Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
I really enjoyed his article, but I'm still not swayed. My rebuttal goes back to the fundamentals of insurgency theory relying mainly on Mao's protracted war. Insurgencies and terrorist groups need several things:

1. Ideology- something to validate their worldview and actions
2. People- technical bomb experts, grunts, suicide bombers, etc
3. Guns
4. Money

If AQ fractures, then funding sources, recruiting bases, technical skills, and support networks and infrastructure decline thus diminishing the capabilities of follow-on organizations. Moreover, competition amoungst groups would cause additional infighting and diminished capabilities.

That's my take. Any thoughts?
I disagree that "funding sources, recruiting bases, technical skills, and support networks and infrastructure decline." Rather, I think they will just do what the author asserts - they will shift to another social network that we have less knowledge about.

In regard to competition among groups and infighting, I think that is another reason to keep AQ. If they are around, the new kids on the block will seek to knock of AQ. It is easier to glean intelligence of a group that is fighting against a network that you know (we might be able to gain intel from AQ - we'd be the enemy of their enemy). In fact, we did exactly that on occasion in Iraq.

Also, at this point AQ is a well-known organization with a negative history that we can use to discredit all similar organizations. If they are destroyed, then we are starting at square one.