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Thread: Iran's Supreme Ruler Rumored to be Dead

  1. #1
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    Default Iran's Supreme Ruler Rumored to be Dead

    I have no idea what to make of this. Just saw it posted at al-Arabiya within the hour...
    Iran's supreme leader rumored to be dead

    The closure of the official website of Iran's supreme leader fueled rumors that have been circulating for the past few days that Ali Khamenei has died after he collapsed last week.

    Further fueling the rumors were the closure of the official websites of Iranís radio and television all of which were not said to have been closed due to technical problems, the London-based Asharq al-Awsat reported Saturday.

    The 70-year-old supreme leader reportedly collapsed last Monday and drifted into a coma but the Iranian media has stayed mum on the issue, which analysts say is because officials are waiting to resolve internal matters and chose a successor.
    This could be huge, if true, especially given the recent Jundallah strike against the IRGC.

  2. #2
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    Guess it was just a rumor.

    Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Muslim countries to support the Palestinians in a meeting with Senegal's president on Sunday.

    State-run media on Sunday carried video and photos of the meeting, which came amid Internet rumors that the 70-year-old Khamenei was in poor health.

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    What I found interesting about this was that it might have provided a window into what would happen. The news reports that discussed his demise talked about President Ahmedinejad meeting with his cabinet to determine a successor (is that really how it is supposed to work?). There were also reports that he updated his will with provisions for how the Republic is to be cared for when he finally croaks, but there was no guidance given on his successor (not sure if he is supposed to have input on that or not).

    Combined with the Jundullah attack upon the IRGC and ongoing trials and controversy stemming from the protests of the rigged election, this makes for some interesting times for the Mullahs.

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    Default Succession in Iran

    In would probably fall to the Guardian Council in consultation with the expediency Discernment council to elect a successor. In all probability it would be Ayatollah Ahmed Janati (the personal marja-e-taqlid/ source of emulation/mentor of Ahmedi-nejad) or OTOH it would be a tense run-off between Janati (supported by Ahmedi-nejad, the IRGC and all the hardline clerics including the Qom establishment) and Ayatollah Rafsanjani (who is supported by former presidetn Khatami and the 11th of Khordad reformist bloc, hence the attempt to smear his and his familiy's name during the recent protests).

    Unfortunately, Jannati founded and belongs to the radical shi'ite Haqqani/Haghani school. Like other Twelevers they belive in the return of the 12th Imam which will herald armageddon/the end of the world/last days, etc. Unlike them the Haqqani school belives that the 12th Imam's return can be hastened or triggered by actually unleashing the armageddon for him!

    As for the President he doesn't actually have very much power in the Iranian system (more akin to a French prime minister even though Iran has a prime minister too!). It makes me laugh when people talk of Ahmedi-nejad's nuclear policy given that nuclear issues are the purview and sole responsibility of the Supreme Leader (via the National Security Counsel).
    Last edited by Tukhachevskii; 10-19-2009 at 12:26 PM. Reason: Failing to pass my English GCSE

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    Default Backgrounder

    I am trying to attach a country players report I did while an intern at an undisclosed risk analysis company in london but can't seem to upload the file due to size...anyone have any suggestions?

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    Default Attachments

    Max file size for doc and pdf files is 195KB; a zip 98KB. Usually, I try to come in under the limits cuz KB calcs differ.

    The only thing I can think of is to break up the file in parts. I know more than one jpg attrachment can be attached in the same post. I haven't tried that with the other types of files.

    Bonne chance

    Mike

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    Default Frustrated neo-luddite

    Can't figure this damn thing out. Converted to MSWord doc- no joy. Rich text format- no joy. If anyone is interested pm me for a copy. Also avaliable are China and Russia. PDF files have picture sections at the rear which is why they probably won't upload. They are probably not even worth it come to think of it. (Never used smilies before, no time like the present I thought! Having said that I am now told I can't have more than Six!!!!)
    Last edited by Tukhachevskii; 10-19-2009 at 07:58 PM. Reason: Wasted my time at "Grammar" School

  9. #9
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tukhachevskii View Post
    I am trying to attach a country players report I did while an intern at an undisclosed risk analysis company in london but can't seem to upload the file due to size...anyone have any suggestions?
    If you did it for them while an intern there, do you hold copyright, or do they?
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


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    Default Copyright

    No, I was never asked to sign a non-disclosure agreement given that I was both unpaid and an intern. The Reports were "executive summaries" of key individuals, parties, government ministries, etc designed to allow the "point of contact" or desk "officer" to be able to quickly answer questions on various issues or people (emanating from their customer base; priviate firms, journalists, etc.) while giving him/her a holistic overview of key players and trajectories. As such they were temporally contextual and date to the latter half of 2008.

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