Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[tequila]

China offers support to Mali military in fight against Islamists

China offered to support Mali’s military in its fight against Islamist rebels who have seized northern parts of the country, said Guo Xueli, charge d’affaires at the Chinese Embassy.

“China firmly supports the position of Mali,” Guo said in an interview on state television yesterday in the capital, Bamako. “We are going to bring our assistance to the extent possible, specifically in the military where we already have a very old cooperation.”

Mali’s government has been battling Islamist rebels in the north of the country since they took control of the area from separatist ethnic Touareg fighters in May. The rebels took advantage of a political crisis in the south triggered by the ouster of President Amadou Toure in a March 22 coup.

A decided lack of specifics, but interesting nonetheless. One wonders what is so valuable in Mali to trigger said assistance?

[ganulv]

The former missionary to the French and governor to the Massachusettians made mention of the situation in Mali during last night’s presidential debate (good thing he made it early or I would have missed it as the proceedings eventually put me to sleep).

From the BBC News:

Two weeks ago, the UN Security Council gave the regional bloc Ecowas 45 days to draw up a plan with the details of its offer to send 3,000 troops to the vast desert region.

Having gotten an aerial view of northern Mali I am indeed curious as to what those 3,000 troops are going to be doing. Securing urban areas and select villages while drones and units which do not officially exist do nightwork?

[Fuchs]

vast desert region

Sigh.
As if it wasn't obvious that in a country with such a geography most of the action would be focused along the Niger river.

[ganulv]

Sigh.
As if it wasn't obvious that in a country with such a geography most of the action would be focused along the Niger river.

Running the insurgents out of that area is one thing. Running them down in the desert afterwards is another. The Tuaregs have been known to make do there.

[Fuchs]

Running the insurgents out of that area is one thing. Running them down in the desert afterwards is another. The Tuaregs have been known to make do there.

Maybe, but right now the topic is that the government has lost half of the densely-populated area to an uprising in Mao' third stage.

[ganulv]

Maybe, but right now the topic is that the government has lost half of the densely-populated area to an uprising in Mao' third stage.

The fact that there wasn’t much in the way of the first two stages beforehand says a lot about the Malian government’s “hold” on things previous to that. And suggests bad things to come for people in the streets of Bamako after the operation gets underway.

Just spitballin’ here, but maybe someone could offer the MNLA a federated, semi-autonomous state in exchange for their aid in running Ansar Dine and the MUJAO to ground?

[ganulv]

Sigh.
As if it wasn't obvious that in a country with such a geography most of the action would be focused along the Niger river.

So am I off base in thinking maybe the force will headquarter in Mopti and send one battalion up RN15 and another towards Timbuktu? And that it won’t happen until harmattan season is over at the earliest?

[Fuchs]

Hmm, trying to win with geography details?

Look, "vast desert region" communicates to me a difficulty to exercise control and to find the opposition. That's not leading to what's really relevant there imo.

No matter what hold the government's opponents have on isolated settlements; the country is really about the Niger river and its green belt.
An intervention force would hardly focus on some outlier settlements - even if they are epicentres of the opposition - and meanwhile ignore the green belt where most of the population under 'control' of the opposition lives at.
An intervention force would hardly have the manpower to occupy much with 3,000 men (likely less than 50% teeth) and the government of Mali is no doubt more interested in high-pay-off control of Niger green belt settlements than in low pay-off occupation of unfriendly outlier settlements.

So yes, I expect that intervention forces would focus on driving the opposition forces out at the Niger river, possibly with two hook movements to set up checkpoints against fleeing opposition forces.
I doubt that they would go for lesser settlements first, and I even doubt that foreigners would attempt to solve this fundamental conflict themselves or to suppress it in the long term.
The French are more known for assistance or raid-like missions (even outright punitive expeditions as in Cote d'Ivoire and with the bombing of a Libyan airbase in the 80's). To rout the opposition forces along the river would fit into their pattern imo.


This whole "vast desert region" thing reminded me a lot about the talk of "battle-hardened Iraqi desert army" in 1990, when even a superficial look at maps showed that the Iraqi army had "fought" for eight years in hills, swamps and little desert.

[ganulv]

I doubt that they would go for lesser settlements first, and I even doubt that foreigners would attempt to solve this fundamental conflict themselves or to suppress it in the long term.

The muddle is that there are two things going on—a secular separatist movement in the form of the MNLA and an Islamist insurgency in the form of Ansar Dine and the MUJAO. I don’t think foreigners would or should care about Malian–Tuareg issues, either, but there seems to be a real possibility that the GWoT paradigm is going to be applied here.

[davidbfpo]

As always a thorough analytical comment on al-Wasat, with multiple links, on this many faceted issue:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2012/1...hters-in-mali/

I was curious to note the reports of fighters moving to Mali from Tindouf, a city in western Algeria, better known as the base for the secular nationalist group Polisario. There are thousands of trained, experienced fighters there and their families (in exile from Western Sahara, now absorbed into Morocco).