Sunni Political Participation in Iraq

[Strickland]

Would if be a good thing if Sunnis participated in the government simply as a means to check government progress? Is it possible that Sunnis have simply started participating in an attempt to "check" what they perceive to be a growing Kurdish/Shi'ite block? Is it possible that their inclusion will grid-lock the government?

[Jedburgh]

Would if be a good thing if Sunnis participated in the government simply as a means to check government progress?
No, of course not.

Is it possible that Sunnis have simply started participating in an attempt to "check" what they perceive to be a growing Kurdish/Shi'ite block?
You could word that statment another way: the Sunnis have started participating in order to ensure that that their voices are heard and their interests are taken into consideration. Will that "check" some aspects of what the Shi'a and Kurds are pushing for? Certainly. An example of that is the strained negotiations going on over distribution of oil revenues. But this give-and-take between democratically elected representatives is what representative government is all about.

Is it possible that their inclusion will grid-lock the government?
Sure. But the government is already faction-ridden - the Shi'a especially - and has not exactly been immune to grid-lock prior to Sunni inclusion.

In the end, good governance is something the Iraqis really have to work out on their own. Yes, we did apply a little pressure to force inclusion of Sunni Arabs - but elements within the government were already to the point where they appreciated the necessity of restoration over retribution to get the country moving in the right direction. However, there's still a very long way to go and plenty that could go wrong. A catastrophic break-up of the new government could initiate with Kurds refusing to compromise on demands for greater autonomy, or a bitter factional break-up among the Shi'a - problems linked to Sunni Arab inclusion are not the only potential tipping point.

[Stu-6]

The problem with evaluating “Sunni participation” it that there many different Sunni factions, which have some very different objectives. Some will participate simply in an effort to derail the formation of a new government and will never see a new Iraqi government as legitimate; even inside this group you will have different factions some with religious motivations some more nationalistic. Some will participate to either stop Shiite power, to stop US power, or to gain power for themselves; once again for a variety of reasons. Finally it is worth remembering that participation in government doesn’t rule out participation in the insurgency.

Bottom line, Sunni participation is probably by in large a good thing but don’t read too much into it.