I took yesterday a virtual tour of northern Mali to get a better understanding of the geography and the demographics going with it. If we estimate that somewhat less of a million live in those three nothern provinces then it is important to point out that the vast majority of those is of course living along and south of the Niger. Dayuhan already cited the conflicts between Tuareg and islamist groups to which one has to add the mixed ethic and linguistic make-up.
So the population living under the de-facto rule of the militant groups is rather small and it is difficult to find prove of wide-spread support, certainly not of a single faction or movement. To achieve their recent military success the specific groups didn't to need much manpower or much popular support. To me it seems likely that the jihadis are relative few, transnational, well armed and decently trained and led for the standards of the regions. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.
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