republic of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, etc in various forms, from large scale criminality to Maoist insurgencies). Which would be a large enough set of headaches for any country, but thanks to our brilliant general staff, we have added an islamist insurgency on top of it (and of course, the two merge in various creative ways).

My predictions for the future:
1. Very slowly, painfully and very very incompetently, the ruling elite will fight the jihadist insurgency, and some of them will get very rich doing so.
2. The baseline "Maoist" component of the insurgency could potentially have grown into a serious problem, but Islamism will coopt all other grievances and will save the ruling elite in the long run because they are so insane, the corrupt and vicious ruling elite will look better by comparison.
3. More of the same for many years to come. But humpty dumpty will not fall because India, China, Iran and America will spend sleepless nights figuring out how to keep humpty together...

[omarali50]

This comment grew up and became the following article:

http://wichaar.com/news/284/ARTICLE/...010-05-29.html

[omarali50]

And now the article got a shave and a haircut and moved on to Outlookindia.com.

At this rate, it will soon dress up in an expensive suit and appear on WSJ...just kidding.

http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?265617

[omarali50]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/05/wo...n.html?_r=2&hp

The killer has a very popular fan page already, at http://www.facebook.com/Malik.Mumtaz.Qadri
I know people are trying to have this page shut down, but I think the page should NOT be shut down. People are not "radicalized" on this page, they come to this page because they are "radicals". let others see them and see what the mindset is really like. Otherwise, we will be forever plagued by Westoxicated liberals whose only frame of reference is postmodern western academia and who only know radical Muslims through the eyes of some professor in Columbia University or Berkeley...little brown children, bravely struggling against the hegemonic discourse of the west or some such...
For background on the blasphemy business, you can see my article at http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...s-to-come.html
Sorry for the rant, but its not a good day.

[omarali50]

My comments and some further discussion are at: http://accidentalblogger.typepad.com...phemyomar.html

[omarali50]

also at http://blogs.outlookindia.com/defaul...10&eid=38#more

[Sarajevo071]

I didn't see any mention of this here. Thought it will be interesting for some.

Sorry if is re-post.

Taliban Ambushes Pakistani Convoy, Seizes 100 Troops

In an audacious display of force, Taliban fighters on Thursday ambushed a convoy of military vehicles in a remote tribal area and took more than 100 Pakistani troops hostage, local officials said.

The convoy of more than a dozen vehicles was traveling between two towns in the South Waziristan area, near the Afghan border, when it was overtaken by fighters, officials said.

"Our group has surrounded and disarmed the convoy of Pakistani soldiers and they have been made hostages," said Zulfiqar Mehsud, a purported Taliban spokesman.

Mehsud, who said the troops had been taken to "our prisons," accused the government of violating a pledge not to send soldiers into the area. He said the Taliban had meticulously planned the ambush.

...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...083001395.html

Confusion over missing Pakistanis

The fate of scores of Pakistani troops missing near the Afghan border is in doubt amid conflicting claims from militants and the army.

Pro-Taleban rebels say they are holding 300 men in South Waziristan after surrounding and disarming them.

The army said no troops were seized, but about 100 men could not move as they were caught up in fighting between militants and pro-government tribesmen.

Reports say frantic talks are going on to secure the men a passage to safety.

...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6973387.stm

Over 200 soldiers in captivity of militants
Colonel, nine other officers among hostages

Some 208 soldiers of the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps are in the custody of tribal militants led by their commander Baitullah Mahsud in South Waziristan Agency, credible sources told The News on Friday.

Despite repeated denials by the government till Friday that the soldiers had been taken hostage, people close to the militants confirmed to The News that the militants had seized 208 security personnel.

The government on Friday sent a 50-member Jirga comprising prominent tribal elders and Ulema from all the three subsections of the Mahsud tribe and people from the 21-member peace committee to the militants to persuade them to release the kidnapped security personnel without any condition.

The militants claimed they had been promised complete withdrawal of security forces from Ladha and other areas inhabited by the Mahsud tribesmen after recent talks between them and the 21-member peace committee and Mahsud tribal grand Jirga under which they had released the 19 kidnapped FC personnel.

“Instead of withdrawal, the government wanted to deploy more troops in the area for likely action against them (militants),” said the sources while quoting tribal militants as saying. They said the militants admitted to have kidnapped all the 208 security personnel and shifted them to their hideouts.

...

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=9870

Govt pushes for talks to get troops freed: ‘Soldiers surrendered without firing a shot’

With the government appearing in disarray over the seizure of more than 150 soldiers in the restive South Waziristan tribal agency, militants on Friday seized in the Frontier Region’s Jandola area four vehicles along with five drivers. The vehicles were carrying rations for security forces.

Though the exact number of missing soldiers was yet to be confirmed, security officials put the number at 156.

However, tribal sources claimed that the number of security personnel held hostage was about 205, including 105 regular troops and 100 personnel of the Frontier Corps. A colonel, three majors and some captains were among the personnel seized by militants.

...

http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/01/top1.htm

[marct]

Thanks Sarajevo! Given how important the area is, getting good information on what's happening there is really important. What is your take on this?

Marc

[Sarajevo071]

You are welcome. I thought maybe it could be important piece of news.

To be honest with you, I have no idea what to think... Or mujahideen there are that strong or Pakistani army is that weak. Or is some kind game/deal. It would be the first time. Seams it was not attack with casualties but rather surrender and grab. Prelude for something else? Musharaf is slowly going down. Maybe he have something in mind?

[Sarajevo071]

Talks on release of kidnapped troops begin

As a tribal jirga went into talks with hostage-takers, the government - changing its earlier position - has held Mehsud tribesmen responsible for the kidnapping of army and paramilitary personnel in the volatile South Waziristan region.

As the number of soldiers in captivity increased to more than 200, government officials alleged local Taliban - led by commander Baitullah Mehsud - were behind the hostage drama. On Friday, the miscreants seized four vehicles carrying rations for security forces along with five drivers in the Jandola area.

About army 205 army and Frontier Corps personnel were being held hostage by the militants, residents claimed, saying a colonel, three majors and four captains were among the captives. The kidnappers accused the authorities of failing to keep its promise of withdrawing troops from the Mehsud-inhabited areas in return for the 19 security men freed earlier in the week.

http://www.pajhwak.com/viewstory.asp?lng=eng&id=42063

[davidbfpo]

I read earlier this week that a party of Frontier Corps (para-military and locally raised troops) had been seized and one has been shown being beheaded by teenagers on video. Then there was a story they had been released.

Nothing like intimidation to stop local troops doing nothing.

Seizing a larger group, almost sounds like a convoy / company sized, with more officers than normal is very different. History shows many Imperial era convoys got seriously damaged when in transit, although I cannot recall a surrender.

Loss of will to resist sounds like the best explanation. Where was the support for them? Was the route picqueted?

Not a good sign for the national Pakistan government and should lead to the Army thinking hard - what happened?

davidbfpo

[Sarajevo071]

Release of 100 soldiers likely today
Troops vacate two South Waziristan posts, to withdraw from third today

The Pakistan Army pulled out from two of the three posts in the restive South Waziristan Agency after days of negotiations with the tribal militants, thus, paving the way for the release of around 300 security personnel held captive by the militants, a tribal Jirga disclosed on Tuesday.

All the three posts are located in the Mahsud-inhabited tribal territory. According to the Jirga sources, after vacating the two strategic posts, the tribal militants led by Commander Baitullah Mahsud would fulfill their commitment on phased release of the held soldiers. In the first phase, the militants were to release around 100 soldiers either on Tuesday night or today (Wednesday).

When contacted on phone, Director General Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Maj Gen Waheed Arshad told The News that troops were not deployed at the two posts mentioned by the Jirga members. He, however, said that from one of those posts, the forces were relocated which often takes place in the region according to requirements.
...

http://www.leemedia.net/links.php?ur...l.asp?Id=10191