Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[davidbfpo]

The Sahel has recently shown glimpses of hope as jihadist groups have overtaken northern sections of Mali in the wake of Libya’s collapse. Despite the upheaval in Mali, disparate groups appear to be contesting each other’s claims to the desert. Isolated in remote portions of the Sahara and almost entirely dependent on illicit funding streams, the Sahel offers few advantages as an enduring global safe haven for al-Qaeda and many logistical burdens.

The emphasis is mine and the passage is a small part of Clint Watts wider review of AQ for FPRI in July 2012:http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2012/2012...s.al-qaeda.pdf

[davidbfpo]

Sketchy reporting that the French have intervened, with a small ground presence and air power - after a request from Mali:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20991719

One hopes the cited seven French hostages are not now executed.

Stabilising the unclear line between the "rebels" and the Bamako government appears to be the initial objective.

[davidbfpo]

A PPT map used by the French MoD indicates what the French have done:http://www.afriscoop.net/journal/spip.php?article6762

Close air support by helicopters and aircraft, using in-flight refuelling; with troops to Bamako using Transall medium transports and what looks like a Breguet Atlantic ASW aircraft for C2 & ELINT (as per P3 Orions etc used elsewhere).

Note the ECOWAS nations have agreed to immediate deployment and the commander is a Nigerian - not sure what happened to the French general!

[ganulv]

A press release from the French Minister of Defense’s website. Points to the French for handle—Opération Serval shows some real Gallic style. Here’s hoping for substance, as well.

[davidbfpo]

A strange NYT article on the US role before the coup in Mali in mid-2012, one wonders why this had been in the public domain and challenges the value of the US DoD programme across West Africa:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/14/wo...nted=all&_r=1&

This alone suffices:

According to one senior officer, the Tuareg commanders of three of the four Malian units fighting in the north at the time defected to the insurrection “at the crucial moment,” taking fighters, weapons and scarce equipment with them. He said they were joined by about 1,600 other defectors from within the Malian Army, crippling the government’s hope of resisting the onslaught.

A puzzling insight into the action / in-action behind the shifting front-line in Mali:http://africasacountry.com/2013/01/1...the-fairytale/

Such as this oh not subtle change:

Second, virtually unremarked upon with all eyes in the East, several hundred French soldiers are deployed in Bamako to protect French citizens—of whom there are reportedly some 6,000 in Mali, of whom expatriates are a minority (press: please note). In the current emergency while the French troops are there ostensibly to protect their citizens and other civilians from terrorist attack, they implicitly secure the civilian government against its own military and against mobs like those ginned up by MP-22 and other radical associations. Meanwhile, soldiers from ECOWAS nations are arriving by the hundreds, although it is not yet clear what role they will play or where they will be stationed.

[KingJaja]

I know the discussion over the next few weeks is going to be about tactics, "counter insurgency", training, how the West can better partner with African armies etc. I think that misses the big picture.

Think about this.

1. Ghana lies in the same neighbourhood (it is right next door to Cote D'Ivoire), but Ghana has been remarkably stable (just had a peaceful presidential election). The economy is growing and it is moving to "mid income" status.

It is "good governance" stupid. All the military assistance and strategy in the World will not erase the uncomfortable facts on the ground. The current state of the Malian Military is the best indicator that you are dealing with (a) a failed state and (b) extremely flaky "allies".

2. The next question is how do we make "good governance" happen. We need to come to terms with the fact that someone played a game of dice with artificial borders and gave those artificial entities "statehood" in the sixties. The neat lines in the Saharan sand mean nothing to the Tuareg people.

We have to rethink the Malian state and if necessary, let the maps reflect the reality on the ground. The more we postpone it the more time we waste.

3. We Africans need to partner with the Chinese (to help us with the economic stuff) and the West (to help us with security). The problem of "terrorism" in Africa cannot be solved without a solid economic and political strategy.

Neither the US nor France have a long-term economic strategy for that part of the World, so why not work with the Chinese to integrate the economics with the security?

I've always had my reservations about the US AFRICOM-led policy in the part of the World. The events in Mali proved me right (the massive amounts of money spent on the trans Saharan counter-terrorism initiative have been wasted).

It all starts from governance.

[Fuchs]

I'm incredibly tired right now, but I remember something about Mali having had relatively decent governance until a year or two, until a coup d'tat happened.

[Dayuhan]

The next question is how do we make "good governance" happen. We need to come to terms with the fact that someone played a game of dice with artificial borders and gave those artificial entities "statehood" in the sixties. The neat lines in the Saharan sand mean nothing to the Tuareg people.

I don't know that anyone has the capacity to "make good governance happen". Good governance is the product of an evolutionary process; it doesn't just "happen". That process is often long and on the ugly side.

I completely agree that artificial borders have created many problems, in Africa and elsewhere, but I'm not convinced that it will help to have any outside entity, particularly a western one, trying to redraw the lines in the sand to conform to perceived reality.

We have to rethink the Malian state and if necessary, let the maps reflect the reality on the ground. The more we postpone it the more time we waste.

Who would be the "we" in that statement?