The Civilian Shoe Dropping

[Rob Thornton]

Ken was right it is all on Autopilot now.......everything else is just a talking head.

concur with it being on autopilot, but I don't know how it turns out.

My guess is anything that approaches an increase in civilian capacity will be contracted - and as such it will be expensive, but probably better than filling a USG capability gap we've known has existed for about 5 years with people off the street who may/may not have anything approaching the right technical skills and experience.

Even then, I suspect the majority of any tasks (time to name that tune) we'd expect a civilian surge to fill will be done (if done) by the uniformed folks once we realize we laid place settings for dinner guests that never even existed (or were intended to exist)

Best, Rob

[Steve the Planner]

Rob:

Right. The military is the only real party with the "expeditionary" capability to boldly go...

At some point, however, for the things they do to have purpose, continuity, and propulsion, they must link to a substantive civilian structure.

Otherwise, it is just Clear, Clear, Clear, Build Some Crap, Clear, Clear, Clear...

Steve

[Ken White]

"Rebuild same Crap, Clear, Clear, Clear..."

[Bob's World]

A little faith Ken, there's a wild card in the deck.

[Ken White]

concur with it being on autopilot, but I don't know how it turns out.

Big drawdown by mid 2012, full probably about late 2015 - early 2016.

...but probably better than filling a USG capability gap we've known has existed for about 5 years with people off the street who may/may not have anything approaching the right technical skills and experience.

I'd say that capability gap has been known since 1918, was relearned in 1942 and we've had it branded on our foreheads about for about 50 years. The gap has really existed for about 34 or so years , has been reborn for about 7 -- it's not like we haven't done this before...

I also suggest that if the USG cannot put the right people with the right skills in place, that is the sole fault of the USG and specifically the
legislative and executive branches -- to include State, DoD and the US Army. The people are out there.

Even then, I suspect the majority of any tasks (time to name that tune) we'd expect a civilian surge to fill will be done (if done) by the uniformed folks once we realize we laid place settings for dinner guests that never even existed (or were intended to exist)

If so, that is the fault of the uniformed folks for not sticking to what they should be doing and allowing others to do what they should be doing. Indeed, insisting on others doing what they should be doing...

But that might mean a budget shift...

We've done this before. We do not do it well and Congressional, military and bureaucratic failings are a big part of why we do not. The attitude that "...it won't get done unless we do it." is a big part of the problem. People think they need credit for a big Attaboy on their watch. "I see it, I own it" is a poor philosophy...

[Rob Thornton]

Hi Ken,
You are probably right on all accounts. On points 2 and 3, as much as I suspect you are right, they don't do much to engender any confidence that we will get it more right in the future.

On point 2, there is knowing and then there is knowing. Its kind of like that expression there are no lessons learned, just lessons available. It leads me to believe there will again come an opportunity in the future where we will discover we have a gap that was previously identified and not addressed.

On point 3, I don't know if its specifically that so much as a desire to make it work - its one of those things that is maybe both a strength and a weakness. Also at work maybe is pride and a fear of being the fall guy (or component/department/etc.). I'm relatively young as such things go, but I don't expect a budget shift and part of the reason is based on what I have seen I don't think any potential beneficiary would be willing to risk having the marker called in - they only seem to want the sure thing and I don't see many of those in the near future.

Best, Rob