Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[KingJaja]

I pulled my data off of the CIA world factbook. Perhaps I overstated that they have no mineral wealth but compared to places like Nigeria and Libya, they do not have a lot of mineral wealth. They are focused more on inviting foreign direct investment than on exploiting mineral wealth.

As for the name Tuareg, that is the name that all of the ones that I have known used for themselves. I never heard any of them complain about that and most of them would not have hesitated to do so if they were so inclined. They are not a meek people.

Always read statistics about Africa with an awareness that nobody really knows what they are talking about.

In the early 2000's, I worked in a consulting firm, based on ITU statistics, there was no way Nigeria could support 70 million mobile phone subscribers. After all, the GDP per capita figures were extremely low and we only had 300,000 land lines.

Naturally, Western firms shied away from investing in Nigeria and the South Africans took over that market. Vodafone realised its mistake and tried its best to get back into the market, but it was too late.

We've tried to do market assessments for Indian firms and firms all over the World. But we just don't know what is going on because data is so unreliable. Census figures are sometimes wildly overstated (or understated). NGOs overstate mortality figures and poverty statistics to increase funding from donor governments. And official statistics are extremely dodgy.

[Fuchs]

A hundreds of km long desert rail line between iron ore deposits and a harbour requires no statistics in order to tell me that they have mineral resources to speak of.

[KingJaja]

Has the inevitable breakup of Africa's artificial states begun in earnest?

"We solemnly proclaim the independence of Azawad as from today," said Mossa Ag Attaher, who added that the rebels would respect "the borders with other states."
Armed Islamists had stormed the Algerian consulate in northeastern Mali and abducted seven diplomats on Thursday amid fears Al Qaeda-linked fighters are turning the country into a rogue state and fuelling a humanitarian crisis.
As the Tuareg trumpeted the success of a decades-old struggle to "liberate" their homeland, their fundamentalist comrades-turned-rivals began imposing sharia law in parts of northern Mali.
The MNLA said as a result of their successful conquest of an area they call the Azawad, they were halting all military operations from midnight on Thursday.
Ag Attaher declared: "We completely accept the role and responsibility that behoves us to secure this territory. We have ended a very important fight, that of liberation ... now the biggest task commences."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...of-Azawad.html

[davidbfpo]

A BBC report that starts with:

Coup leaders in Mali have agreed to stand down and allow a transition to civilian rule, as part of a deal struck with regional bloc Ecowas. In return, the bloc will lift trade and economic sanctions and grant amnesty to the ruling junta, mediators said.

Later I noted this and wondered:

Ecowas is preparing a force of up to 3,000 soldiers which could be deployed to stop the rebel advance.

In a side bar comment:

Regional defence chiefs of staff are drafting plans for a potential military intervention. But it would still take weeks and outside logistical help before it could be deployed.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17642276

France has said it will help with logistics and IIRC previous ECOWAS expeditions have had financial support from elsewhere.

[davidbfpo]

An excellent overview of the situation in northern Mali and hat tip to SWC Blog:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/author/matzahwarrior/

A couple of key passages:

The rush to capitalize on the dissolution of Mali’s army in the north has brought to the fore deep conflicts between the MNLA and the salafist-inspired Ansar Al-Din, and brought two terrorist groups who call northern Mali home – Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its “splinter” group the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) out of the woodwork.

This I expect contributed to the mutiny, my emphasis:

Following a siege of the military base at Aguelhoc at the end of January, photos and reports out of the city spoke of “summary executions” of nearly 100 Malian soldiers at Aguelhoc

[KingJaja]

David,

Where are the 3,000 troops going to come from?

Apart from Nigeria, who has the military means to pull it off? Ghana? Senegal? Guinea?

I don't see much enthusiasm from the Nigerian Army to go on another military adventure, their hands are full - Boko Haram, Niger Delta, Darfur etc.

[davidbfpo]

I am sceptical that ECOWAS can assemble the will and capability for 3k troops to deploy in Mali. If they had announced a civil-military observer mission to be deployed soon that would make sense; one led by a French-speaking nation too as French remains the daily language IIRC.

As for an ECOWAS intervention against the rebels that is "pie in the sky" from my "armchair". Given the terrain, distance and being on their home ground one hopes there is sensible military advice aplenty.

Now, whether other parties see a need to act is a moot point. In particular the USA if AQIM leaders are in one place long enough, more likely is Algeria either now to rescue it's diplomat(s) or after a delay to deliver pain.

[Uboat509]

A hundreds of km long desert rail line between iron ore deposits and a harbour requires no statistics in order to tell me that they have mineral resources to speak of.

Probably not enough to survive on and even then it would require the Mauritanians to give those resources up. I would not bet on that.

[davidbfpo]

A Stratfor article 'Africa's Tuareg Dilemma' by Robert D. Kaplan, who visited Mali years ago which is a good background read and then reflects on what has happened:http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/afr...obert-d-kaplan

The real fundamental drama will play out gradually, outside the strictures of media accounts. This drama will be about how, and whether, Africa's recently impressive economic growth rates can lead to the creation of larger middle classes. It is larger middle classes that lead, in turn, to more efficient and vigorous government ministries, and to more professional militaries, so that hinterlands might be brought under control and artificially drawn borders made more workable. The Saharan countries, in this regard, are a more extreme version of the larger African challenge, as the desert has created the largest dichotomy of populations within the continent.

[KingJaja]

Slightly tangential.

I think we are losing sight of an extremely important and obvious event - the speed at which the Malian state fell apart.

That, not elections nor "a restoration of democracy" or even "the presence of AQ/Boko Haram" is what should keep us worried.

[davidbfpo]

KingJaja asked:

I think we are losing sight of an extremely important and obvious event - the speed at which the Malian state fell apart.

Kaplan referred to the fragility of many African countries in his article, so it is noteworthy that today in FP Blog there is an article, which starts with:

In a continent that doesn't have much of a reputation for liberal governance, Mali stood out. For the past twenty years this country of 12 million people has stuck doggedly to democratic principles. In 1991, Malians overthrew a military dictatorship and convened a national assembly that drew up a constitution guaranteeing freedom of the press, far-reaching decentralization, and presidential elections every five years. In the years since then, the people of this Muslim-majority country have consistently managed to stick to those principles.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._harm?page=0,0

Note the FP article also asks a far wider question, about the impact of intervention in Libya:

The lesson: Even in situations where there is ample justification for using force against dictators or war criminals, policymakers would be well-advised to take a good look at the possible negative side effects of their actions.

[KingJaja]

Unrelated. Talks about the proliferation of weapons from Libya. If Somali pirates have them, then they are most certainly in Mali/Nigeria.

(Reuters) - Somali pirates have acquired sophisticated weaponry, including mines and shoulder-held missile launchers from Libya, and are likely to use them in bolder attacks on shipping, a senior maritime security analyst said on Thursday.

"We found that Libyan weapons are being sold in what is the world's biggest black market for illegal gun smugglers, and Somali pirates are among those buying from sellers in Sierra Leone, Liberia and other countries," said Judith van der Merwe, of the Algiers-based African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism.

"We believe our information is credible and know that some of the pirates have acquired ship mines, as well as Stinger and other shoulder-held missile launchers," Van der Merwe told Reuters on the sidelines of an Indian Ocean naval conference.

After Libya's ruler Muammar Gaddafi was killed by rebels in the north African state, weaponry from his well-stocked arsenals made its way onto the black market, she said.

The information was gathered from interviews with gun smugglers, pirates and other sources, said Van der Merwe.

Pirates operating from the Somali coast have raked in millions of dollars in ransoms from hijacking ships and a report in 2011 estimated that maritime piracy costs the global economy between $7 billion and $12 billion through higher shipping costs and ransom payments.

Warships from NATO, the European Union and other affected countries deployed in the Gulf of Aden have had only limited success in combating pirate attacks, mainly because of the huge expanse of sea that needs surveillance, some 2.5 million square miles.

"What we are seeing is a decrease in the number of successful attacks, but an increase in the ransom amounts paid out, and the fear is that better armed pirates could risk more or pose a greater challenge when facing capture," Van der Merwe said.

Pirates have attacked as far away as the Indian coast, about 1,000 nautical miles away, and are increasingly turning their attention southwards towards South Africa.

A former commander of naval Task Force 151, one of the multi-national forces in the Gulf of Aden, said pirates usually surrendered when faced with the massive firepower of naval vessels.

"At this stage we are seeing no evidence the pirates of Somalia are having any weapons beyond the AK47s and RPGs," Rear Admiral Harris Chan of the Singapore Navy told Reuters at the conference.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...83B0HO20120412