Bill, Apologies for coming late to the discussion. I'm retired AID after Colombia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and others. A jarhead, I don't know how AID let me in.

Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
Surferbettle your post,

- How much of our economic aide in these countries actually supports the efforts of our foes? I just looked a graph today that showed a correlation between CERP spending and reduced violence, but is that the real picture, or did we simply forfeit control to the enemy, thus there is no need to fight?

- Once black economy models are established (such as the illicit business transfers on the cell phones, selling gas illegally on the side of the road, narcotics trade, human smuggling, kidnap for ransom, etc.) is it even feasible to displace this black economy with a legal economy?

- There are estimates that up to one third of the world's economic activity takes place in the black economy which equates to over a trillion dollars that governments have no control over. What does the ever increasing convergence of crime and extremism mean to those of us who develop and execute plans in an attempt to defeat terrorists and insurgents?

- Are there cases where our economic development efforts actually undermine successful black economic development, thus push the populace away from us and the HN? For example, attempting to eradicate the poppy plant and replace it with some form of unskilled labor or with a replacement crop that isn't worth as much?

There is a lot more to economic development than meets the eye when you're operating in these chaos zones.
Re CERP and less violence -- why chance a fight when the resources are being given away at no risk? And over and over again!

Re black economic activities -- Some activities, eg, human trafficking, drug smuggling, kidnapping are indeed criminal and wrong. Cops and maybe the Coast Guard are the correct response. But selling gas by the side of the road? Ripping off electrical service? "Facilitation" at the port? These are all highly profitable outcomes of government policies that allow perversion of licit economic activities. Cops can't solve them -- it's gotta be the folks who negotiate "reform" with the host government.

Re pushing the population away -- a great example is the takedown of the Cali cartel in Colombia. We caught the big fish, but the little fish scattered like drops of mercury and kept on exporting. The loss of the cartel leaders -- the big local property investors -- set the city back 20 years. And Calenos know what country did the job. Killing the coca or poppy plant in the field makes us the clear source of the farmer's incipient poverty. More better we got good at taking out the processors/warehouses.