Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[davidbfpo]

An article by Andrew Lebovich on Al-Wasat blog as he explains, with plenty of links:

This post is my attempt to sort through some of the current popular attitudes about the security situation in northern Mali, the very real risks to regional and international security that may be looming in the north, and the equally real constraints on militant groups attempting to impose shari’ah in northern Mali or project force beyond Mali’s already porous (or nonexistent) borders.

Link:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2012/0...t-afghanistan/

[davidbfpo]

A BBC report:

Islamist forces in northern Mali have seized the town of Gao after clashes with Tuareg-led rebels. At least 20 people have been killed and the political leader of the Tuareg-led movement has been wounded.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18610618

[davidbfpo]

A London-based RUSI analyst commentary which starts with:

In the aftermath of the Mali coup, northern secessionists have declared an independent Islamic state. With verifiable links to Al-Qa'ida, there is a real risk that 'Azawad', as it is known, will become the next wellspring of instability and terrorism in Africa.

She ends with:

Yet, the hope is that, on this occasion, a strategy of action will be agreed swiftly enough to prevent Mali from becoming the next terrorist sanctuary.

Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4FCF45F14B819/

I remain unconvinced that such a desolate, thinly populated area with very few external links requires an external - let alone a US - response.

[davidbfpo]

I am sure the news from Timbucktu has intruded with a reminder that the distant past can affect today, as reported by the BBC for example:

The town's ancient Islamic shrines - the mausoleums of local Sufi saints - are being methodically torn down, and ploughed back into the Saharan sands, by militant outsiders who believe, scrupulously, that intolerance is a virtue.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18723035

Plus the diplomatic froth over intervention:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18728950

Paul Rogers has a review piece, with good points on keeping out being made:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...d-intervention He notes:

Nigeria, Niger and Senegal - are reported to be prepared to furnish a large part of a planned 3,270-strong force.

[AdamG]

Intervening in Mali: West African Nations Plan Offensive against Islamists and Tuareg Rebels
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 10 Issue: 13
July 5, 2012 08:00 AM Age: 2 days
By: Andrew McGregor

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_...af0a9045e8997a

As Tuareg rebels battle radical Islamists with heavy weapons for control of the northern Mali city of Gao, Mali and the other 15 nations of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are planning a military offensive designed to drive both groups out of northern Mali in an effort to re-impose order in the region and prevent the six-month old conflict from destabilizing the entire region. So far, however, operational planning has not been detailed enough to gain the approval of the UN Security Council for authorization of a Chapter Seven military intervention, leaving ECOWAS and the African Union with the option of delaying the campaign or proceeding without UN approval.

Good assessment of the Malian Army, in particular

Mali’s military will be handicapped in their re-conquest of the north by the absence of its elite unit, the “Red Beret” parachute commando regiment of some 600 men under the command of Colonel Abidine Guindo. The regiment, which doubled as the presidential guard, was officially disbanded by the putschists after it remained loyal to ex-President Amadou Toumani Touré and succeeded in spiriting Touré out of the country before he could be arrested. A failed counter-coup led by the “Red Berets” on April 30 complicated matters further, with members of the regiment now being put on trial for opposing the new government.

[ganulv]

sex with African prostitutes can result in drastically diminished combat effectiveness.

[davidbfpo]

Yes another FP article on intervention in Mali, the authors is:

Gregory Mann is a professor of history at Columbia University, specializing in the history of francophone Africa, and of Mali in particular.

Article:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...ctly?page=full

Hard work is required and the final paragraph sums it all up:

So what is to be done? Ultimately, Malians themselves will have to take the lead in resolving a crisis that has endangered their neighbors. Outside actors can only help all sides seek an honorable way to make the Malian north safe again, partly by working to get Bamako to accept the assistance of its neighbors. At the moment, foreign military intervention, whether it comes from ECOWAS or elsewhere, will be viewed as an invasion in both the south and the north. That has to change, which means that politics has to come first. A political solution will be harder to achieve than a military one, but you get what you pay for.