Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[Uboat509]

...and why shouldn't they?

Because they are not a single homogenous group, but rather a series of affiliated tribes spread across several states. Even if they were to get an independent homeland, the lands that they traditionally inhabit are some of the least viable lands in the Sahel. They are heavily dependent on aid from the states that they inhabit and foreign (NGO) aid. Any new Tuareg state would just be another economic basket case that would require extensive aid just to survive, never mind grow.

Most of the Tuareg that I knew in Niger harbored no particular interest in an independent Tuareg homeland. They just wanted to be better integrated into the states in which they lived. I can certainly sympathize with that. The Tuareg have had it hard. They do not fit in well with either the black Africans in the south nor the Arabs to the north. Niger's previous president liked to use the fear of Tuareg insurrection as a kind of wag the dog ploy. If memory serves, Mali's president did some of that as well. For their part, the Tuareg have been associated with many things that have not necessarily endeared them to the general public in the states they inhabit, including smuggling and slavery. Those associations are, of course, exaggerated but they are not totally unjustified, but then there are not many ways to make a living where many of them live.

[Stan]

More from the front lines...

Our correspondent says it is possible that the coup may falter, pointing out that the mutinous troops are poorly equipped, led by a mid-ranking soldier and they do not have the backing of all Malian forces.

The well-trained and organized Red Berets unit is loyal to the president and he is believed to be under their protection, our reporter says.

If those officers decide to push back, they could perhaps overturn the coup, he says.

[KingJaja]

Even if the coup falters, it will have an adverse impact on the Malian army. Coups led by senior officers tend to leave the command structure intact. Junior officers coups, on the other hand, tend to destroy the structure of the army.

If ATT quells this coup, he'll have to restructure the army.

All the better for the Tauregs/Al Qaeda.

[J Wolfsberger]

All the better for the Tauregs/Al Qaeda.

From what (admittedly) little I know, the Tuareg don't seem to have a culture that would be receptive to Salafist teaching and practices. Which leads to this question: Is Al Qaeda using the Tuareg, or are the Tuareg using Al Qaeda?

[KingJaja]

From what (admittedly) little I know, the Tuareg don't seem to have a culture that would be receptive to Salafist teaching and practices. Which leads to this question: Is Al Qaeda using the Tuareg, or are the Tuareg using Al Qaeda?

A little of both.

Nigerian Christianity wasn't an American "word of faith" style thing thirty years ago, it is today. You couldn't get a Nigerian Muslim to do suicide bombing ten years ago, you can today.

Have you heard about Usman Dan Fodio? The Fulani weren't particularly known for piety in Northern Nigeria until he came around 200 years ago. (They aren't that well known for piety outside Nigeria - they are the "Jallows" and the "Diallos" )

Circumstances change, people change. After seeing the rapid pace of change in Africa over my short lifetime, I believe that anything is possible.

[davidbfpo]

The BBC have a reporter in Mali:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17474946

A BBC analyst adds some context in 'Gaddafi's influence in Mali's coup':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17481114

[JMA]

Because they are not a single homogenous group, but rather a series of affiliated tribes spread across several states. Even if they were to get an independent homeland, the lands that they traditionally inhabit are some of the least viable lands in the Sahel. They are heavily dependent on aid from the states that they inhabit and foreign (NGO) aid. Any new Tuareg state would just be another economic basket case that would require extensive aid just to survive, never mind grow.

Most of the Tuareg that I knew in Niger harbored no particular interest in an independent Tuareg homeland. They just wanted to be better integrated into the states in which they lived. I can certainly sympathize with that. The Tuareg have had it hard. They do not fit in well with either the black Africans in the south nor the Arabs to the north. Niger's previous president liked to use the fear of Tuareg insurrection as a kind of wag the dog ploy. If memory serves, Mali's president did some of that as well. For their part, the Tuareg have been associated with many things that have not necessarily endeared them to the general public in the states they inhabit, including smuggling and slavery. Those associations are, of course, exaggerated but they are not totally unjustified, but then there are not many ways to make a living where many of them live.

And the USA is a single homogenous group? Afghanistan (a country which the US seems to want to keep together at all costs) comprises a homogenous group?

In my Southern African travels I have noted the one 'thing' that really gets Africans angry is the smart solutions for Africa's problems thought up by so-called 'smart' people in the US with little or no experience or understanding of Africa.

If the Tuareg peoples (note the plural) consolidated into single 'homeland' would not be able to form a viable state (in your opinion) why would it be acceptable for their 'area' to be carved up among a handful of surrounding states where the Tuaregs would be 'looked after' like a parasitic minority by the (certainly not affluent) racially/ethnically/religiously (tick as applicable) different majority?

I don't want to question your sources, or your reading of the local situation as I don't know what exposure you had in Mali... I have none. I would suggest that as a general comment the 'research' carried out by foreigners before forming an opinion is 99% too limited and as such leads to incorrect conclusions being drawn.

(On this point I remember being told by a US female USAID worker that tribalism no longer existed in Mozambique. I asked her how she had arrived at that decision and she replied that her local driver (who she was screwing) had told her. For those who don't know there is a tendency among educated and semi-educated Africans to deny the existence of tribalism as this would somehow confirm the backward status of Africa.)

[Stan]

(On this point I remember being told by a US female USAID worker that tribalism no longer existed in Mozambique. I asked her how she had arrived at that decision and she replied that her local driver (who she was screwing) had told her. For those who don't know there is a tendency among educated and semi-educated Africans to deny the existence of tribalism as this would somehow confirm the backward status of Africa.)

They (some of us) also deny the fact that cannibalism exists. At least until they see a body face down in a ditch with no meat on the calves
The favorite sources for intel in Kinshasa were the cooks. I could barely wait for the Monday briefings having just drove around the city with Tom to make sure we actually saw what we would report on. Strange concept, knowing what you are talking about

[JMA]

They (some of us) also deny the fact that cannibalism exists. At least until they see a body face down in a ditch with no meat on the calves
The favorite sources for intel in Kinshasa were the cooks. I could barely wait for the Monday briefings having just drove around the city with Tom to make sure we actually saw what we would report on. Strange concept, knowing what you are talking about

Cannibals in the DRC?

In Zimbabwe you need to watch out for the 'sperm hunters' (YCMTSU)

[Little Doughnut]

Can anyone link me to some more current info on USG security capacity building efforts in Mali?

In 2010, according to DSCA they received a paltry 200k in FMF monies. But, the Trans Saharan Counter Terrorism Initiative is funded under a different line by Congress. Am I correct? Is the TSCTI primarily implemented by AFRICOM? From what I can ascertain, AID and DoS also have a role, but I'm concerned more with the CT training part of it.

Essentially what I'm trying to answer is: How much does the USG have invested in counter-AQIM efforts in Mali and how will these efforts be set back by the recent coup?

I know the USG tends to work with whomever is convenient, but I doubt relations with the ruling junior officers will continue as normal.

I'd love a link with some more solid information on training, but please do weigh in any way you see fit.

[Stan]

Can anyone link me to some more current info on USG security capacity building efforts in Mali?

Hey Ben, Welcome aboard !
As you probably already know, other than DOS and USAID, there is no one stop shopping for the info you seek. DSCA doesn't actually open their data up to the world, but their data by country is contained in the overall picture from State. We still have an SF team there now and from what I can tell they have ceased training and ops.

In 2010, according to DSCA they received a paltry 200k in FMF monies. But, the Trans Saharan Counter Terrorism Initiative is funded under a different line by Congress. Am I correct? Is the TSCTI primarily implemented by AFRICOM? From what I can ascertain, AID and DoS also have a role, but I'm concerned more with the CT training part of it.

200K in FMF may sound paltry, but Mali is getting between 140 and 170 million a year total (based on DOS and AID info, covering everything from agriculture development to military training for CT). Then there's a 5-year 460 million package from MCC to boot. All this cash may be funded under different lines, but it's still all State's money regardless of which pot you get it from.

... and how will these efforts be set back by the recent coup?

Other than humanitarian aid, all the other money and training are on hold.

I know the USG tends to work with whomever is convenient, but I doubt relations with the ruling junior officers will continue as normal.

That actually is no longer the case and I doubt the USG will be communicating with coup plotters regarding FMF or any other assistance.

Regards, Stan

[Little Doughnut]

Stan, thanks for the swift and thorough response!

Now that the USG can do little more than sit on the sidelines and hope the forthcoming election happens on time (ha), I wonder how much capacity has been built for their two-brigade military to handle AQIM and the Tuareg insurgency? According to the WSJ the Tuaregs are about to roll unopposed into Timbuktu. Even though the Tuareg and AQIM aren't necessarily one in the same, I smell the potential for a safe(r) haven to arise out of this.

[Stan]

Cannibals in the DRC?

In Zimbabwe you need to watch out for the 'sperm hunters' (YCMTSU)

JMA,
Far worse things have happened to me in Africa !
But, to be subdued and forced to have sex... That has yet to happen

Susan Dhliwayo claims she pulled her car over recently to pick up a group of male hitchhikers and they refused to get in, because they feared they were going to be raped.

"Now, men fear women. They said: 'we can't go with you because we don't trust you'," 19-year-old Miss Dhliwayo recounted.

Local media have reported victims of the highway prowlers being drugged, subdued at gun or knife point – even with a live snake in one case – given a sexual stimulant and forced into repeated sex before being dumped on the roadside.

[Uboat509]

And the USA is a single homogenous group? Afghanistan (a country which the US seems to want to keep together at all costs) comprises a homogenous group?

My point was simply that these groups do not necessarily want the same things. Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion since there is a very real possibility that that they do not all want these things. Also the fact that they are so spread out begs the question of whose homeland do they want? In other words, do the Malian Tuareg want the homeland to be in what is now northern Mali? What about the Nigerien Tuareg? Are the Tuareg in others areas going to be willing to relocate to this new homeland?

In my Southern African travels I have noted the one 'thing' that really gets Africans angry is the smart solutions for Africa's problems thought up by so-called 'smart' people in the US with little or no experience or understanding of Africa.

Read my post again. I did not advocate any "fixes." I was, in fact, advocating against fixes imposed by foreign governments i.e. forcing existing states to cede sovereign land for the creation of a Tuareg homeland.

If the Tuareg peoples (note the plural) consolidated into single 'homeland' would not be able to form a viable state (in your opinion) why would it be acceptable for their 'area' to be carved up among a handful of surrounding states where the Tuaregs would be 'looked after' like a parasitic minority by the (certainly not affluent) racially/ethnically/religiously (tick as applicable) different majority?

My comment about the viability of the lands was regarding the terrain, weather and lack of resources. I do not think that I will get a lot of argument that the Sahel is one of the harshest places to live in the world. If they were to create a new state there how would that state feed its people, never mind establish a viable economy? I have no idea what the last part of your statement was about.

[KingJaja]

This looks like total mayhem. It seems as if Mali has been set back a few years.

BAMAKO (Reuters) - Bread and fuel ran low in Mali's capital Bamako on Friday as mutineering soldiers looted petrol stations and shops and hijacked cars, residents said, while coup leaders sought to consolidate their grip on power.

The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.

But Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, aiming to capitalise on the confusion in the distant capital, pushed south to occupy positions abandoned by government forces, sources said.

Captain Amadou Sanogo, the head of a body set up by the mutineers, suggested on Thursday that soldiers were trying to arrest Toure.

The president's whereabouts were unknown, though unconfirmed reports said he was being protected by loyalist troops in the city.

Despite Sanogo's calls to the soldiers to stop pillaging and respect private property, residents said looting was continuing and had caused shortages while fuel prices have doubled to over 1,300 CFA francs a litre in about 24 hours.

"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.

Around the city, most shops, petrol stations and businesses were closed while some residents ventured out in search of bread and petrol.

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNew...120323?sp=true

[Stan]

This looks like total mayhem. It seems as if Mali has been set back a few years.

Sadly, now set back several decades. This sounds like just about every upheaval I've had the pleasure of witnessing.

It's one thing to say you're doing it for your people and country...

The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.

And, it's entirely another to perform this, with the general consent and participation of the population...

"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.

This would be more to be concerned about and just where it's heading after Mali

flooded with men and weapons after Libya's civil war

[KingJaja]

You are exactly right. Ethiopia and Sudan have already been divided. Somalia is not too far from it right now. It is very possible that your own Nigeria will see the same in the next few years.

The last 50 years has seen African nations gain independence, the next 50 will see a redrawing of the map - a map that will reflect more the real nations, kingdoms and ethnic groups of the continent.

And, IMHO, it has nothing to do with whining about a colonial legacy, but more about the true makeup of Africa.

In Nigeria's case it is not a question of whether, but when and how.

Look at this map:



On overlay of ethno-linguistic groups and political boundaries (the definitions here are pretty broad).

[JMA]

In Nigeria's case it is not a question of whether, but when and how.

Look at this map:

[snip] to save space

On overlay of ethno-linguistic groups and political boundaries (the definitions here are pretty broad).

Very, very broad.

Take the case of 'little' Malawi for instance. (from here)

Malawi's population is made up of the Chewa, Nyanja, Tumbuka, Yao, Lomwe, Sena, Tonga, Ngoni and Ngonde native ethnic groups, as well as populations of Asians and Europeans. Major languages include Chichewa, an official language spoken by over 57% of the population, Chinyanja (12.8%), Chiyao (10.1%) and Chitumbuka (9.5%).

Other native languages are Malawian Lomwe, spoken by around 250,000 in the southeast of the country; Kokola, spoken by around 200,000 people also in the southeast; Lambya, spoken by around 45,000 in the northwestern tip; Ndali, spoken by around 70,000; Nyakyusa-Ngonde, spoken by around 300,000 in northern Malawi; Malawian Sena, spoken by around 270,000 in southern Malawi; and Tonga, spoken by around 170,000 in the north.

There remains significant ethnic 'awareness' in Malawi which is reflected in voting patterns to this day.

The smaller groups within Malawi are often found in larger number just across the border. Inside the country their areas are often fairly accurately demarcated by 'district' boundaries.

If there was the will...

[JMA]

My point was simply that these groups do not necessarily want the same things. Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion since there is a very real possibility that that they do not all want these things. Also the fact that they are so spread out begs the question of whose homeland do they want? In other words, do the Malian Tuareg want the homeland to be in what is now northern Mali? What about the Nigerien Tuareg? Are the Tuareg in others areas going to be willing to relocate to this new homeland?

Read my post again. I did not advocate any "fixes." I was, in fact, advocating against fixes imposed by foreign governments i.e. forcing existing states to cede sovereign land for the creation of a Tuareg homeland.

My comment about the viability of the lands was regarding the terrain, weather and lack of resources. I do not think that I will get a lot of argument that the Sahel is one of the harshest places to live in the world. If they were to create a new state there how would that state feed its people, never mind establish a viable economy? I have no idea what the last part of your statement was about.

I don't want to get into a back and forth with you over this but I need to comment.

You need to accept that comment like "Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion" must surely also apply to what you were told and what you believe, yes?

Your 'fix' is not to do anything... so the war will continue. Some fix that is.

Like indigenous people in other extreme climatic areas maybe they just want to continue with their traditional way of life. Maybe they don't want a modern state with malls, Walmart, MacDonald's and Starbucks. No matter how backward we may think their lifestyle is maybe they like it just like that ... and are prepared to fight for it.

[KingJaja]

What do you think?

An interesting nugget from the AP's latest dispatch from Bamako:

A diplomat who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press said that [Capt. Amadou Haya] Sanogo, the coup leader, was among the elite tier of soldiers selected by the U.S. Embassy to receive military counterterrorism training in America. Sanogo, the official said, traveled "several times" to America for the special training.

That means that he had to pass a background check indicating that he was not complicit in any human rights crimes. The official requested not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

As blogger Laura Seay quips, "your tax dollars at work."

The U.S. hasn't yet made a decision on whether to cut off military assistance to Mali following the coup. According to State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland, annual U.S. assistance to Mali is around $137 million, about half of which is humanitarian aid. France suspended its military cooperation with Mali yesterday.

See also: Elizabeth Dickinson's post from 2010 on why coups always seem to be led by captains or colonels not generals.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/...ined_in_the_us

About Dickinson - We've never had a successful junior officer coup in Nigeria.