Bill:

Your insight about the black economy is the driver.

We are sitting heree with the notion that Afghanistan has virtually no economy, while the self-evident truth is that there is always an economy, everywhere, all the time.

The Russian Ambassador, commenting on their failures, reiterated the truism that Afghanistan is not a war that cane be won, but a reconstruction/development process.

Where, in truth, the many parts of Afghanistan were, more often than not, under "foreign" subjugation throughout history, it was to trade patterns and alliances that were productive.

It is almost silly to believe that the largest global trade in opium derives from Afghanistan without a substantially evolved and routinely performing economic system. Obviously, in a three year period, Afghanistan has sprung two vibrant economies: first, the fantastically growing poppy trade; and, second, a booming business in foreign aid "supporting" industries (security, theft, extortion/kidnapping).

So, if we start with the reality that Afghans, like everyone else, are substantially economically motivated and capable, we then turn to the problem that we don't like their economic system and desire to change it.

But if I put on my Afghan farmer hat, why am I going to do something else, given my alternatives?

Let's assume for a second that we substantially interfere with the poppy conveyor (arrest major leaders, disrupt production/distribution). Absent a credible alternative, wouldn't that, of itself cause such substantial opposition and economic suffering that we are back to where we started?

If it was me, I would be interested in mapping out and understanding the poppy economy (not just the military/terrorist component), then looking for ways to re-direct it.

India, for example, is a huge poppy economy, but for the legal medical markets. What's up with that? Could legal production displace illegal?

What if, once you mapped out the system, you were able to limit external transfers of poppy wealth? You can earn it, but it has to be spent in Afghanistan. Does that become a basis for economic investment in infrastructure, etc...

I continue to hear the lament from the North and West that they need to exploit mineral resources to create jobs, GDP. Lots of questions surrounding that, but our focus on the Northern Supply route (for military expedience) does not sound like a sustainable supporting investment on that path. I assume the black economy would see the Northern Route as a boon to getting opium to Europe by piggybacking on our efforts.

Good idea to start with a base-line understanding of all economic systems.

Merry Xmas.

Steve