The Civilian Shoe Dropping

[Steve the Planner]

Just in from AP: Kai Eide willleave when his two-year contract ends in March.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...hjZJQD9CH5EB80

Much controversy about him and his position but, at the least, his analysis of the situation is on par:

"Speaking in Kabul, Eide lamented that civilian work remains too "fragmented," too "ad hoc," and expressed hope that future work done by the international community will be sustainable when foreign assistance declines."

Steve

[Steve the Planner]

World Politics Review has an article about the spheres of influence (China/India) and the Big Game being played out through Afghanistan on the economic development side:

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=4796

"To begin with, a de facto division of the country into these spheres of influence is already taking place. China is making investments in mining all around the country, but its flagship project -- the massive copper mine at Aynak -- is, significantly, in the Pashtun belt. Beijing seems to be counting on Pakistan's support in the event the central Afghan government loses control of this region. But would Pakistani guarantees be sufficient to keep the mine in operation? Meanwhile, India's influence is strongest in the north and west, the heartlands of the old Northern Alliance.

Unlike the situation in Persia, where spheres were imposed on the country, the outside players in Afghanistan do find genuine support among specific ethnic groups and regions of the country.

And unlike the treaty of a century ago, there need be no formal document drawn up this time around. An informal agreement whereby the major players voluntarily placed limits on where they will situate their investments and security services would suffice. Kabul could return to its traditional function as the country's marketplace, where all sides are represented. A settlement in Afghanistan could work to guarantee China's vital Baluchistan lifeline, while leaving intact the Indian-Iranian transport routes that provide New Delhi with a direct route to Central Asia."

To me, there are two implicit elements: (1.) Eide's role was probably eclipsed long before he started by the Big Game; and (2.) the humble troops in the field cannot have a big and sustainable effect using a village-by-village approach without some form of engagement/coordination of their local work to the Bigger Game being played around them; they don't need to understand it, but they need to effectively walk with and around it.

Steve