Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[davidbfpo]

AdamG,

The second linked article by a Time journalist in Mali has this amazing line:

Northern Mali is barely a hop and skip across the Mediterranean.

Really?

Politics aside how the local population react is a good indicator, so this was a gem:

Buses to the north are now packed, filled with refugees no longer willing to wait out the now quiet conflict far from home. Their departure has left refugee camps at a fraction of their original size, say local officials.

[davidbfpo]

Paul Rogers looks at what is happening, with several links in support:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...paring-for-war

I note the stance taken by Algeria:

The entire operation would be greatly aided were Algeria to be supportive.. Algeria seems unlikely to alter its stance, however. A security advisor of Algeria's government... says that external intervention would not work and that instead a political solution must be found

[davidbfpo]

The heralded ECOWAS intervention does appear to be a rather slow process. Assembly of contributions, movement into Mali, re-equipping and training of the Malian military, negotiations with some of the militants and an EU training mission.

Any foreign-backed offensive to retake control of northern Mali from al Qaeda-linked Islamists will take at least six months to prepare, plans seen by Reuters show, a delay that runs counter to the expectations of many Malians.

Links, text from:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8AF0SD20121116 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20342369

[davidbfpo]

Mali under pressure to give separatists autonomy in fight against al-Qaida; Ecowas wants Tuaregs to help take on militants as officials say priority is to remove all terrorists

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...tists-al-qaida

This reads like "divide & rule" from my faraway armchair, but I am wary of ECOWAS having enough influence, let alone power to get Mali's cooperation, nor that there is such a "moderate" element to talk with. Interesting to note the famed Tuaregs only constitute 11% of the population in the northern area.

[ganulv]

Interesting to note the famed Tuaregs only constitute 11% of the population in the northern area.

An undercount, perhaps? I am under the impression that about 10% or so of the population of the whole of Mali is Tuareg, though I do not know if a real census has been done in Mali. And the Tuareg do have a tendency to move around, at least if allowed to do so.

I do think the percentage of Tuaregs in the total population begins to decrease as one moves south towards the Niger River. My friend recently noted that Ansar Dine had a hand in a dispute in the Dogon village where she formerly resided. Islamists adjudicating a dispute amongst the Dogon is something that I do not think anyone would have imagined ever happening a year ago!

[…] I am wary […] that there is such a "moderate" element to talk with.

My impression is that the MNLA are moderate in the sense that they are secularists and I have read a couple of commentators claiming that Ansar Dine may be if not necessarily moderate at least pragmatic. I have not seen any similar claims regarding the MUJAO.

[davidbfpo]

CTC Sentinel's leading story:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-ch...-northern-mali

This article will show why northern Mali is prone to rebellion. It will then explain how the state has supported militias to quell these frequent uprisings, argue that the state might re-employ that same strategy to unseat Islamist militants in the north, and identify what results an international military intervention might bring.

It is really a primer on the challenges and is dismissive of international action.

There is a second, longer article 'An Algerian Press Review: Determining Algiers’ Position on an Intervention in Mali' looks at:

According to many press accounts, while Algeria reportedly still favors a “political solution” to the crisis in Mali, it now appears that Algiers will participate in an international intervention within specified parameters and discretion. Algerian media reports remain divided, however, over whether military intervention is desirable, and several articles suggest that while Algiers has identified political processes it favors with respect to Mali, it has yet to decide on a desired end state from negotiations or military action.

Link:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/an-alg...ention-in-mali

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Cimicweb newsletter for a pointer to a very comprehensive human security briefing, which is IMHO a "one stop" primer on everything:http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb...y_nov_2012.pdf