"Go Deep" - another plan for Afghanistan

[davidbfpo]

Very good report 'Go Deep' and ties many of the comments previously seen here together.

Curiously there is no mention of the logistic access required for the mission, i.e. use of Karachi port and overland transport truck routes. This is one of the weaknesses of any reinforcement, leaving aside the vulnerability to changes in Pakistani co-operation and attacks.

Nor the attitude of ISAF / NATO partners.

One minor quibble the author comments on a long list of the "usual suspects" with active AQ / terrorist groups and includes Oman. That is a puzzling inclusion as I cannot recall a single incident there, even though there is an Anglo-US (and others) "footprint".

I just hope others way above my pay grade read it too.

davidbfpo

[MikeF]

Enthropy- excellent read.

This piece should be republished as a SWJ article for wider dissimenation.

v/r

Mike

[jmm99]

to the end, where one finds Figure 9. Insurgent concentrations throughout Afghanistan (nice map). It struck me odd that the Soviet Union is located to Astan's North. So, found the source, history-map.com, where:

Here for your perusal is an original map of Afghanistan major insurgent groups. It was created in 1985.

Brought back memories of armchair viewing of our successful effort to bait the Bear. Watching Astan in the 80s was much more pleasant than watching Astan during the last few years.

I'm not competent to critique the military proposals (basically, a Kabul-Bagram enclave; intel and direct action; and FID, as I understand it).

As to the civilian side of the ledger, I read some statements expressing future hopes, but little of substance. The LTC got this right (p.13):

The last time there was effective governance in Afghanistan was the rule of King Zahir Shah who ruled from 1933 until deposed in a coup in 1973. During that 40 years the country was loosely ruled from Kabul, but the issues of day-to-day governance were primarily handled by the local tribes and regions. But given the geographical realities of the country and the near absence of a modern communications or transportation system, this arrangement worked very well.

According to one Afghan citizen I spoke to who lived there during the reign of Zahir Shah, there was a strong sense of peace and security. “We didn’t even have to worry about locking our doors at night,” he told me. But after the King was deposed in the near-bloodless coup in 1973 that brought Daoud Khan to power things began to change.

What he doesn't tell us with any substance is how to change STP's elephant back into the Zahir Shah mouse - credits to Dave Kilcullen for the elephant to mouse story.

Which is saying I pretty much agree with STP. Not to say that whatever comes out of the Obama administration huddle will be any better on the civilian effort. The major media attention has been to the 20K, 40K, 80K troop options.

What would you be doing right now if you were one of the two dozen or so "Northern Alliance" warlords ?

[Steve the Planner]

jmm:

What would you be doing right now if you were one of the two dozen or so "Northern Alliance" warlords?

Trying to partner, broker, co-opt, outflank, or otherwise come to terms with my "colleagues" in order to lay the groundwork for consolidation of power, and ultimate take-over.

Steve

[jmm99]

as well as setting up some secure arms caches; and making sure that all the old muhj are still available and have raised a few sons since 1985. You've already mentioned getting in touch with the cousins in the Stans to the North.

Abdul Rashid Dostum is a real piece of work, isn't he ? But, he (and I expect the others) are definitely survivors.

Now, if the decision is to "Go Big", I'd tend to sit on my big, fat or little, skinny posterior and see what develops.

Cheers

Mike

[Entropy]

Good catch, JMM, that's a major error. That map was produced by the CIA and shows insurgent groups fighting the Soviets, not us.

[Cavguy]

Wow. Great article, I commend it to all. Well written and argued.