Terrorism in the USA:threat & response

[J Wolfsberger]

If you were a home grown group or individual who wanted to "start a revolution" in the US against the government Patriots Day is the perfect day to do it - the day that Paul Revere made his famous ride almost to Concord where the local militia fired the "shot heard round the world" - it would have huge significance to a US based anti-government group.

So far, the published speculation of the form "home grown group or individual who wanted to "start a revolution" in the US against the government" has come from a variety of hard Left types in "respectable" venues who (at least the honest ones) are expressing a hope that it's some conservative, white male. Their expressed concern is that if a foreign (or Islamist) terrorist or group is responsible, it will derail the agenda.

I won't link to the sites because such contemptible blather shouldn't be promoted in any way.

They only thing we KNOW is that some psychotic(s) set bombs that killed and maimed a lot of people. We can be confident that if and when we catch up to him/her, he will have some blather about why he/she was justified. If anyone wants to pre-blame a particular part of the domestic political spectrum, then be intellectually honest enough to acknowledge that, when the facts are in, their condemnation will attach to WHICHEVER part of the spectrum the psycho(s) profess adherence to.

(Anyone who want to disagree gets to hear my "theory" as to why it was pro-choice activists trying to punish supporters of "Run for the Cure" because the Koman Foundation tried to pull funding for Planned Parenthood.)

[omarali50]

I am curious (and I know this is a site where someone will know such things): How likely is it for a bombing to remain unsolved in the United States? I read somewhere that there were multiple bombings per year in the US in the 1970s (usually with little or no loss of life); how many remained unsolved? I assume low profile casualty-less bombings may not attract a lot of resources, but what about bombings which resulted in deaths or injuries? How many remain unsolved?

I ask because I wrote on someone's facebook page (he is a psychiatrist who proposed, perhaps in jest, that this may have been the act of a disabled person who hates superfit marathoners) that "in any case, we will know soon"...then started thinking, will we?

What do the experts say?

[carl]

Omar:

I am no expert but I know that a lot of the bombings in the US in the old days were labor and mob related. As such I would be surprised if many were solved.

Slap, Stan and Selil are the men I think.

[J Wolfsberger]

Some years back I worked on a couple of programs that were looking into ways to harden high value targets. Bombs were an obvious avenue of attack, so we looked into the records from various government agencies (FAA, FBI, ATF, etc.).

Bombings that were grudge motivated (my term), such as "judge decided against me," "bast@rds fired me," "dirt bag cheating on me," etc. were usually solved, often pretty quickly.

Those that were politically motivated took a lot longer. Some never got solved. It depends on the expertise, discipline, skill and goals of the perpetrators, as well as the effectiveness of law enforcement and intelligence organizations.

One thing that did surprise me was the dramatic, wide difference between the number of bombing incidents that actually occur, and the number that make the national news.

[Stan]

I am curious (and I know this is a site where someone will know such things): How likely is it for a bombing to remain unsolved in the United States? I read somewhere that there were multiple bombings per year in the US in the 1970s (usually with little or no loss of life); how many remained unsolved? I assume low profile casualty-less bombings may not attract a lot of resources, but what about bombings which resulted in deaths or injuries? How many remain unsolved?

Things are a whole lot better than in the 70s and I understand the FBI Cold Case Unit is still looking into those too. Go to their website and search for cold cases involving explosives. Not that many are there.

Forensics and X-ray to mention a few are so far advanced that we can pull DNA off of a burned and charred wire, piece of cloth, metal, etc. Within seconds using X-spray, I can tell you what the explosive compound was and be 90% correct. Not that I will know the exact amounts of the individual chemicals and compounds, but close enough.

Some explosives-related cases here are eight years old, but we are still at it. Sometimes there's just a single item missing from putting the case to bed. We chased our Estonian mad bomber for nearly five years and he knew it. Some of his devices were found and destroyed before he got to employ them. He got smart one day and placed a vintage calculator board along side his explosives thinking it would make him look like something out of a movie with high tech motherboards and fancy wiring. What he had not realized, was his board remained intact post blast and the remainder of the vintage calculator was later found in his basement. Gotcha you SOB

[carl]

NYT reports that it was a black powder device that used kitchen type egg timers to set them off:

The pressure cookers were filled with nails, ball bearings and black powder, and the devices were triggered by “kitchen-type” egg timers, one official said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/17/us...it_th_20130417

People keep saying these were 'rudimentary' devices so as to denigrate them. It seems to me that making a device out of commonly available materials is a good way to avoid leaving a trail or drawing attention while preparing. The materials in this may have been rudimentary but the effects and the malevolent brain work were not.

The materials used in 9-11, box cutters, were rudimentary but the concept behind the op and the effects were not.

[Stan]

People keep saying these were 'rudimentary' devices so as to denigrate them. It seems to me that making a device out of commonly available materials is a good way to avoid leaving a trail or drawing attention while preparing. The materials in this may have been rudimentary but the effects and the malevolent brain work were not.

The materials used in 9-11, box cutters, were rudimentary but the concept behind the op and the effects were not.

Good points, Carl !
I would also point out that as primitive (albeit very effective) as the 7/7 bombings (devices) were, a single store receipt found near a train station trash bin led to the store where such rudimentary items can be commonly bought. The store owner ID'd the purchaser and the rest is history.

Pay me no mind, but I'll wait for something more specific than that of the NYT as a source

[Firn]

Things are a whole lot better than in the 70s and I understand the FBI Cold Case Unit is still looking into those too. Go to their website and search for cold cases involving explosives. Not that many are there.

Forensics and X-ray to mention a few are so far advanced that we can pull DNA off of a burned and charred wire, piece of cloth, metal, etc. Within seconds using X-spray, I can tell you what the explosive compound was and be 90% correct. Not that I will know the exact amounts of the individual chemicals and compounds, but close enough.

Some explosives-related cases here are eight years old, but we are still at it. Sometimes there's just a single item missing from putting the case to bed. We chased our Estonian mad bomber for nearly five years and he knew it. Some of his devices were found and destroyed before he got to employ them. He got smart one day and placed a vintage calculator board along side his explosives thinking it would make him look like something out of a movie with high tech motherboards and fancy wiring. What he had not realized, was his board remained intact post blast and the remainder of the vintage calculator was later found in his basement. Gotcha you SOB

Good to know

All technological advances in warfare, economy and police work seem to be relative in the sense that absolute performance does increase but what matters how well are you doing against your enemy, competitor or criminal SOB. Good to hear that it in this context things are going into the right direction.

In this specific case the amazing amount of visual data stored on phones, cameras and so forth should help the investigation a good deal. Most of that should be tagged with time and location. It seems highly unlikely that there is no visual trace about how those bombs got there and no intel to extract.

P.S: Just read that a suspect got arrested based on two videos. It is obviously only part of the story, in any case hopefully they got the right person.

[carl]

Slap:

For the last two or three hours the news has been reporting an 'arrest is imminent' or 'an arrest has been made' or 'there has been no arrest' or 'there is somebody who they are interested in' and on and on. Is this a case of various officers who may or may not know anything getting played by or playing some reporterette or 'ettes?

[slapout9]

Slap:

For the last two or three hours the news has been reporting an 'arrest is imminent' or 'an arrest has been made' or 'there has been no arrest' or 'there is somebody who they are interested in' and on and on. Is this a case of various officers who may or may not know anything getting played by or playing some reporter or 'ettes?

IMO it is a media F*** up of the highest magnitude......all those contracted highly paid expert consultants with their phony and or obsolete LE contacts just stepped in a big pile of it. It is really pathetic

[Stan]

P.S: Just read that a suspect got arrested based on two videos. It is obviously only part of the story, in any case hopefully they got the right person.

According to our sites, there are no suspects in custody as of 5 minutes ago.

[carl]

In this specific case the amazing amount of visual data stored on phones, cameras and so forth should help the investigation a good deal. Most of that should be tagged with time and location. It seems highly unlikely that there is no visual trace about how those bombs got there and no intel to extract.

P.S: Just read that a suspect got arrested based on two videos. It is obviously only part of the story, in any case hopefully they got the right person.

Slap can check me on this but that video stuff often sounds a lot better than it is. Most of it by necessity shoots from the top down and you can hinder it with a hat. Ground level stuff will be cluttered with intervening bodies. They undoubtedly will get some good evidence from all the photos and videos but it ain't magic.

An accident at the Reno Air races involving a P-51 was an example though of video proving to be of vital importance in finding a cause. If you look at the NTSB report it is filled with extremely detailed images, some of parts actually failing in flight. The report is fascinating. The aircraft was N79111 if you want to find it on the net.

[slapout9]

They undoubtedly will get some good evidence from all the photos and videos but it ain't magic.

IMO getting the photo/video is the easy part and the FBI has all that super duper stuff to enhance everything to a point that is truly incredible compared to when I was working the street...... BUT!!! getting a name to go with the picture is the hard part!!!! that can take a while.

[davidbfpo]

A sensible BBC report 'The Boston Marathon bomber: Caught on film?' and the role of the body the National Digital Multimedia Evidence Processing Lab (unclear whether a public or private body):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22191029

Missing from the article is any mention of the level of human and technical resources needed, thousands of hours of footage take a very long time to assemble, analyse etc to an evidential standard.

Our experience is that CCTV is not the "magic wand" in crime detection; I cannot recall a good commentary on the value of mass citizen footage.

[slapout9]

I read somewhere that there were multiple bombings per year in the US in the 1970s (usually with little or no loss of life); how many remained unsolved?

I started my Law Enforcement career when all that was going on, things are bad now but they have been a lot worse believe it or not. I would research a group called "The Weathermen" also the "The SDS" (students for a Democratic society). The reason I want go into more detail is a lot of the suspects essentially escaped justice and went on to positions of influence inside our present Government and other Institutions. You can find out some of that info and their present status when you research the radical groups I mentioned. Here is a link to one such person http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Ayers

[omarali50]

Indeed, sixties radicals sometimes did very well in later life. To some extent that is a function of class; if you come from a better-off, highly educated background, then your chances of recovering from a crime (any crime) are much better. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...your-kids.html. Leftists recover using left wing sympathies and networks, but I would bet that rich people in general dont do too badly.

[Stan]

... but I would bet that rich people in general dont do too badly.

Hmmm, I would argue that they end up being targeted. They do here, each and every day. Hard to squeeze a middle class man out of something he does not have !