Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[davidbfpo]

I am sceptical that ECOWAS can assemble the will and capability for 3k troops to deploy in Mali. If they had announced a civil-military observer mission to be deployed soon that would make sense; one led by a French-speaking nation too as French remains the daily language IIRC.

As for an ECOWAS intervention against the rebels that is "pie in the sky" from my "armchair". Given the terrain, distance and being on their home ground one hopes there is sensible military advice aplenty.

Now, whether other parties see a need to act is a moot point. In particular the USA if AQIM leaders are in one place long enough, more likely is Algeria either now to rescue it's diplomat(s) or after a delay to deliver pain.

[KingJaja]

What on God's good earth, does this mean?

Boko Haram militants have joined the armed rebellion in northern Mali, security officials said.
Tuaregs and radical Islamist groups have occupied several cities in the north of Mali following a two-month rebellion.

The armed militias made significant advances after the government was overthrown by a military junta.
Last week, Islamists stormed the Algerian embassy in Gao, taking seven Algerian diplomats as hostages. It is not clear whether they have now been freed.
Security sources said the group was led by at least 100 Boko Haram fighters.
"There are a good 100 Boko Haram fighters in Gao. They are Nigerians and from Niger," Abu Sidibe, a regional deputy, told AFP. "They're not hiding. Some are even able to speak in the local tongue, explaining that they are Boko Haram."

Boko Haram militants "were in a majority among those who attacked the Algerian consulate" in Gao, another Malian security official said.
Responsibility for the attack on the Algerian embassy and the kidnapping of diplomats was claimed in a statement issued by an Al-Qaida dissident group, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (Mujao).
Mujao is said to have split from the main al-Qaida group in the region, Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, in order to focus on spreading jihad in West Africa.
Mali has been rocked by political instability after the government was overthrown by a military coup.
The junta said it was forced to act after the government was unable to stop the Tuareg-backed rebellion in the north.
Since taking charge, however, the junta has been unable to stop the Tuaregs, who have now been joined by other Islamist groups.
Coup leader Army Captain Amadou Sanogo met with the country's parliamentary speaker, Dioncounda Traoré, to discuss a transition back to constitutional rule.
Traoré is set to be sworn in as interim president to oversee a transitional period and to organise elections.

Read more: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/32...#ixzz1rdmM62Df

[davidbfpo]

Since the original story is based on a 'security sources', one of them a Malian, I would use a large "pinch of salt" and the reputable analysis in Post 122 made no reference to a Nigerian Boko Harem presence. Given the very confusing situation in Northern Mali, specifically Timbucktu, alongside the clear interests of 'security sources' to link Boko Harem to events in Mali I think I'll wait for a lot more before making a decision.

Convincing others, in particular Algeria, France, Nigeria and USA that there is a linkage is the motive.

[Marshal Murat]

If ECOWAS is unwilling/unable to deploy soldiers to Mali, what is the possibility of a French Foreign Legion intervention from France after the elections to either "hold the line" against further Taureg advances or deploy with Malian troops? I am not all that familiar with relations between Mali and France, but I would think there is a precedent in Francophone West African states.