Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[Uboat509]

And the USA is a single homogenous group? Afghanistan (a country which the US seems to want to keep together at all costs) comprises a homogenous group?

My point was simply that these groups do not necessarily want the same things. Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion since there is a very real possibility that that they do not all want these things. Also the fact that they are so spread out begs the question of whose homeland do they want? In other words, do the Malian Tuareg want the homeland to be in what is now northern Mali? What about the Nigerien Tuareg? Are the Tuareg in others areas going to be willing to relocate to this new homeland?

In my Southern African travels I have noted the one 'thing' that really gets Africans angry is the smart solutions for Africa's problems thought up by so-called 'smart' people in the US with little or no experience or understanding of Africa.

Read my post again. I did not advocate any "fixes." I was, in fact, advocating against fixes imposed by foreign governments i.e. forcing existing states to cede sovereign land for the creation of a Tuareg homeland.

If the Tuareg peoples (note the plural) consolidated into single 'homeland' would not be able to form a viable state (in your opinion) why would it be acceptable for their 'area' to be carved up among a handful of surrounding states where the Tuaregs would be 'looked after' like a parasitic minority by the (certainly not affluent) racially/ethnically/religiously (tick as applicable) different majority?

My comment about the viability of the lands was regarding the terrain, weather and lack of resources. I do not think that I will get a lot of argument that the Sahel is one of the harshest places to live in the world. If they were to create a new state there how would that state feed its people, never mind establish a viable economy? I have no idea what the last part of your statement was about.

[KingJaja]

This looks like total mayhem. It seems as if Mali has been set back a few years.

BAMAKO (Reuters) - Bread and fuel ran low in Mali's capital Bamako on Friday as mutineering soldiers looted petrol stations and shops and hijacked cars, residents said, while coup leaders sought to consolidate their grip on power.

The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.

But Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, aiming to capitalise on the confusion in the distant capital, pushed south to occupy positions abandoned by government forces, sources said.

Captain Amadou Sanogo, the head of a body set up by the mutineers, suggested on Thursday that soldiers were trying to arrest Toure.

The president's whereabouts were unknown, though unconfirmed reports said he was being protected by loyalist troops in the city.

Despite Sanogo's calls to the soldiers to stop pillaging and respect private property, residents said looting was continuing and had caused shortages while fuel prices have doubled to over 1,300 CFA francs a litre in about 24 hours.

"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.

Around the city, most shops, petrol stations and businesses were closed while some residents ventured out in search of bread and petrol.

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNew...120323?sp=true

[Stan]

This looks like total mayhem. It seems as if Mali has been set back a few years.

Sadly, now set back several decades. This sounds like just about every upheaval I've had the pleasure of witnessing.

It's one thing to say you're doing it for your people and country...

The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.

And, it's entirely another to perform this, with the general consent and participation of the population...

"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.

This would be more to be concerned about and just where it's heading after Mali

flooded with men and weapons after Libya's civil war

[KingJaja]

You are exactly right. Ethiopia and Sudan have already been divided. Somalia is not too far from it right now. It is very possible that your own Nigeria will see the same in the next few years.

The last 50 years has seen African nations gain independence, the next 50 will see a redrawing of the map - a map that will reflect more the real nations, kingdoms and ethnic groups of the continent.

And, IMHO, it has nothing to do with whining about a colonial legacy, but more about the true makeup of Africa.

In Nigeria's case it is not a question of whether, but when and how.

Look at this map:



On overlay of ethno-linguistic groups and political boundaries (the definitions here are pretty broad).

[JMA]

In Nigeria's case it is not a question of whether, but when and how.

Look at this map:

[snip] to save space

On overlay of ethno-linguistic groups and political boundaries (the definitions here are pretty broad).

Very, very broad.

Take the case of 'little' Malawi for instance. (from here)

Malawi's population is made up of the Chewa, Nyanja, Tumbuka, Yao, Lomwe, Sena, Tonga, Ngoni and Ngonde native ethnic groups, as well as populations of Asians and Europeans. Major languages include Chichewa, an official language spoken by over 57% of the population, Chinyanja (12.8%), Chiyao (10.1%) and Chitumbuka (9.5%).

Other native languages are Malawian Lomwe, spoken by around 250,000 in the southeast of the country; Kokola, spoken by around 200,000 people also in the southeast; Lambya, spoken by around 45,000 in the northwestern tip; Ndali, spoken by around 70,000; Nyakyusa-Ngonde, spoken by around 300,000 in northern Malawi; Malawian Sena, spoken by around 270,000 in southern Malawi; and Tonga, spoken by around 170,000 in the north.

There remains significant ethnic 'awareness' in Malawi which is reflected in voting patterns to this day.

The smaller groups within Malawi are often found in larger number just across the border. Inside the country their areas are often fairly accurately demarcated by 'district' boundaries.

If there was the will...

[JMA]

My point was simply that these groups do not necessarily want the same things. Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion since there is a very real possibility that that they do not all want these things. Also the fact that they are so spread out begs the question of whose homeland do they want? In other words, do the Malian Tuareg want the homeland to be in what is now northern Mali? What about the Nigerien Tuareg? Are the Tuareg in others areas going to be willing to relocate to this new homeland?

Read my post again. I did not advocate any "fixes." I was, in fact, advocating against fixes imposed by foreign governments i.e. forcing existing states to cede sovereign land for the creation of a Tuareg homeland.

My comment about the viability of the lands was regarding the terrain, weather and lack of resources. I do not think that I will get a lot of argument that the Sahel is one of the harshest places to live in the world. If they were to create a new state there how would that state feed its people, never mind establish a viable economy? I have no idea what the last part of your statement was about.

I don't want to get into a back and forth with you over this but I need to comment.

You need to accept that comment like "Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion" must surely also apply to what you were told and what you believe, yes?

Your 'fix' is not to do anything... so the war will continue. Some fix that is.

Like indigenous people in other extreme climatic areas maybe they just want to continue with their traditional way of life. Maybe they don't want a modern state with malls, Walmart, MacDonald's and Starbucks. No matter how backward we may think their lifestyle is maybe they like it just like that ... and are prepared to fight for it.

[KingJaja]

What do you think?

An interesting nugget from the AP's latest dispatch from Bamako:

A diplomat who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press said that [Capt. Amadou Haya] Sanogo, the coup leader, was among the elite tier of soldiers selected by the U.S. Embassy to receive military counterterrorism training in America. Sanogo, the official said, traveled "several times" to America for the special training.

That means that he had to pass a background check indicating that he was not complicit in any human rights crimes. The official requested not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

As blogger Laura Seay quips, "your tax dollars at work."

The U.S. hasn't yet made a decision on whether to cut off military assistance to Mali following the coup. According to State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland, annual U.S. assistance to Mali is around $137 million, about half of which is humanitarian aid. France suspended its military cooperation with Mali yesterday.

See also: Elizabeth Dickinson's post from 2010 on why coups always seem to be led by captains or colonels not generals.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/...ined_in_the_us

About Dickinson - We've never had a successful junior officer coup in Nigeria.

[Stan]

What do you think?
About Dickinson - We've never had a successful junior officer coup in Nigeria.

I think the info leak should be hung for treason. Some of us (our taxes) wasted a ton of money for him/her to pine away abroad and dream up ways to leak info to the press.

On to the meat of the matter...

I've been sending indigenous military to US schools since 1985 and most come back with a desire to do something for their country (a noble cause). Most however do not end up doing anything with their education and the host country government almost always assigns these folks to something pathetically miniscule.

Exposing a foreigner to life in the US is part of the program - sell America. Some don't care at all for life in the US (several Estonians have told me so), but, I don't recall one African NCO or Officer not liking his/her experience there.

I am unaware of any study done to conclude that these soldiers came back from US training and became coup leaders. And, even if there was statistical evidence, what would we then conclude ? That the USA trained future coup leaders vs sending them to the schools originally intended ? Some of us have been watching too many Hollywood movies

About Dickinson - We've never had a successful junior officer coup in Nigeria.

Not sure if there's anecdotal evidence to support Elizabeth's theory. Mobutu was little more than a 6th grade educated sergeant and look what he accomplished

[Uboat509]

You need to accept that comment like "Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion" must surely also apply to what you were told and what you believe, yes?

I am not saying that anybody was lied to about what the Tuareg do or do not want. I am simply saying that, because they are such a sparse and widely spread group that none of them can be said to be speaking for all of them. I am sure that some Tuareg absolutely do want a homeland. I also know that some are not so interested and I cannot say that either point of view represents the majority view.

Your 'fix' is not to do anything... so the war will continue. Some fix that is.

My point is that I am not advocating any fix at all by foreign powers. This is not an issue that they can fix. Africa's problems will have to be solved by Africans. Foreign powers can provide some support for them in this but they cannot fix their problems for them.

Like indigenous people in other extreme climatic areas maybe they just want to continue with their traditional way of life. Maybe they don't want a modern state with malls, Walmart, MacDonald's and Starbucks. No matter how backward we may think their lifestyle is maybe they like it just like that ... and are prepared to fight for it.

I never said that they did want those things. Some do and some probably do not. I can say say, however, that none of them want to watch their children starve because the extreme climate that they live in has become more extreme to the point that it is probably not life sustaining anymore.
I did meet Tuareg who wanted to continue their nomadic herding lifestyle but the grazing is so poor now that livestock are dying off faster than they can replace them. That is not sustainable.

[JMA]

I am not saying that anybody was lied to about what the Tuareg do or do not want. I am simply saying that, because they are such a sparse and widely spread group that none of them can be said to be speaking for all of them. I am sure that some Tuareg absolutely do want a homeland. I also know that some are not so interested and I cannot say that either point of view represents the majority view.

My point is that I am not advocating any fix at all by foreign powers. This is not an issue that they can fix. Africa's problems will have to be solved by Africans. Foreign powers can provide some support for them in this but they cannot fix their problems for them.

I never said that they did want those things. Some do and some probably do not. I can say say, however, that none of them want to watch their children starve because the extreme climate that they live in has become more extreme to the point that it is probably not life sustaining anymore.
I did meet Tuareg who wanted to continue their nomadic herding lifestyle but the grazing is so poor now that livestock are dying off faster than they can replace them. That is not sustainable.

Thank you... this makes your position clear.