Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[ganulv]

Seems like the World has forgotten Mali and is resigned to two states - Mali in the South and "Azawad" in the North.

The longer Azawad remains a de-facto state, the more difficult it would be to reverse the situation on the ground.

In any case, it is a sign of things to come.

One of my university classmates who is affiliated with the Dogon Language Project returned to Africa last week to resume fieldwork. The project has moved their base of operations from Mali to Burkina Faso due to the political situation and I am not sure if they are plan to do some work north of the border. In any case, after she has been there long enough to get caught up on the scuttlebutt I will make inquiries and report back.

[davidbfpo]

This was a question asked by KingJaja a few days ago.

Given the state of flux inside Mali, one could reverse the question. Has Mali forgotten the World?

I am uncertain that there are reporters in situ in Bamako and certain that no-one is in the rebellious north. Maybe specialists are producing reports and these simply don't reach the BBC for example.

Today there is this report, note without a byline:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-collapse.html

One hopes that in Mali there are wise minds applied to encouraging the two groups to diverge; one thing is for certain the diplomatic noises of ECOWAS will only be heard by ECOWAS.

A more strategic 'ungoverned spaces' article, hat tip to Carl Prine, by an ex-CIA operator: http://www.andmagazine.com/content/phoenix/12253.html

I am not convinced about his title and this sentence:

Northern Mali, called Azawad by the locals, may be the newest Afghanistan.

[davidbfpo]

First there were reports of conflict between Tuareg MNLA rebels and the Ansar Dine Islamist group (aligned to AQIM), two weeks ago and my previous post:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18104236

Now the BBC reports they are shooting at each other, not in Timbucktu, but further east:

Two rebel groups that seized northern Mali two months ago have clashed following protests in the town of Kidal...

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18377168

Worth reading the blog piece by a FT journalist who has been on the ground:http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2012/0...-rice-on-mali/

Almost sounds like 'divide and rule' is alive and well. Hopefully the locals can resolve this themselves, with the odd nudge from outside - preferably by those who know the ground, yes 'Uncle Sam' that might not be you.

[davidbfpo]

An article by Andrew Lebovich on Al-Wasat blog as he explains, with plenty of links:

This post is my attempt to sort through some of the current popular attitudes about the security situation in northern Mali, the very real risks to regional and international security that may be looming in the north, and the equally real constraints on militant groups attempting to impose shari’ah in northern Mali or project force beyond Mali’s already porous (or nonexistent) borders.

Link:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2012/0...t-afghanistan/

[davidbfpo]

A BBC report:

Islamist forces in northern Mali have seized the town of Gao after clashes with Tuareg-led rebels. At least 20 people have been killed and the political leader of the Tuareg-led movement has been wounded.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18610618

[davidbfpo]

A London-based RUSI analyst commentary which starts with:

In the aftermath of the Mali coup, northern secessionists have declared an independent Islamic state. With verifiable links to Al-Qa'ida, there is a real risk that 'Azawad', as it is known, will become the next wellspring of instability and terrorism in Africa.

She ends with:

Yet, the hope is that, on this occasion, a strategy of action will be agreed swiftly enough to prevent Mali from becoming the next terrorist sanctuary.

Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4FCF45F14B819/

I remain unconvinced that such a desolate, thinly populated area with very few external links requires an external - let alone a US - response.

[davidbfpo]

I am sure the news from Timbucktu has intruded with a reminder that the distant past can affect today, as reported by the BBC for example:

The town's ancient Islamic shrines - the mausoleums of local Sufi saints - are being methodically torn down, and ploughed back into the Saharan sands, by militant outsiders who believe, scrupulously, that intolerance is a virtue.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18723035

Plus the diplomatic froth over intervention:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18728950

Paul Rogers has a review piece, with good points on keeping out being made:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...d-intervention He notes:

Nigeria, Niger and Senegal - are reported to be prepared to furnish a large part of a planned 3,270-strong force.