Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[davidbfpo]

A coup in Mali is clearly quite different to other African coups:

President Amadou Toumani Toure said on Wednesday that he remained in the country, free and in good health

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17562066 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17543387

As the Tuaregs advance diplomats in ECOWAS are stirring themselves, threatening economic sanctions and in Mali itself the banks are busy as deposits are withdrawn.

[KingJaja]

I hear the Tuareg rebels have taken over Timbuktu and have declared their independent state. What are the implications?

[davidbfpo]

KingJaJa,

Yes the 'fall' of Timbucktu has been reported by the BBC: Newshttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17576725

You added:

What are the implications?

Typing aloud then I would suggest these:

a) the impact within Mali on the new regime - nearly 500 miles away - and how much Mali and the people think the city is worth
b) will the reported dtente between the rebels and local Arabs hold?
c) the impact on the calculus of ECOWAS on imposing sanctions and possibly intervention. Will petrol supplies be cut-off notably; no fuel, no combat.
d) the impact of such a 'fall' of a city once having a mythological status well beyond the region, notably with Algeria, France and the USA - in that order
e) can the 'rebels' actually administer the Tuareg region, including towns and without some of the extremism associated with AQIM?
f) an ECOWAS intervention leads to an effective partition, I doubt the coalition - even with external support - will seek combat in the north.

All from my faraway "armchair". Helped by this BBC analysis Is Mali's coup doomed?:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17573294

[KingJaja]

David,

1. Will ECOWAS be forced to side with the junta, because applying sanctions on the junta merely emboldens the rebels? (The rebels want nothing more than a weakened Malian military)

2. What impact will this have on other separatist movements in Africa. Africa is full of artificial states and as I said earlier, the political maps will have to be redrawn this century. We had South Sudan and now this. About the viability of the proposed state - I don't think the Tauregs are less economically viable than either Nigeria or Mauritania.

[davidbfpo]

My replies are in bold after the question.

David,

1. Will ECOWAS be forced to side with the junta, because applying sanctions on the junta merely emboldens the rebels? (The rebels want nothing more than a weakened Malian military)No

2. What impact will this have on other separatist movements in Africa. Africa is full of artificial states and as I said earlier, the political maps will have to be redrawn this century. We had South Sudan and now this. About the viability of the proposed state - I don't think the Tauregs are less economically viable than either Nigeria or Mauritania.Almost none, simply due to the population size, remoteness and minimal impact on African affairs

[davidbfpo]

A BBC report announces:

Mali's Tuareg separatist rebels have declared an end to military operations, a statement on their website says. The Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA) say they have captured enough territory to form their own state. But the position of Islamist insurgents, who fought alongside the Tuareg in northern Mali, is unclear.

There are other updates in the report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17622760

In Timbucktu it looks grim. citing agencies:

The head of Ansar Dine, notorious rebel Iyad Ag Ghaly, has set up base at the town's military camp and has been flanked by three of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb's top leaders. Ag Ghaly's men have fought alongside the secular MNLA which wants independence for the desert nomads who originate in the area, however the two groups have very different aims and appear to have fallen out.
Residents and security sources report the Islamists have chased the Tuareg out of Timbuktu, burning their flag and replacing it with their black jihad flag.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...s-in-Mali.html

A snippet following helping two Brits to leave the city:

The couple’s saviors were units of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), a nomadic Tuareg force...which did not have an Islamist agenda.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/exp...tu-escape.html

[KingJaja]

In Mali we are dealing with several situations simultaneously.

1. A Military overthrow of an elected civilian government.
2. A mutiny by an ill-equipped and poorly motivated army.
3. The breakdown of military discipline and the command structure of the Army.
4. A popular revolt against the central government by a section of the population (Tuaregs).
5. Infiltration by Al Qaeda.
6. A weak state on the verge of implosion.

Mali urgently needs a renegotiation of its internal political architecture, but the motley crew in Bamako are not in the best position to do it. Will sanctions help stabilise the situation in Mali? I doubt it.

What should the international community do, because instability in Mali puts Niger and Northern Nigeria at risk.

Blind emphasis on point 5 (Al Qaeda infiltration) could be extremely counter-productive

[Uboat509]

David,

About the viability of the proposed state - I don't think the Tauregs are less economically viable than either Nigeria or Mauritania.

Nigeria has a lot of oil. If the finance minister can do what she has set out to do, is a lot of potential for growth there. There is probably even enough to spread some prosperity to the North. That would undermine support for BH, which, in turn, might lead to more foreign direct investment as the region became more stable which then leads to more stability and so on. Unfortunately that is a pretty big if.

Mauritania does not but its economy is about 81% industry and services. That is a big improvement over an agrarian economy. Their DDP per capita (PPP) is only about $2200 but that is an improvement over 2009. Their real growth, as measured by GDP, was about 5% over the last two years (after a 1.2% contraction in 2009). That isn't a blistering pace but not bad for a developing world state with no mineral wealth.

Overall Mali's growth over the last two years has not been bad (also about 5%) but its economy is still ~39% agriculture based and GDP per capita (PPP) is still around $1300. Much of the industry and services are located south of Timbuktu. For that matter, if memory serves, most of the best agricultural land is south of Timbuktu as well. The increasing desertification of Sub-Saharan Africa has left much of the land in the north of countries like Mali and Niger unfit for much agriculture. One of the problems that has led to this uprising is the limited economic support that the Tuareg have gotten from Bamako. I am not sure how creating a separate state is going to fix that.

[Fuchs]

Mauritania does not but its economy is about 81% industry and services. That is a big improvement over an agrarian economy. Their DDP per capita (PPP) is only about $2200 but that is an improvement over 2009. Their real growth, as measured by GDP, was about 5% over the last two years (after a 1.2% contraction in 2009). That isn't a blistering pace but not bad for a developing world state with no mineral wealth.

IIRC Mauritania has substantial mineral riches and wikipedia happens to agree:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mauritania


Btw, IIRC the Touareg do prefer to be called Imuhagh. "Touareg" is a foreigner-coined derogatory term; IIRC it means something like "dirty ones".

[Uboat509]

IIRC Mauritania has substantial mineral riches and wikipedia happens to agree:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mauritania


Btw, IIRC the Touareg do prefer to be called Imuhagh. "Touareg" is a foreigner-coined derogatory term; IIRC it means something like "dirty ones".

I pulled my data off of the CIA world factbook. Perhaps I overstated that they have no mineral wealth but compared to places like Nigeria and Libya, they do not have a lot of mineral wealth. They are focused more on inviting foreign direct investment than on exploiting mineral wealth.

As for the name Tuareg, that is the name that all of the ones that I have known used for themselves. I never heard any of them complain about that and most of them would not have hesitated to do so if they were so inclined. They are not a meek people.