Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/17/wo..._r=1&th&emc=th

Once in a while even the NEW YORK TIMES gets it's facts straught.

The future of Swat the NYT suggests is a consolidated base for both the Taliban and al Qaida.

I agree with the TIMES in this article where they basically assess "excuses" being made by the Pak government as a pack of lies.

Moved here by davidbfpo and originally by George S.

[Bob's World]

This is complicated, so the one caution that I would throw out to all is to neither assess this as a "loss" for the Government of Pakistan, nor as a "victory" for the Taliban. Both of those entities are made up of segments of the populace of Pakistan, which so far as been the big loser in this competition for their support.

I think the last two paragraphs are the most telling:

“The hardest task for the government will be to protect the Punjab against inroads by militants,” wrote I. A. Rehman, a member of the Human Rights Commission, in the daily newspaper, Dawn.

“Already, religious extremists have strong bases across the province and sympathizers in all arenas: political parties, services, the judiciary, the middle class, and even the media,” he wrote. “For its part, the government is handicapped because of its failure to offer good governance, guarantee livelihoods, and restore people’s faith in the frayed judicial system.”


The fact is, that there is only insurgency in Pakistan of this strength due to the enduring failure of the government of Pakistan to provide good governance (how the governance is perceived by the populace, not how effective it is assessed to be by itself or outsiders). I also contend that a government can not appease its own populace, that appeasement is when one makes concessions to an outside government at the expense of their own populace.

The real issue is how the Pakis follow up. This should provide some "maneuver space" with the populace that may well allow the government to extend greater security and services into the region. The fact that it is clearly counter to what the U.S. Government would want them to do also lends this move greater credibility with the target populace.

The cries of "Taliban sanctuary" are largely ignorant extremism; because the U.S. has make it very clear that we do not feel constrained in the slightest to conduct strike operations against Taliban and AQ targets in Pakistan. This deal does nothing to change that U.S. perspective.

The U.S. needs to support the Government of Pakistan in this move; helping to ensure that they make the most of the potential opportunities, and not allow this to in fact turn into the bad deal the naysayers are proclaiming it to be from inception.

Personally, and professionally, I am optimistic.

[Piranha]

Reading:

Pakistan Makes a Taliban Truce, Creating a Haven

The government announced Monday that it would accept a system of Islamic law in the Swat valley and agreed to a truce, effectively conceding the area as a Taliban sanctuary and suspending a faltering effort by the army to crush the insurgents.
The concessions to the militants, who now control about 70 percent of the region just 100 miles from the capital, were criticized by Pakistani analysts as a capitulation by a government desperate to stop Taliban abuses and a military embarrassed at losing ground after more than a year of intermittent fighting. About 3,000 Taliban militants have kept 12,000 government troops at bay and terrorized the local population with floggings and the burning of schools.
The accord came less than a week before the first official visit to Washington of the Pakistani army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, to meet Obama administration officials and discuss how Pakistan could improve its tactics against what the American military is now calling an industrial-strength insurgency there of Al Qaeda and the Taliban militants.

Jane Perlez, New York Times

I really get nightmares about what this will mean, let's say to the women in this area.
Perhaps I'm taking this too personally, and should all this 'be looked upon in another way'. I really do want to look at this kind of news in a more reasonable way, so here's an open invitation to share your responses ...

[George L. Singleton]

Greetings and will attempt to offer one old trooper's views to answer some of your open ended question(s):

1. Recent successful drone attacks in other Northern Pakistan provinces and areas have been working and the Taliban wanted a safe have that does not have a common border with Afghanistan. SWAT meets their needs now and they have just managed to combine murder, threat of murder, suicide bombings, and having too many friends in high places in the Pakistani ISI (read that as Intelligence Service) and the upper ranks of the Pakistan Army..who have long been pro-Taliban and pro-al Qaida.

2. Your fears are well founded as this largely pits the Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army against both the new President and new Prime Minister of Pakistan.

3. Now both the Taliban and al Qaida, for the moment at least, feel they are in a safer site, area is about the size of the US State of Delaware, have driven killed and/or driven out about 1/3 of the native Pukhtuns...the invading Taliban are of other subtribes and not native to Swat, and are deeply feared and resented by the differing Pukhtun subtrives inside and native to SWAT.

4. This in league with the terrorists action by the Pak government and Army, largely the Army is pulling these strings of surrender, invites more such capitulations and surrenders to the core of all this religious terrorism, Sharia Law, in other Northern parts of Pakistan.

5. Especially upsetting to me, since I served in the Peshawar and Karachi areas many years ago in our military, is that the capital of all of Pakistan, Islamabad, is not that many miles S-SW of SWAT and is full of radical madrassas itself, in fact, the Red Madrassah had a week long fire fight between the Pak Army and the Taliban teachers and students there in Islamabad about a year ago...which then President Musharraf put his career as President on the line to try to root them out...via the weeklong gunfight.

Your fears are well founded.

ASIDE: My wife and I met some very fine Dutch Special Forces while everyone was touring the Amiercan Cemetery at Normandy, France, summer, 2006. These Dutch were your special forces headed from that military leave weekend straight into Afghanistan. I and we over here appreciate our alliance and long term friendship with the government and all the people of Holland. Thank you to you and to all your countrymen. Colonel George L. Singleton, USAF, Ret.

[J Wolfsberger]

Perhaps because I listen to Radio Netherlands over WRN, I've long been aware of the heroic efforts of the Dutch in Afghanistan. I'm deeply embarrassed at the disparagement of their efforts (as well as the efforts of Canada and Australia) in certain segments of US society. Very few people in the US are aware that, proportionate to the population, the Dutch have suffered as significant a number of casualties as we have.

[Bob's World]

We're getting several threads all going on this same topic, so I will just repost here an alternative viewpoint:

This is complicated, so the one caution that I would throw out to all is to neither assess this as a "loss" for the Government of Pakistan, nor as a "victory" for the Taliban. Both of those entities are made up of segments of the populace of Pakistan, which so far as been the big loser in this competition for their support.

I think the last two paragraphs are the most telling:

“The hardest task for the government will be to protect the Punjab against inroads by militants,” wrote I. A. Rehman, a member of the Human Rights Commission, in the daily newspaper, Dawn.

“Already, religious extremists have strong bases across the province and sympathizers in all arenas: political parties, services, the judiciary, the middle class, and even the media,” he wrote. “For its part, the government is handicapped because of its failure to offer good governance, guarantee livelihoods, and restore people’s faith in the frayed judicial system.”


The fact is, that there is only insurgency in Pakistan of this strength due to the enduring failure of the government of Pakistan to provide good governance (how the governance is perceived by the populace, not how effective it is assessed to be by itself or outsiders). I also contend that a government can not appease its own populace, that appeasement is when one makes concessions to an outside government at the expense of their own populace.

The real issue is how the Pakis follow up. This should provide some "maneuver space" with the populace that may well allow the government to extend greater security and services into the region. The fact that it is clearly counter to what the U.S. Government would want them to do also lends this move greater credibility with the target populace.

The cries of "Taliban sanctuary" are largely ignorant extremism; because the U.S. has make it very clear that we do not feel constrained in the slightest to conduct strike operations against Taliban and AQ targets in Pakistan. This deal does nothing to change that U.S. perspective.

The U.S. needs to support the Government of Pakistan in this move; helping to ensure that they make the most of the potential opportunities, and not allow this to in fact turn into the bad deal the naysayers are proclaiming it to be from inception.

Personally, and professionally, I am optimistic.
__________________

[George L. Singleton]

and great links (especially the third); but this seems more of a life's work - very complex.

The general concepts in the Pashtun tribal structure are very familiar to me. This looks very much like the Gaelic Irish structure ca. 1100 - and to a lesser extent, the fused Gaelic Irish and Norman-Welsh structures that existed from ca. 1200 to 1600.

For example, the Pashtun kohols unit, explained here from the third of your links, based on gg-grandfather down, is much the same as the Gaelic Irish extended family structure under Brehon Law.

The Gaelic Irish structure was very much cross-linked (horizontally and vertically), but with a much smaller population. Suffice to say that the wrong step in one house could bring 100s of houses down on your head.

The Pashtun structure (as in the Irish based on genealogies, whether mythical or factual) has to be an order or two of magnitude more complex.

Perhaps, we should have a new MOS - genealogical officer in charge.

JMM, I nominate you openly on the SWJ to be our Geneological Officer in Charge. This said from this old Irishman to you as another younger Irishman.

Glad you like the sites I found of various levels of Pukhtun tribes, subtribes, etc. in this ongoing posting. Reading it up to a point once found gave me a huge headache and general dizzy feeling.

George

[jmm99]

from GLS
JMM, I nominate you openly on the SWJ to be our Geneological Officer in Charge.

totally beyond my kin, my ken and my kith - but thanks for the thought.

Having said that, I hope there is someone in our command structure who is able to understand this item from post # 7 of the blog you cite above ...

Originally Posted by Batoor
Penjperies have very strong association with ISI.

Yes! Major Muhammad Aamir who is the son of Maulana Tahir,the founder of this sect is a well known retired Army officer & he was the head during mid-night Jakal operation ... now his elder brother Maulana Tayyeb is the head of this sect.

and to apply whatever measures are required to meet the challenge of the Penjperies - whoever they are.

[George L. Singleton]

When now retired four star General Fred Franks was a Brigadier they "created" a JCS-9 slot for him, which was a sort of catch all for goofy things like this tribal lineage stuff, among lesser on paper duties as best I can recall, that was back in 1990.

For details see: http://www.jfcom.mil/about/abt_j9.htm

[George L. Singleton]

Thanks for your input Bob, which I read earlier vs. a posting of mine which DAVIDBFOP "kidnapped" in the wee hours our time, mid-moring London time, today.

My posting, which is fine, is now under David's banner but he gives me credit in the last line of my last paragraph.

David, I hope you appreciate my wry Irish sense of humor. My other ancient clans are English and Welch, so I am only half Irish, but that is enough to make me dangerous you know!

Bob, you may want to review my around 50 published letters in the Karachi DAWN through end of 2008 to see in part where I am coming from regarding Pakistan.

We do disagree as this surrender of SWAT at this time is based on my tracking of this mess ever since 9/11 a huge turning point for the worse. My opinion, but the indiginous folks over there telling me this right and left without me asking what they think. It is in letters daily in the Peshawar FRONTIER POST, which I treat as more relevant to NWFP topics vs. the DAWN, which is more of a Punjabi based English press, FP being Pukhtun family owned and managed. Etc.

Grim news to me and to those over there.

I have numerous e-mails dating back the past 18 months from those inside SWAT begging for US/UN ground forces intervention, which of course I don't favor but where else logically could these oppressed Pukhtuns think to turn, as their doubts of the Pak Army again and again are correct! The Pakistani top Army flag ranks sell out the locals/Pukhtuns over and over.

Does anyone remember the last throws of Musharraf's Presidencey? Treaty or treaties of peace with the Taliban which the Taliban broke within two weeks.

Does anyone remember early actions of the new President and Prime Minister of Pakistan? Treaties again in the frontier areas of Pakistan on the Afghan border which the Taliban again broke within weeks.

To those over there, their views to me, which repeat in summary here, these so called jiirgas and treaties are gifts of time to resupply, reform, and attack across the border into Afghanistan and to continue internal within N. Pakistan attacks against native Pukhtuns there.

This is not what I want to say, it is what thePukhtun and other tribes which are not Puktuns but minority locals are saying to me, over and over, in pretty gorry stories.

[George L. Singleton]

Slain Pak TV reporter had 32 bullet wounds


Thursday, 19 February , 2009, 12:19

Islamabad: Thirty two bullets were pumped into TV reporter Musa Khan Khel in Pakistan's Swat Valley two days after Islamabad allowed the Taliban to impose Shariat (Islamic law) in the area, said Geo News executive editor Hamid Mir, adding a lot of radicals were unhappy with his coverage but "truth has to be reported".

Complete story ate below Internet site of murder of Pakistani local news reporter at site of so-called "Peace March" in Swat yesterday. Some way the Taliban observe "peace" there.

http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/

[Piranha]

Thanks for the well-informed supportive messages, as well as for the compliments to our Special Forces men. Perhaps I shouldn't be having nightmares, being angry is the better response ... 'shoulder-to-shoulder' ...

[George L. Singleton]

You are most welcome for acknowledging our replies to you.

Today you might be interested to know that:

1. The Presdident of Pakistan has yet to sign the treaty with the Taliban in Swat, and

2. likewise, the leadership of the Taliban also have not signed, either.

Pak President says (if this is dependable, who knows?) he will not sign until or unless all hostilites in Swat cease on the part of the Taliban. This, if a true statement by the Pak President, then means a signed treaty of peace is not, repeat not, likely with the Taliban, as these terrorist Pukhtuns are violent by daily nature and cannot control each other, ever. Discipline is not their "strong suit."

Have a good weekend.

George L. Singleton, Colonel, USAF, Ret.
Formerly of US Air Base at Badaber, nearby Peshawar,
Pakistan, and old US Embassy then in Karachi, Paksitan.

[Piranha]

US ‘troubled and confused’ about sharia deal: Holbrooke

Anwar Iqbal

Friday, 20 Feb, 2009 | 12:22 AM PST |

WASHINGTON: The United States was not sure if the Pakistani military and ISI backed President Asif Ali Zardari’s commitment to eradicate terrorist sanctuaries from the NWFP, the US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan said on Thursday.

Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, in his first media interview since he returned from a fact-finding mission to South Asia earlier this week, said this issue ‘will be pursued at very high levels’ in US-Pakistan talks scheduled in Washington next week.

Ambassador Holbrooke also linked this week’s peace agreement in Swat to the military’s reluctance to support President Zardari’s anti-terrorism policies and said the US was ‘troubled and confused’ about this deal.

Unlike her special envoy, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appeared more willing to give Pakistan a chance to explain how and why it concluded a deal with the militants in Swat.....

http://dawn.net/wps/wcm/connect/Dawn...-holbrooke--bi


Copyright © 2009 - Dawn Media Group

[davidbfpo]

A first-hand report by The (London) Times to the valley: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5780438.ece

Grim reading.

davidbfpo

[Piranha]

Sigh.

Thanks for sharing this Davidbfpo, grim reading indeed.

[George L. Singleton]

A first-hand report by The (London) Times to the valley: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5780438.ece

Grim reading.

davidbfpo

David et al:

This article epitomizes in part the desperate interpersonal e-mails I have been getting for over two years out of Swat now. The anti-Taliban/anti-al Qaida good people get my e-mail address from often printed letters to the editor from and by me in the Peshawar FRONTIER POST and I am of course careful/they ask me to be so, not to disclose their e-mail addresses as they say for sure it would lead to their murder by the Taliban/al Qaida.

Driving wedges among and between the Taliban and al Qaida, who are all Sunnis, should not be so hard, as the Taliban who write and have "their" letters published in the FRONTIER POST or who allow the FP to do telephone interviews with them...and those Taliban who write, in English and in Pushto, on Global Hujra Online...in general do not, repeat don't like "Arabs" who many Pukhtuns, both Taliban and non-Taliban alike, view as much as "invaders" as we are allegedly so viewed.

Up until now al Qaida has relied on and used the fact of in common Muslim Sunni belief and customs to seek and claim shelter and safe harbor. This is a topic that needs hard work to crack that "fellow Muslim" hospiality nut. It won't be easy as he damned Taliban tolerated al Qaida to the point to being tossed out of power by force by us!

[George L. Singleton]

There is more than a little intereting reading here...Darmand is an Afghan Pukhtun, but most of the other comments come from Pakistani Pukhtuns inside Swat, in the Peshwar area, and from Pukhtuns living in Europe.

SIDE NOTE BY GEORGE: Many of the Pukhtuns in Afdghanistan and in Pakistan are of the same families and tribes, as most of you already know.

There are some interestisng topical cross links, too.

http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...60874post60874

On balance, IF one used these postings you have to conclude that the majority of Pukhtuns from and in Swat hate the Taliban and are desperate as in they don't know what to do?

FYI.

[Piranha]

Thank you once again Mr. Singleton.

To you and everyone reading along,

About 15 years ago I was in contact with a Sufi group in my own country, which was and is very much involved in interfaith dialogue. Whenever I wanted to share in their dhikr-meetings, I could count on the hospitality of one of their members afterwards.

One time their leader told me something that imho is worth sharing with you all: "Bad people have no problems finding each other doing bad things, that's a real problem, but perhaps an even bigger problem is that we good people are sometimes so critical of one another that it prevents us from doing that many good things that this might be a counter-weight."

We need every ally we can get.

[davidbfpo]

Another report on the valley, citing an expatriate resident who runs a local radio station: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...at-valley.html

Adds in other commentary.

davidbfpo