OK. So, I am getting tired of reading press coverage of the either 26 million, 30 million, or 33 million Afghans to which someone is trying to apply one metric or another to.

I looked up the World Gazeteer which shows a 2009 population estimate of 24, 316,392. There's one source, and world gazeteer also has a breakdown by major city for anyone who is interested which provides the 1979 Census and 2006 and 2009 Estimates.

http://www.world-gazetteer.com/wg.ph...z=1500&geo=-13

Another source is the UN. UN sites are pretty similar---around 24 to 26 million projected as of 2008 or so.

UNDP's May 2009 Assessment Report indicates: 26,813,057 (July 2001 Estimate)--- Yes, that's what it says!

http://www.undp.org.af/

Who indicates 26,088,000 as the 2008 Who estimate based on 2006 figures.

UNHCR's 2008-2009 Returnee Report indicates 23,511,400 population plus 4,351,307 returnees. 27,8862,707 total?

Interesting that the refugee report shows approx. 1 million Afghan refugees in Iran, and almost 2 million in Pakistan. Another 500,000 or so are distributed worldwide. Their reports also include maps with pop estimates by region, and there are multiple estimated pops based on return scenarios. (Lots of data)

http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/v...page=49e486eb6

One UN Habitat site shows the Total Pop as 22 million as of 2001 with percent urban as 22%, and urban and slum annual growth rates of 6%.


The summary basis from Habitat is:

"The steady inflow of returnees has further exacerbated the problem of inadequate housing and infrastructure, particularly in larger cities like Kabul, Jalalabad, Mazar and Kandahar. There are reasons to believe that, as peace returns to the country, its urban population will increase as a much faster rate than its rural population. According to UN estimates, from 2000 to 2015, the national population is expected to increase by 14 million to reach a total of about 37 million; more than half of this growth will be in urban areas. Given the country’s strategic location for regional trade and transit, the entrepreneurial nature of its people and the limited capacity of rural areas to absorb further population growth, Afghanistan is destined to urbanised rapidly. In fact it is one of the most rapidly urbanising countries in the sub-region.

Urbanisation will pose both a challenge to, and an opportunity for the development of the country. The way the current pressures on its urban areas are managed will influence the success of its development endeavours."

http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp...id=245&cid=362

Another data point is the Afghan Ministry of Urban Development. I downloaded an April 2009 Report from the Minister to UN Habitat Conference (Nairobi).

Although no overall pop stats are provided in this report, Minister/Engineer Pashtun reports that 5 million refugees have returned in the last few years with more than 70% going to urban centers. Additionally, there is a 5-6% annual rural to urban migration rate.

For Kabul, with 180,000 households, he reports more than 67% of the population of Kabul City lives in informal settlements, and 50% in the urban areas as a whole, with 1.67 families per household.

If I ever get the time, I might sit down and rationalize some of this, but one thing I have not seen is any report that suggests the 30 million or 33 million routinely cited in supposedly authoritative press sources and reports.

Anybody got a any better sources?

Steve