Economics and Irregular Warfare

[Surferbeetle]

Bill,

A policeman's understanding of the proverbial three blocks in his AO is decidedly different than a Soldier's/Marine's understanding of those same three blocks. That hard won knowledge is based upon a significant difference in time on station (years vs. 12 months or less), use of different TTP's, and I, for one, do not lightly dismiss a policeman's considered opinion concerning the human animal.

Soldiers and Marines insights are just as valuable as a policeman's, and I do not dismiss those either. There was a SF WO who's insights proved to be invaluable to me just outside of Iskandariyah and those of his Marine tanker brothers were just as important...

Let's check a couple of your stated assumptions:

The insurgency is based on a lot of things, but very little has to do with the economy

Selected Histories of Economic targeting

Islamic Charities

This alleged support for acts of violence and terrorism in the Islamic charitable sector—and a seeming toleration of such activities—raises serious questions. Is a significant portion of this charitable sector a front for terrorist activities? Or is a small minority tainting the good deeds of the majority?

Iraq Embargo

The Iraq sanctions were a near-total financial and trade embargo imposed by the United Nations Security Council against the nation of Iraq. They began August 6, 1990, four days after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait,[1] and continued until May 22, 2003, after the fall of the Saddam Hussein government in the US-led invasion earlier that year. Their stated purpose was at first to compel Iraq's military to withdraw from Kuwait and after that to compel Iraq to pay reparations, and to disclose and eliminate any weapons of mass destruction, and to do certain other things.

Soviet Union

The Soviet Union's collapse into independent nations began early in 1985.[dubious – discuss] After years of Soviet military buildup at the expense of domestic development, economic growth was at a standstill. Failed attempts at reform, a stagnant economy, and war in Afghanistan led to a general feeling of discontent, especially[citation needed] in the Baltic republics and Eastern Europe.

1973 Oil Embargo

The 1973 oil crisis started in October 1973, when the members of Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries or the OAPEC (consisting of the Arab members of OPEC, plus Egypt and Syria) proclaimed an oil embargo "in response to the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military" during the Yom Kippur war; it lasted until March 1974.[1] OAPEC declared it would limit or stop oil shipments to the United States and other countries if they supported Israel in the conflict. With the US actions seen as initiating the oil embargo, the long-term possibility of embargo-related high oil prices, disrupted supply and recession, created a strong rift within NATO; both European nations and Japan sought to disassociate themselves from the US Middle East policy.

After we suppress the insurgency, then we can do some real economic development for the long term win like we did in Germany and Japan.

Simultaneous execution of multiple LOO's

Varying levels of development work are historically undertaken during preconflict, humanitarian/criminal crises, wartime, and post conflict periods.

For example, CA-bubbas have worked WWI, WWII, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

CA Bubbas are not the only people who work during hostilities...ICRC, MSF, and others do what they can...

Best,

Steve