The Civilian Shoe Dropping

[Cole]

Noticed the link does not default to the same zoom or screen position that my initial description was based on....which perhaps is for the better from an OPSEC standpoint.

Guess most of the door-to-door searching pertains to looking for bombs since the city that once had 30,000 is currently pretty deserted. Not sure how you get folks to return but by having the FOB, COPs, and OPs in place beforehand, and other building started or adapted when empty, you would have the makings of a future Marine-protected ink spot.

Anecdotally, I have several relatives who home school and the smartest pair of mothers have created really smart kids. Another in-law with less education was far less successful. If mothers could be taught in parallel classes in their daughter's school and given learning materials, they could assist their children's learning and long term Helmand province development.

[Steve the Planner]

The details.

Various reports over the many successive occupations report the population as ranging from about 10,000 in the town to a ghost town. For now, I will assume about 2,000 with, at best, the maximum restoration of about 5,000.

The 30,000 figure is probably for Now Zad district---all those happy poppy growers.

Probably a ton of the homes visible on Google Earth are damaged/unoccupied.

As for schools, assuming, based on the young age of the pop in general, that about 1,000 school age students are possible in the town, and a total of about 10,000 in the district, it is most likely that much of the schooling will be informal (tents, abandoned homes, people's houses), but it's important to know whether any plans for schools in town are intended to serve the town, or reach for a more regional strategy---specialized high schools, etc...

Twenty total teachers and classrooms is probably a max, to be fazed in as re-occupation proceeds. How many tea cups does that take?

Where lack of buildings is a problem elsewhere, Now Zad, it seems, would have plenty of empty space, some of which could open the door for rapid repair/re-use without costly and slow building projects. Take a few adjacent houses and turn them into schools, health clinics, kitchens. A good time to plan something out before refugees return.

Why would they return initially? Reconstruction jobs? New teacher jobs? Unfortunately, the jobs drivers will all be foreign aid/int'l supported, but what else?

The real challenge, based on past successive occupation/abandonment (Brits, Russians, us, etc...) is to find a sustainable strategy to what is around Now Zad. Is it intended as an Oil Spot, with a focused strategy to reinvent ag production away from poppy, or is poppy an assumed?

I assume there was a reasonably productive agricultural base before poppies. Wonder what it was, what old sites, knowledge and infrastructure supported that, could be re-promoted?

My guess is that unless we take the town strategy as part of a focused strategy for the immediate region, and maybe the district, then it is just another passing occupancy. In large part, that comes back to Ross's comment about what gov/societal level to target---district for higher level project/programs---but what is the state of governance and/or societal structure at that level?

How, where to engage which level of government? I think the answer to that question depends on what bigger picture is intended in Now Zad/Helmand--- central, regional, provincial, district, town, tribal?

Steve

[Steve the Planner]

NPR's latest report on State's Inspector General Report:

"When it comes to its counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan, the State Department's activities, while well-intentioned, leave a lot to be desired, according to a new report from the department's inspector general."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...tidrug_ef.html

What are you going to do?

Steve

[jcustis]

Would build girl's schools next to each COP and FOB with women's clinics adjacent to each.

Cole, why would you focus on doing this? I ask because this is one of the first things you went to, but I wonder what it gains us in terms of cooperation or information...what do you desire to achieve by trying to apply resources to a specific target affiliated with a schools's project? Going after influence over military-aged males? Going after close-hold information from tight-lipped fathers who truthfully want an education for their daughters?

Also, PM sent re: UAS employment.

[Steve the Planner]

Custis:

Your point has a lot of resonance.

First, my understanding is that the first real societal confrontation in the current era occurred when the communist urban government started to tear down a lot of old cultural traditions, and directly challenge long-standing rural practices---including education and professions, and especially for women. Social transformation stuff.

So is the military role in post-conflict on immediate stabilization/restoration, reconstruction, social transformation, etc...? Especially if bigger objectives are multi-year and richer and broader than available resources.

Where does the line get drawn? Quick hits? Immediate work?

My problem with, for example, the poppy game, is that the real answer lies in creating a sustainable alternative, which means developing (or reestablishing) markets, market support resouces, trading patterns and transportation links. My general assumption is that the farmers know how to grow what they grew for generations (not poppies) but something today makes only poppies viable. Address that. Carrots, sticks, incentives, whatever---there must be an obvious and economically viable strategy behind the many tactics.

If we want to improve their ag techniques, approaches, that is a next stage which, for the most part, they are going to figure out and adopt later...

Steve

[jcustis]

Custis:

Your point has a lot of resonance.

First, my understanding is that the first real societal confrontation in the current era occurred when the communist urban government started to tear down a lot of old cultural traditions, and directly challenge long-standing rural practices---including education and professions, and especially for women. Social transformation stuff.

So is the military role in post-conflict on immediate stabilization/restoration, reconstruction, social transformation, etc...? Especially if bigger objectives are multi-year and richer and broader than available resources.

Where does the line get drawn? Quick hits? Immediate work?

My problem with, for example, the poppy game, is that the real answer lies in creating a sustainable alternative, which means developing (or reestablishing) markets, market support resouces, trading patterns and transportation links. My general assumption is that the farmers know how to grow what they grew for generations (not poppies) but something today makes only poppies viable. Address that. Carrots, sticks, incentives, whatever---there must be an obvious and economically viable strategy behind the many tactics.

If we want to improve their ag techniques, approaches, that is a next stage which, for the most part, they are going to figure out and adopt later...

Steve

This is what has, and always will, worried me in terms on non-kinetic efforts to improve the plight of the people we are charged to protect. I have had to endure prattling from folks about this or that project or initiative, and I often thought them mad since it ran totally counter to a number of societal trends that fit that specific slice of society.

Your point about the poppy alternative effort makes me think back to a class I took in undergraduate where I formed the impression that that the so-called Green Revolution did not actually improve the plight of the most impoverished on our planet. Distribution networks, markets, seed and fertilizer procurement systems have to improve at the same time. It's not enough to simply do a seed drop of resistant wheat, without having a grasp of other factors already at play in that agricultural system.

So is the military role in post-conflict on immediate stabilization/restoration, reconstruction, social transformation, etc...? Especially if bigger objectives are multi-year and richer and broader than available resources.

If that is what the role must be, alongside kinetic efforts, the campaign plan for it has to be water tight...Sadly, when stacked up against even 15 month deployment rotations, I don't imagine that these campaign plans retain the focus and rudder steer required to actually show something for the effort.

[Steve the Planner]

jcustis:

That's what I found fascinating about Iraq. No shortage of smart, brave people or resources, but. amongst all the competing priorities, and action-oriented campaign plans chock-full of programs and tactics, we couldn't seem to create an Iraq in our image---had to wait for Iraqis to do it.

MG Caslon (MND-North) talked about the June 30 SOFA turn-over. Initially, was very skeptical that Iraqis were ready for responsibility, but accepted Gen. Odeirno's point that it was the only way forward. In retrospect, he said he was amazed by how much the Iraqi Army was ready, willing and able (within their resources), to take possession of their own country's responsibilities. Might not be perfect, but it was theirs.

Some kind of big lessons there.

Steve

[Cole]

Cole, why would you focus on doing this? I ask because this is one of the first things you went to, but I wonder what it gains us in terms of cooperation or information...what do you desire to achieve by trying to apply resources to a specific target affiliated with a schools's project? Going after influence over military-aged males? Going after close-hold information from tight-lipped fathers who truthfully want an education for their daughters?

Also, PM sent re: UAS employment.

Just used that as an example and would include male schools as well if not already present. But believe it's in line with my latest reply under the COL Gentile post about things the Taliban would never provide...which maybe reason enough. Besides, what nation can afford to not educate half its citizens. My wife is a longtime post Child Development Center provider and has had many Saudi kids in pre-school classes over the years. The wives would often still be in full Islamic garb yet would be highly educated which helps her teach her kids. For poor Afghans, it would not hurt to have a second bread-winner in the family, either. Sewing classes and similar lessons could be provided, and the women's health clinic would reduce the horrid childbirth death rate and death rate of kids under 5 years old.

The whole idea is to move civilian aid workers, teachers, clinic workers etc into the same COP so they are close to their work and the COP can provide overwatch. Just my theory that has zero basis in reality to back it up that I can point to. But it seems to align with COIN practices.

Hopefully you got at least one of the PMs.