Strategic vignette

[Fuchs]

Scenario:
You are being hired by a merc company that works for your country's intelligence service.

The problem:
Indigenous criminals terrorize and maraud in a Latin American valley.
An energy corporation from your country wants to set up a lucrative palladium mining business in this valley and asked your government to clean the mess up first.

The mission:
Solve the organized crime problem to the extent that the mining business won't be affected. Success expected in six months.

The enemy:
A homeless youth gang, mostly known for domestic drug business, arson and random violent crimes.
A protection money and drug export gang with firearms and stolen explosives (from mines).
A rumoured corruption network run by a pre-existing competing mining company.
Possible opposition by corrupt policemen and mining company guards.

Your resources:
10,000 USD/week, plus four retired senior NCOs from your country (two with combat experience, two with mostly support experience). Four one-way flight tickets. A two-hour briefing at the embassy.

The terrain:
A valley, mostly with potato fields. A small polluted river separates both valley halves. Few and weak (enough for a truck) bridges. Small forests. Larger settlements mostly in favela style, smaller villages in rural style.

The civilians:
Many illiterates, qualitative malnourished, few rich families with traditional claims to power, many poor families, a tiny middle class of clerks. 30% unemployment, 30% under-employment. 100% conservative Catholics. Traditional drug abuse is significant. Everyone can speak Spanish.



Your turn.

[Abu Suleyman]

Well, last time this happened, what we did... I mean ... uh...

[Surferbeetle]

Eine interesante problem. Ich will mehr lernen: was wissen wir von der Polizei, die Wirtschaft, und die Regierung, in dieser platz?

It's an interesting problem, and I would like to learn more: what do we know about security/police, economics, and governance?

Who has mined in this area before and what is the associated history with that operation? Is this a reputable company and if so how long is this operation projected to last for? What's the plan for mine waste?

1) What’s the ratio of police to inhabitants, how are they armed and supplied, how are they trained, are they drawn from this town, are they regularly paid, and how are they perceived?
2) What loads are the roads and bridges rated for, where is the nearest airport/port, what is known about hydroelectric/thermal power generation/transmission/distribution, how many nearby hotels & restaurants, what about fuel & repair sites? What's the river polluted with? How deep to groundwater (what are the results of groundwater testing)?
3) What Government arm supports this effort? How effective is the Alcalde, how large is his staff, what are his current concerns and priorities? What about Rule of Law infrastructure/human capital? Where is the nearest church? What political parties work in the area? Is German Agro Action working this area? Where is the nearest clinic? Where is the nearest school? Is there a radio station?

Can I see a copy of the business plan? What’s my share of the mining operations gross take again?

[Rex Brynen]

Can I see a copy of the business plan? What’s my share of the mining operations gross take again?

Yes, I wondered about that one, not to mention wondering what my country's intelligence service was doing hiring mercenaries to solve criminal problems in another country for a MNC. Or is the mercenary company just boasting of its connections, and has been hired by the MNC (which would make a lot more sense)?

If the IC is directly involved in this, I'll reserve my seats now for the parliamentary (or Congressional) inquiry

[Schmedlap]

I thought Executive Outcomes went out of business.

[Fuchs]

I designed it with an intent, I'll disclose that later.
There's enough relevant info for my purpose.

About further details: Live with uncertainty, and don't expect to know everything in advance. To assume otherwise would be unrealistic.

[slapout9]

Here is a picture of the 4 man group that will save the country X.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWGeRgFa-hI

[Ron Humphrey]

Scenario:
You are being hired by a merc company that works for your country's intelligence service.

The problem:
Indigenous criminals terrorize and maraud in a Latin American valley.
An energy corporation from your country wants to set up a lucrative palladium mining business in this valley and asked your government to clean the mess up first.

The mission:
Solve the organized crime problem to the extent that the mining business won't be affected. Success expected in six months.

The enemy:
A homeless youth gang, mostly known for domestic drug business, arson and random violent crimes.
A protection money and drug export gang with firearms and stolen explosives (from mines).
A rumoured corruption network run by a pre-existing competing mining company.
Possible opposition by corrupt policemen and mining company guards.

Your resources:
10,000 USD/week, plus four retired senior NCOs from your country (two with combat experience, two with mostly support experience). Four one-way flight tickets. A two-hour briefing at the embassy.

The terrain:
A valley, mostly with potato fields. A small polluted river separates both valley halves. Few and weak (enough for a truck) bridges. Small forests. Larger settlements mostly in favela style, smaller villages in rural style.

The civilians:
Many illiterates, qualitative malnourished, few rich families with traditional claims to power, many poor families, a tiny middle class of clerks. 30% unemployment, 30% under-employment. 100% conservative Catholics. Traditional drug abuse is significant. Everyone can speak Spanish.



Your turn.

Send a group in first with lots of money and start buying local loyalty to the extent possible.

Take time( approx 3 months) to build up information on all local dynamics and players.
Begin talks privately with gov officials about which "law breakers" they're looking for and get set to turn the info over to gov when you're ready to.

Use the extortion groups paid guarantees to build what you need built and pay the young gangsters well to build it.

Look for those who have shown the most promise in leadership and probable long term stability to last and turn all the rest of them over to the gov to do with as they please.

Pay those left well and spend the next month or so consolidating any developmental cycles you established

Month six fly to Tahiti and sleep well and wealthy since you apparently have no conscience or ethics but you did finish the job as requested.


Back to you .

[Bob's World]

Nothing strategic about this vignette. (i.e., you sucked me in with false advertising)

But I suspect you could buy these guys off well less than your $10 K/week budget. This is first a business transaction. If that fails, then consider other options.

[Fuchs]

Well, it's an isolated problem, not part of a greater mess. The solution would therefore be about the whole; "strategic".

Anyway, I don't see yet how bribes in themselves would have lasting effect.

Ron's solution looks to me a bit as if the opponent(s) were static targets.
Lucky boy if that's part of his interpretation's details, I'm a bit less optimistic.

[Ron Humphrey]

Well, it's an isolated problem, not part of a greater mess. The solution would therefore be about the whole; "strategic".

Anyway, I don't see yet how bribes in themselves would have lasting effect.

Ron's solution looks to me a bit as if the opponent(s) were static targets.
Lucky boy if that's part of his interpretation's details, I'm a bit less optimistic.

and theres always the whole bit to bite ya in the backside

You'll recall when others mentioned the "details" part you wanted to stick to the basics

Anywho, As to your original case you have to admit from the perspective of one merely being hired to get the mine running productively and fairly securely the Whole might be considered by the hired help to be someone elses problem

[Surferbeetle]

Here is a picture of the 4 man group that will save the country X.

Well at least Spock is on the team!

[bourbon]

Anyway, I don't see yet how bribes in themselves would have lasting effect.

In the short term it allows you to get the mining project off the ground, which will improve the employment problem in the region which in turn effects the gang issue.

Plus foreign bribery is a tax deduction for some European countries, I believe.

[Stan]

Well at least Spock is on the team!

Hey Steve,
I was just about to say the same thing

[William F. Owen]

[
The mission:
Solve the organized crime problem to the extent that the mining business won't be affected. Success expected in six months.

A.) I think I want four highly experienced "Anti-gang" police officers, not 4 NCOs.

B.) I think I'd want to know what is the minimum level of security/level of risk, the mining business is prepared to accept. I mean success here is someone making money by mining. Success here is not stopping the violence, if it can't stop the mining, or make it cost too much?

Am I getting it?

[kaur]

Fuchs, you should find man (what ever title he has) who has enough resources to enforce tolerable level of security in the valley. You should ask what he asks for this favor and you must bargain. I think this is too much to start rebuilding the society. Do you need this? I doubt. Your task is like US task in Afganistan in the autumn 2001.

[Surferbeetle]

From RAND, by: William Rosenau, Peter Chalk, Renny McPherson, Michelle Parker, Austin Long : Corporations and Counterinsurgency

Like nongovernmental organizations and private military companies, large multinational corporations (MNCs) can play significant roles in zones of violent conflict. Any comprehensive conflict analysis needs to understand these roles, especially as they relate to counterinsurgency. Using a set of three case studies, the authors explore MNC operations in Liberia, Papua New Guinea, and the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The case studies highlight the activities of the MNCs that were intended to shape their violent environment and protect their infrastructure and personnel. Policymakers may be tempted to leverage corporate activities. However, corporate actions, no matter how well intentioned, can have less-than-benign consequences. Moreover, any potential “subcontracting” to MNCs would raise questions about accountability, legitimacy, and state responsibilities.

Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, World Bank Group

Investors and lenders in today's dynamic investment climate understand the potential benefits of investing in emerging markets. The even smarter ones also understand the critical importance of addressing the political risks that may accompany an investment in an untested environment. MIGA can help investors and lenders deal with these risks by insuring eligible projects against losses relating to:

* Currency transfer restrictions
* Expropriation
* War and civil disturbance
* Breach of contract

Hey Stan,

Been watching this one (and the Austrian Banks) as well...

From BusinessWeek by S. Adam Cardais: Ukraine Must Reform to Tap EU Energy Aid

The European Union, which receives most of its Russian natural gas imports via Ukrainian pipelines, is trying to prevent the next in what's becoming the annual Moscow/Kyiv gas standoff, one that last year left much of Europe with energy shortages in January. Backed by the EU, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and other international banks have laid out an approximately $1.7 billion aid package to help Ukraine pay for gas supplies during a recession that saw its GDP fall 18 percent last quarter year-on-year, and reform its domestic natural gas market to prevent future crises.

[slapout9]

Fuchs, you should find man (what ever title he has) who has enough resources to enforce tolerable level of security in the valley. You should ask what he asks for this favor and you must bargain. I think this is too much to start rebuilding the society. Do you need this? I doubt. Your task is like US task in Afganistan in the autumn 2001.

Sounds like a pretty good plan to me.

[Rex Brynen]

Fuchs, you should find man (what ever title he has) who has enough resources to enforce tolerable level of security in the valley. You should ask what he asks for this favor and you must bargain. I think this is too much to start rebuilding the society. Do you need this? I doubt. Your task is like US task in Afganistan in the autumn 2001.

I'm not sure it is anything like the US task in Afghanistan, to be honest. There (rightly or wrongly) the US is trying to build the long-term legitimacy and stability of the central government, including by trying to reduce corruption. In the scenario given here, you're trying to maximize the profits of a private company, possibly by ignoring or undercutting the central government (we're given no information on their attitude to all this) and possibly by using corruption.

Moreover, there's not enough information in the scenario to decide anything at the moment. Leaving aside the rather iffy issue of who exactly one is working for (unclear), we don't know anything about the intended investment, length of anticipated operations, possible labour demand (and economic benefits), the possible environment effects, the attitude and interests of key stakeholders, existing social alliances and patterns of conflict, and so forth. Palladium is typically found alloyed with gold, platinum, nickel and copper deposits, and usually involves mining, separating, and refining many tons of raw ore. There are substantial environmental (and hence social and economic) costs to this, and so the benefit and impact to the local community needs to be thought through in much more detail before the corporate security issues can be approached.

First thing to do, therefore? Ask an awful lot of questions. (Not such a bad idea in COIN operations either.)

[Surferbeetle]

First thing to do, therefore? Ask an awful lot of questions. (Not such a bad idea in COIN operations either.)

Rex,

I am in agreement, although Auftragstaktik has it's time and place, when one commits large amounts of community/organizational resources over significant time periods techniques such as SWOT(Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) VRINE (Value, Rarity, Inimitability, Non-sustainability, Exploitability) Value Chain Analysis, Stakeholder Analysis, Marketing, and all those other detail rich-time intensive methodologies are the proven ones which have helped us to reach those high water marks of 1.426 trillion per year GDP and 14.5 trillion per year GDP. The one-dimensional heuschrecken IO campaign doesn't cover all the nuances of our methods...