Economics and Irregular Warfare

[S2MSSI]

All, sorry to budge in on this post and take it back some posts, but I saw some areas/questions that were not really addressed and I may be able to shed some different thinking.

Initially, the post addressing Economics was brought up to assess an area. Through the posts it came to Illicit Activities as perhaps another more viable approach to COIN and IW-related activities.

I'd like to draw you back to the systems-approach of understanding an ecosystem of the immediate and outskirts of an environment. Economics is certainly a part of this, and as many have posted--the local level is core. But going back to a dynamic systems approach where one looks at the associations and intersections of activity, you may see that in fact when it comes to hunting finance and value exchanges the core may be informal economies---not illicit. Also not economics but the micro and macro version of the formal and informal economic transactional structure and how value exchanges take place from social favors and obligations to commodity items (livestock, produce, clothes, land, ...) to actual monetary items through the banking system (again informal and formal where hawala meets 1st Bank of X).

Again, it comes back to the human terrain and social culture and history to know how life takes place on a daily basis and how sub-systems of an illicit activity blend into normal every day life because for locals it is part of every day and is not illicit in their eyes. A porter carrying raw opium across a border may not be conducting an illicit activity as much as in his eyes is doing his daily porter job within his tribal ties but today someone has asked him to carry an item involved in narcotics trade (whatever that may be to him) vs. a tv the day before. Note: rough example as many are fully aware of the legal aspects involved in drugs and the higher wage they can gain. But the point is, yes, economics and dark transactions all need to be assessed but not in a vacuum and instead as the whole environmental on-goings if one is to really spot obvious or subtle indicators and anomalies. Good example is Trade Based Money Laundering where one needs to know the baseline of goods and services in a country or local market before one can see if the overs/unders make sense.

Back to systems approach one can also see the Power players of an area to see where real power does indeed rest through catalyst areas of influence and centers of gravity. Profits can also be better understood because through full ecosystem mapping you can break almost all activity down to supply chain processes, which can be augmented, improved, or my favorites--destroyed and disrupted.

Anyway, my 2 cents in an effort to fill a couple holes.