Kith & Kin: a recurrent issue

[M-A Lagrange]

David,

What are you saying:
- expatriates population from western countries is too big in failed countries? As far as I remember, no one had seen the problem come in Lebanon in 2006. And in Liberia, we were a short number of NGO workers. And the problem was long time prepared as we received visit from the french RIMA from Ivory coast nearly 1 year before the events. (that made several though that the offensive against Taylor was a no suprise).

or

- western populations should stay in West and let the "local" take care of their chaotique neibourghs?
Like in South Sudan were I never saw so many ugandese and kenyan expatriates. So they will allow West to looks cleaner and less as post colonisation powers?

or something completely different that I did not get?

[davidbfpo]

MA-L,

Neither point.

I think it is an issue that disappears from view and then pops up. Not just Westerners either, I recall a comment that China had hundreds of thousands of citizens in Africa now; in Grenada there is a sizeable contingent of construction workers who show no sign of leaving.

It is not just in a crisis that the issue applies. How will these expatriate communities influence decisions and even more so when the links are historical? Ivory Coast is one example, with a large French military presence.

Tom has written on the interventions in Congo forty plus years ago.

Bob's World has asked about strategic intelligence and warning in another thread; this is one issue we need to watch.

Incidentally evacuation of Western and other nationals from 'Chaos Country' is not always easy, especially if there is no coastline.

davidbfpo

[Stan]

I recall the first uprisings in Zaire and the Belgian response with troops across the river in waiting while the French jumped right on in. At that point, most of the American expats and dependents were long gone. Seems we've been learning from our painful lessons. I'd have to wonder what would have happened if the US had as many expats there as the Belg.

On the other hand, we have all the makings of a political and forceful intervention on our border here. between 200 and 300,000 Russian citizens (3,700 more granted Russian citizenship this year) openly wait for President Medvedev and PM Putin to demonstrate another Georgian War. As one ethnic Russian said “Who will stop them?”

[M-A Lagrange]

I may have sound agressive,, but I have your point.

The Liberia evacuation was one of the most chaotic I can remember. Lebanon was quite well handled and also facilitated by the parties to the conflict. Which is one of the main points I believe. It is not because Hezbollah is a militia that they act as a crazy un-managed group of drugged armed men.

That would be one of the main factors I would say, but is not new.

Also, during Lebanon, private companies hired private security to extract expatriates from inland locations (at least one french company did it). I believe this comes with the liberalisation of war by Western states.

That would be one main new factor to include in the equation.

Concerning the Chinese - well from what I understood from the Chinese I met in Goma, DRC during the evacuation of the city, it was simple: 'You are on your own guys'. The same for the Indians. If there is something in Katanga they are prety much left to the responsability to the UN. In otherwords: no one.

This might be different in other parts of the world.

In South Sudan, the impact of the Kenyan community, at least in the part I am, is much more tangible. Somehow we are witnessing an economical colonisation of the place. That could be just the top of the iceberg as Uganda has strong involvement in the security (cf LRA). There again, I am afraid, we fall in a neo-colonial or post/neo/whatever/colonial debate. Just like in the Ivory Coast.

LRA is a problem for Uganda as South Sudan is mainly supported through UK and US funding. Just like Uganda. I will not talk about the US and UK or French policy with Khartoum. There, we are pretty much stuck in an old debate. Except if you look at it from the domestic influence that such groups may have in one external country to push for military intervention.

Are you afraid of a Russian invasion of UK?

[jmm99]

Are the 200-300K Russian citizens pretty well spread out in Estonia, or are they in enclaves similar to the situation in Georgia ?

Also is there enough honey for the Bear to risk a destabliization in the Baltic region - and perhaps some kind of Great Northern War ?

Regards

Mike

[Stan]

Are the 200-300K Russian citizens pretty well spread out in Estonia, or are they in enclaves similar to the situation in Georgia ?

Also is there enough honey for the Bear to risk a destabliization in the Baltic region - and perhaps some kind of Great Northern War ?

Regards

Mike

Hey Mike,

Not much like Georgia in one sense. There's approx. 84,000 in Tallinn and remainder in the east. Over 80% of the population in Narva are ethnic Russians (where they continue to hope for some similar recognition by the Kremlin as an independent State).

I personally don't see a Northern War but have to wonder about destabilization efforts and interesting "assistance" in places like Moldova. Estonia doesn't seemed concerned about the financial ramifications of pissing off the bear - I hope that's an educated guess.

Regards, Stan

[davidbfpo]

On the theme by the BBC:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8358919.stm

The Chinese embassy in Angola has advised its nationals not to go out alone at night after a spate of violent attacks on Chinese expatriates.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

I'd not considered this before as an issue for Small Wars, but reading this Australian article led to a moment of reflection.

Link:http://www.petermartin.com.au/2012/0...referring.html

Where do people travel to? From the SWC angle travellers turn up in the oddest of places, get into trouble and for example are kidnapped by insurgents, by a group like AQIM and can die. Secondly in crisis an evacuation is required, no longer just white faces leaving a non-white location.

There's also the unexpected political impact, as discussed or referred to here, with Canada-Haiti links for example. Some nations travel far more than others, although established patterns are changing rapidly, as the article shows with the numbers of Chinese visitors to Australia.

Opportunities exist too, in the SWC context gaining access to information gained via travel. Not just to the tourists "traps". but the minority interests such as the "Hippy Trail" through South Asia into Afghanistan in the late 1970's.

Not that 'Diggers' are unique, but for our American "cousins" you have not travelled for leisure in large numbers abroad for a long time. I exclude going to Canada and Mexico.