Economics and Irregular Warfare

[Surferbeetle]

Steve,

Appreciate the article it's an interesting one.

Financial Times had the latest on the opening of the Northern Route, and hearty encouragement for the line through Afghanistan to India via Pakistan:
"From hell, through hell, to hell."

Strange but typical business arguments about united all stakeholders, and long-term benefits if Taliban will join up with Pashtun brethren to reap the benefits...

Here are some more Afghanistan energy centric jigsaw pieces:

Wikipedia on the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAP)

On 24 April 2008, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan signed a framework agreement to buy natural gas from Turkmenistan.[6]

The pipeline will be 1,420 millimetres (56 in) in diameter with a working pressure of 100 standard atmospheres (10,000 kPa).[7] The initial capacity will be 27 billion cubic meter (bcm) of natural gas per year of which 2 bcm will be provided to Afghanistan and 12.5 bcm to each Pakistan and India. Later the capacity will increase to 33 bcm.[8] Six compressor stations would be constructed along the pipeline.[7] The pipeline was expected to be operational by 2014.[9]

The cost of the pipeline is estimated cost at US$7.6 billion.[6] The project is to be financed by the Asian Development Bank.[10]

The Afghanistan Energy Profile from the EIA. The estimate for natural gas reserves is in the neighborhood of 1,750 billion cubic feet. (website acessed on 11 Jan '10) (1 cubic meter = 35.3146667 cubic foot)

The Afghanistan Country Study, Foreign Area Studies, The American University, Edited by Richard F. Nyrop and Donald M. Seekins, Research completed, January 1986.

Chapter 3 covers the Economy and Mining info starts on page 192 (55 of the pdf).

Natural gas was the most important mineral resource and industrial product. The country was thought to possess 110 to 150 billion cubic meters of total reserves. With Soviet assistance, production began in 1967 at the Kwoja Gugerdak field, 15 kilometers east of Sbeberghan in Jowzjan Province. The field’s reserves were thought to be 67 billion cubic meters. The Soviets also completed in 1967 a IOO-kilometer gas pipeline, 820 millimeters in diameter, linking Keleft in the Soviet Union with Sheberghan. Other fields were discovered at Kwaja Bolan, Yatim Taq, and Jousik, with reserves of about 2.5 billion cubic meters. Gas production rose from I.68 billion cubic meters in 1968 to 2.8 billion in 1980. In 1982 a new field at Jarquduk, also in Jowzjan, started production, again with Soviet aid

For scale the EIA (website acessed on 11 Jan '10) Qatar Energy Profile estimate for natural gas reserves is in the neighborhood of 910,520 billion cubic feet and the Turkmenistan Energy Profile estimate for natural gas reserves is at 71,000 billion cubic feet. (1 cubic meter = 35.3146667 cubic foot)

Bloomberg tracks commodity futures here. As of 11 Jan '10 the NATURAL GAS FUTR (USD/MMBtu) 5.485 and 1 std.cu.feet of natural gas = 1000 BTU = 252 kilocalories per this website (Energy Policy & Planning Office, Ministry of Energy, Thailand) while Wikipedia notes that "1 standard cubic foot of natural gas yields ≈ 1030 BTU (between 1010 BTU and 1070 BTU, depending on quality, when burned)" and that 'MMBTU represent one million BTU'.

Seems out of place for a couple of reasons: First, corruption---How are all these long-term stakeholders supposed to perceive/receive a benefit in the current climate? Second, another reason to unite Taliban and Pashtuns for an inter-border "benefit" for Pashtunistan. No?

As you know from Iraq identifying and empowering moderates is very tricky business. Our DoS friends have their work cut out for them

Steve