Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[davidbfpo]

Just found a short CFR report that Nigeria is reducing its ECOWAS contribution from 600 to 450:http://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2013/0...edge-for-mali/ Note I have yet to see a single ECOWAS soldier arrive in Mali.

Then the Canadian SOF have a small training team in place:

..they are primarily there to advise Malian troops and provide training in communications, planning and first aid....providing counter-terrorism skills training and officer training. The teams number fewer than 15 soldiers.....small teams will continue to move in and out of Mali as the country requires training.

Link via South Africa:http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.ph...mber_202260698

[Piranha]

Following a day of fierce demonstrations in its capital Bamako as well as in the city of Kati, Mali's government orders schools there to be closed "until conditions of serenity and quiet have returned". Link to the communique, in French: http://www.coopfaso.net/didi/communi...bamako-et-kati

Jeune Afrique has a report on the demonstrations

pour reclamer des concertations sur la transition, la liberation du Nord et le depart de Dioncounda Traore.

which can be found at http://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/...nord-mali.html

The government calls upon the population "to unite behind the army, making an effort to reconquer the regions in the north of the country".

[davidbfpo]

Adam Nossiter, the West Africa bureau chief for The New York Times, has been reporting on the Islamist takeover in the north....

Link to NPR radio interview:http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPl...41&m=168548311 and excerpts:http://www.npr.org/2013/01/03/168483...ist-stronghold

[davidbfpo]

The BBC reports an emergency UN Security Council meeting yesterday, calling for:

the "swift deployment" of an international force to Mali.

The diplomacy appears to be a response to some reporting of both sides advancing.

In a twist that takes the "biscuit":

On Tuesday, African Union chairman Thomas Boni Yayi said Nato should send forces to Mali to fight the Islamists. He said the Malian conflict was a global crisis which required Nato to intervene, in the way it had done in Afghanistan to fight the Taleban and al-Qaeda. Nato troops should work alongside an African force in Mali, he said.

The African Union has sub-contracted ECOWAS to intervene, although without any money of other physical support. Ah, what is ECOWAS doing? I have looked through previous posts:

a) April 4th 2012 'ECOWAS is preparing a force up to 3,000'
b) April 27th force 'ready to go'
c) September 24th Mali agreed to host ECOWAS
d) November 12th 'ECOWAS agreed to deploy, six months to prepare'
e) December 2012 UNSC gives support to ECOWAS

The BBC from New York reports:

For logistical reasons the African force already approved by the UN was not expected to even begin its offensive before September or October...

Pathetic. I remain convinced this ECOWAS force will not deploy in Mali and even if it did it will never take the offensive. Now the African Union is throwing away its stance on no Western intervention, calling for NATO to fight in Mali!

Listening and reading the reporting it is almost as if Mali has been lost and AQ now has a new base - in a place far less hospitable than Afghanistan, the FATA and Somalia. As one expert has noted the "rebel north" is comparable in size to France (675k sq kilometers) or Texas (696k sq kms). Let me add somewhere we are familiar with, Afghanistan is 647k sq kms.

[davidbfpo]

The Sahel has recently shown glimpses of hope as jihadist groups have overtaken northern sections of Mali in the wake of Libya’s collapse. Despite the upheaval in Mali, disparate groups appear to be contesting each other’s claims to the desert. Isolated in remote portions of the Sahara and almost entirely dependent on illicit funding streams, the Sahel offers few advantages as an enduring global safe haven for al-Qaeda and many logistical burdens.

The emphasis is mine and the passage is a small part of Clint Watts wider review of AQ for FPRI in July 2012:http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2012/2012...s.al-qaeda.pdf

[davidbfpo]

Sketchy reporting that the French have intervened, with a small ground presence and air power - after a request from Mali:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20991719

One hopes the cited seven French hostages are not now executed.

Stabilising the unclear line between the "rebels" and the Bamako government appears to be the initial objective.

[davidbfpo]

A PPT map used by the French MoD indicates what the French have done:http://www.afriscoop.net/journal/spip.php?article6762

Close air support by helicopters and aircraft, using in-flight refuelling; with troops to Bamako using Transall medium transports and what looks like a Breguet Atlantic ASW aircraft for C2 & ELINT (as per P3 Orions etc used elsewhere).

Note the ECOWAS nations have agreed to immediate deployment and the commander is a Nigerian - not sure what happened to the French general!